US embassy cable - 05MINSK1409

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001409 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y (ADDING SIGNATURE) 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, BO 
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT POLLS FALL UNDER GOB CONTROL 
 
 
Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  On November 12, the GOB announced that all 
independent polling institutions must receive accreditation by a 
special panel of the Belarusian National Academy of Sciences.  The 
resolution enumerates several requirements the pollsters must meet 
in order to receive accreditation, which the BNAS can take away at 
any time.  Although the GOB insists that BNAS' control over 
independent polling institutions will ensure quality, this 
regulation is another example of the GOB's efforts to control 
access to independent information.  End Summary. 
We'll Take Over From Here 
------------------------- 
 
2. (U) On November 12, the Belarusian Council of Ministers adopted 
a resolution stating any institution wishing to conduct and publish 
public opinion polls on issues such as countrywide referendums, 
presidential and parliamentary elections, or the political 
situation in Belarus must first receive accreditation from a 
special panel of the Belarusian National Academy of Sciences 
(BNAS).  The resolution gives BNAS the authority to monitor the 
activities of the polling institutions and to revoke accreditation 
at any point if it finds irregularities in activities or if the 
released poll contains biases or is unreliable. 
 
3. (U) GOB officials claim this resolution will ensure polling 
quality standards, especially in the run-up to the 2006 
presidential elections.  They reasoned the number of polls will 
increase during the election campaigns.  In order for polls to 
accurately reflect the situation in Belarus, the polling 
institutions need a certain level of expertise.  In addition, 
Central Election Commission Chairwoman Lidiya Yarmoshina praised 
the resolution as a method of stamping out surveys aimed at 
"manipulating public sentiments." 
 
Requirements for Accreditation 
------------------------------ 
 
4. (U) Central Election Committee Secretary Nikolai Lozovik noted 
that applicants wishing to conduct polls must meet "quite simple 
requirements."  For a pollster to be considered for accreditation, 
it must employ two polling experts and two labor or civil issues 
specialists, all of whom must have at least three years of work 
experience and degrees in sociology or political science.  The 
applicant must apply in writing to the BNAS in advance of 
conducting the poll.  The application must clearly state the 
purpose and timeframe of the poll in addition to who funded and who 
requested it.  BNAS will make a decision on the application within 
fifteen days of receipt.  If the results of the poll are to appear 
in the press, the polling institution must submit to the BNAS all 
information about the poll, including the interviewing methods 
used, the list of questions asked, and explanations of the 
verification procedures employed.  If the published poll contains 
any distortion of facts or suggests violations of the law, BNAS can 
demand that the institute publish the correct findings within two 
weeks.  The resolution gives BNAS the authority to revoke 
accreditation at any point if it finds irregularities in activities 
or if the released poll contains biases or is unreliable. 
 
Independent Pollsters Express Their Concern 
------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) On November 18, Poloff met with the director of the NOVAK 
Research and Polling Organization, Andrey Vardomatskiy, to discuss 
the effects of the regulation on the two main independent polling 
institutions in Belarus.  Vardomatskiy stated that even if the GOB 
enforced the regulation, it would still be ineffective since it is 
possible to conduct polls in Belarus from abroad.  He also 
considered the GOB's regulation to be a clear signal to the rest of 
the world that the election will be neither free nor fair. 
 
6. (C) Vardomatskiy, however, did express some concerns about the 
potential impact the regulation could have on polling in Belarus 
and proposed a method to combat the effect.  He suggested having 
several international polling institutions apply for accreditation. 
Once they receive accreditation, they would employ NOVAK secretly 
as a subcontractor.  In addition, Vardomartskiy was apprehensive 
about the BNAS' ability to demand access to the pollsters' 
verification procedures since NOVAK then would not be able to 
protect the anonymity of its participants.  GOB access to 
participants' personal information and responses could lead to 
increased hesitancy of people who do not support the state to 
participate in polls or could also affect the veracity of 
participants' answers. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7. (C) The GOB issued a similar edict to control polling after the 
2001 presidential elections, but never fully implemented it.  With 
the impending 2006 presidential elections, the GOB is taking more 
seriously the manipulation of public opinion and limitations on 
information access.  This edict will also likely be used to block 
exit polling and tracking polling to keep accurate popularity 
figures from being made public.  The GOB will most likely use its 
control over the polling institutions as a means to declare that 
the 2006 presidential elections were free and fair; government 
control over public opinion reporting is a clear signal that the 
authorities have no intention of conducting a free, fair democratic 
election. 
KROL