US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4838

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004838 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE: NOT FOR INTERNET POSTING 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR OPS CENTER 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: KDEM, PREL, PGOV, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT:  KENYA'S CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: ORANGE 
CRUSH OF KIBAKI'S HOPES 
 
REFTEL: NAIROBI 4835 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Kibaki acknowledged the 
defeat of the proposed new constitution at mid- 
afternoon November 22, with the "no" vote decisively 
ahead in Kenya's constitutional referendum.  "No" 
supporters had already been celebrating their not-yet- 
official victory.  The Electoral Commission of Kenya 
confirmed the result a few minutes later, followed by 
an Orange ("no") press conference.  The results are 
clearly a rebuke to the President, who was strongly 
behind the proposed constitution, and his government. 
It is also a rebuke of the "Big Man" presidential 
concept, and of a perceived attempt by the Kikuyu 
ethnic group to achieve hegemonic power.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) At 1500 hours local time on November 22, with 
the vast majority of the votes counted, President 
Kibaki made a short statement in Kiswahili conceding 
the defeat of the proposed new constitution in the 
previous day's national referendum.  The concession 
seemed inevitable, as the Orange or "no" vote had 
gained "an unassailable lead" of around a million 
votes by morning.  Shortly after the President's 
speech, the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) 
confirmed the results, announcing that 2,523,918 
"yes" votes versus 3,548,477 "no" votes had been 
counted (this is 58 percent versus 42 percent of the 
counted "yes" and "no" votes).  (Of provinces, only 
the (mostly Kikuyu) Central Province of Kenya's eight 
provinces delivered a "banana" or "yes" vote.)  The 
ECK noted that while a few of Kenya's 210 
constituencies had not been able to vote or had not 
yet reported their results, the additional votes 
could not affect the outcome. 
 
3. (U) At the "Orange" press conference that followed 
the ECK announcement, the LDP's Raila Odinga spoke 
briefly, then handed the floor to KANU's Uhuru 
Kenyatta.  Uhuru said Kenyans have shown they do not 
want an imperial presidency, but accountable 
leadership.  He said the "no" vote was despite the 
"illegal" use of state power and resources by the 
other camp.  Kenya has rejected the politics of 
"sycophancy and dictatorship," he said.  Kenyatta 
appealed to Central Province to "reject leadership 
that isolates you," and invited the Banana team to 
work with the Orange team on constitutional reform. 
He also invited all Kenyans, of every persuasion, to 
come to Uhuru Park November 26 for prayers and 
thanksgiving.  Odinga then asked a bishop present to 
offer prayer for "those killed in cold blood by 
brutal security services." 
 
4. (U) "Orange" supporters have been shown dancing 
and celebrating in the streets in various towns of 
Kenya since mid-morning.  In the late morning there 
was also a group of "orange" supporters at the 
Kenyatta International Conference Center (where the 
national tally is being conducted) who were demanding 
a permit from the government to hold a victory rally 
in Uhuru Park today, as well as demanding that the 
government concede the orange victory.  (NOTE: the 
concession took place, the permit was unnecessary. 
END NOTE.)  To this point, there have been no reports 
of violence at such celebrations. 
 
5. (SBU) The Embassy has received reports of some 
suspiciously high turnouts in perhaps a dozen Orange 
constituencies.  While these seem likely to involve 
fraud, it does not appear that there has been a 
significant impact on the national result. 
 
6. (U) Uhuru Kenyatta, head of KANU, the old ruling 
party (and an "Orange" stalwart), spoke gracious 
words on Kenya television about the referendum being 
about a constitution for the whole nation of Kenya, 
not about one ethnic group or individual losing or 
winning.  (NOTE: Kenyatta's largely Kikuyu home 
constituency voted "yes" in the referendum, in what 
some saw as a personal rebuke to him for breaking 
ranks with his tribesmen. END NOTE.)  Embassy has not 
received reports of any major pro-"yes" government 
official other than the President reacting to the 
preliminary results.  A number of Kenyan commentators 
called it a crushing political blow for the President 
and his supporters in the government. 
 
COMMENT 
 
7. (SBU) It is impossible to see the referendum 
result as anything but a stinging rebuke to President 
Kibaki and the ruling group around him.  Despite last- 
minute backpedaling, the President clearly committed 
his own prestige to the "yes" side.  In addition, the 
earlier "Bomas" draft had held to Kibaki's 2002 
bargain with Raila Odinga and his allies: Kibaki was 
to get the presidency, the rest of the country was to 
get a "non-imperial" president in the future 
constitution.  That is the bargain that Kibaki 
clearly broke, maneuvering until he got the now- 
rejected draft (which if anything made the Presidency 
stronger than before).  Kibaki will have to make 
compromises even to govern until the 2007 elections. 
Whether he will be a viable presidential candidate in 
those elections is not clear, but he has certainly 
been weakened politically. 
 
ROWE