US embassy cable - 05ADDISABABA3911

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 003911 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR A/S DR. FRAZER, DAS YAMAMOTO FROM VICKI HUDDLESTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2015 
TAGS: PREL, EAID, PGOV, ET, EE BORDER, UNREST, ELEC 
SUBJECT: MELES MORE UPBEAT ON INTERNAL SITUATION AND E/E 
BORDER 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary and Action Request:  I met with Prime Minister 
Meles Saturday afternoon on internal and border issues. 
Meles rejected the possiblity of CUDP jailed leaders being 
released, but promised that the democratic process would 
proceed with a review of Parliamentary rules, NEB -- National 
Elections Board  -- and Media capacity building, and 
continued released of the thousands of detainees, but no 
access by the international community.  (Families, lawyers 
and the Ethiopian Prison Fellowship have met with the 
political detainees and Meles said the Fellowship would visit 
the large detention camps.)  Post would appreciate DOS/USAID 
contacting ARIES about providing assistance to the NEB and 
consider an assistance package to improve the public and 
private media. He thanked the USG for its principled stand. 
On Eritrea/ Ethiopian border situation, Meles said the 
situation was "bad but not that bad."  Isaias may undestand 
that he cannot win a war.  Ethiopia and Eritrea can manage 
the border, Ethiopia will not reoccupy all of the TSZ if 
UNMEE withdraws as the two countries have in the past and can 
again manage the border. (UNMEE Deputy told me that Ethiopia 
this weekend occupied post #885 on the Asab road when UNMEE 
withdrew.)  Meles recognized USG role was not unhelpful in 
negotiating the UNSC resolutions, but asked why we objected 
to the paragraph on dialogue suggested by Benin since that is 
the USG position? end summary. 
 
 2. (C)  I opened the discussion with Prime Minister Meles by 
telling him that I was pleased that despite his concerns he 
had not asked me to cancel the lunch for the opposition 
parliamentarians and the CUDP leaders not arrested.  My 
purpose was to give them an opportunity to exchange views as 
they had been unable to meet since the demonstrations.  Our 
view remained that they should enter Parliament and take 
responsibility for the management of Addis Ababa, but this 
was difficult given the high tensions and mistrust.  Now 
would be a good time for government to seize the initiative 
and move forward on dialogue, Parliamentary review, capacity 
building for the NEB, and international access to detainees 
in the military camp in Dedesa.  We were pleased that the 
Parliament and the City government remained open to the 
Opposition, but surprised and concerned about the NEB's 
decision that Merera was no longer the head of his OLP party. 
 Taking these steps would not only improve the domestic 
situation but demonstrate to the international community that 
he remained committed to democracy. 
 
3.   (C)  Prime Minister Meles replied that one chapter had 
been shut with the CUDP's fomenting of street action.  Their 
unacceptable actions were a threat to democracy and had been 
going on since May. He had warned them personally and the 
international community as well.  Now there was no turning 
back.  If we imagined that they would be released we were 
mistaken.  They would not.  In fact to do so would threaten 
democracy because it would foster a disrespect for the laws 
of the country.  The population would believe that the 
international community handed out justice not the 
government. The government would arrest and try those guilty 
of insurrection.   Some members of embassies continued to 
harbor some CUDP leaders on the wanted list but that 
situation would not be allowed to continue. 
 
4.   (C)   Now a new chapter was opened.  The task of the 
government would be to create a permissive environment that 
would allow the reforms agreed upon in the dialogue to move 
ahead. In this regard Meles continued to wants to continue 
the political dialogue initiated by the US and UN with the 
legal opposition.  To promote democratic procedures he would: 
 
          --  Review Parliamentary procedures either in-house 
or with the assistance of the international community. The 
rules would be changed if they were not in compliance with 
international standards, but they could also be changed if 
they did not work well for Ethiopia; 
 
          --   Accept capacity building assistance for the 
NEB, preferable from AIRES, as they had prior experience. 
When I complained that the current Chairman was waiting for 
the new Board to be named before accepting international 
assistance, Meles said that he would tell him to go ahead 
now; and 
 
          --   Assure fair access to the media in cooperation 
with the Parliamentary opposition, and he planned to work 
with the donors to provide training for the media.  (I 
suggest we take advantage of this opening by providing 
assistance to both government and private media.) 
 
 
5.  (C)   As for the detainees, he would not permit access by 
the international community or by the ICRC.  The Ethiopian 
Prison Fellowship had already had access to the CUPD leaders 
and would also visit the holding facilities where thousands 
are held. He would not allow the ICRC or international 
community to visit because the donors -- in the EU - US 
Ambassadors' Statement had called upon him to do so. The 
Statement was a public demand and that was unacceptable, 
especially as it had followed his Statement a day earlier. As 
a result, only the items in the Ambassadors' Statement which 
he had already agreed to do and were democratic obligations - 
Parliament, NEB, Rule of Law, and Media -- would be done.   I 
replied that he was punishing us to make a point.  Our 
Statement was designed to be helpful by showing the way 
forward and, frankly, it was absolutely necessary given the 
massive arrests, deaths, and violence. Meles said he was 
insulted. The British had withdrawn some development 
assistance, demanding that the CUDP leadership be released 
but "that would be over my dead body."   I said I regreted 
that he had felt personally insulted. Meles replied that he 
did not harbor any ill will toward the ambassadors. 
 
6.  (C) Meles said he appreciated the principled position of 
the US; he is pleased with it.  Ethiopia would move ahead 
with development and with democratic reform with our without 
CUDP.  I said I hoped speedily - he concurred.   I told him 
that A/S Jendayi Frazer and DAS Yamamoto would be giving 
press interviews in the international and Diaspora media, 
indicating our concerns. Meles reiterated that for the good 
of the country, it must be democratic. 
 
------------------------- 
ERITREA - ETHIOPIA BORDER 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Meles characterized the border situation as "bad but 
not that bad."  He had seen the latest version of the UNSC 
resolution that included sanctions. But there was no way 
forward other than dialogue.  Meles said, "this is not a 
face-saving maneuver rather it is the only way to proceed 
because to do otherwise would result in war."  Meles said he 
didn't know why we were so worried, there would only be war 
if Isaias wants war.  As long as Isaias is not prepared to go 
to war the two governments - as they had in the past -- could 
manage the border.  I said that FM Seyoum had told Ambassador 
Oshima that Ethiopia would reoccupy the Temporary Security 
Zone if UNMEE withdrew.  Meles said no -- that was possiblity 
a misunderstanding -- Ethiopia and Eritrea could resolve the 
issue of managing the TSZ if neither wished to go to war. 
UNMEE is a good tripwire but it is not essential.  If UNMEE 
pulls out we would not take back our land. 
 
8.  (C)  Meles said that if the US tries to force demarcation 
without dialogue, this will strain our relations. For his 
part Isaias will not be forced by sanctions or otherwise. 
But he is not unduely worried about war starting without 
UNMEE.  Isaias might misunderstand but he (Meles) thinks that 
Isaias now understands because of Ethiopia's strong stand and 
the quick end to internal violence.  I asked if Meles would 
remove the "in principle" words in his five point plan and if 
Ethiopia would attend a meeting of the EEBC as the US or the 
UN would move forward a strategy for meetings with the 
Witnesses and the EEBC.  Meles replied that the international 
community had urged him to use the words "agree in principle" 
to the demarcation set by the EEBC, and that Ethiopia would 
never attend a meeting of the EEBC.  The Chairman of the EEBC 
could be the Eritrea Foreign Minister he was so biased. The 
EEBC has taken a "political stand." 
 
9.  (C)  The Prime Minister asked why the USG has opposed the 
proposal by Benin to include a paragraph advocating dialogue 
since this was our position.  I said that I understood that 
our concern was procedural. He asked that we reconsider. 
Turning to Isaias again he said that the worst thing the UNSC 
could do was to give Isaias reason to act.  We should just 
ignore him as he was "jumping up and down on his bed to gain 
attention and to get us to act."  Meles argued that the 
Algiers Agreement is a bilateral agreement.  Altough UNMEE 
has the responsibility and right to enforce the border 
agreement, one state can renounce a bilateral agreement if 
they wished.  Did the UNSC interfere in the Nigerian / 
Cameroon border dispute?  Why did it insist on interfering 
where it has no authority? 
HUDDLESTON