US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1988

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001988 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, CE, Elections, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION LEADER'S VIEWS ON LOST 
ELECTION, PEACE PROCESS 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1975 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and ( 
d) 
 
1. Summary:  On November 22, the Ambassador met with Ranil 
Wickremesinghe, leader of the opposition United National 
Party (UNP) and unsuccessful candidate in the November 17 
presidential election by a margin of under 200,000 votes. 
Wickremesinghe expressed surprise that the Liberation Tigers 
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) blocked Tamils in the north and east 
from voting-- a move that probably cost him the presidency. 
He also offered his view that newly elected President Mahinda 
Rajapakse will have a difficult time moving the peace process 
forward and stated that he (Wickremesignhe) would remain at 
the helm of the UNP.  While many expected Wickremesinghe to 
step down as UNP head after his electoral defeat, his staying 
power attests to dynastic influence in Sri Lankan politics. 
End summary. 
 
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ELECTION RESULTS 
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2. (C)  At a November 22 meeting with the Ambassador, 
opposition United National Party (UNP) leader  and 
unsuccessful presidential candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe 
noted that he had not expected the Liberation Tigers of Tamil 
Eelam (LTTE) to block Tamils from voting in the north and 
east.  He speculated that if current president Mahinda 
Rajapakse had won the election with Tamils in those regions 
permitted to vote, then the LTTE might have made the case 
that Rajapakse's Sinhalese nationalist supporters were 
intractable and unwilling to accommodate the Tamil minority. 
However, Wickremesinghe posited, the LTTE undermined that 
claim and squandered any potential international sympathy by 
not letting Tamils vote.  He assessed that the Tigers had not 
accounted for the international condemnation that ensued from 
"hardliners" within the LTTE deciding to prohibit Tamils from 
voting. 
 
3. (C) Wickremesinghe said that the election commissioner 
turned down his request for re-polling in the north and the 
east.  He also said he'd had reports that the French, Dutch, 
and Italian Ambassadors had pressured the EU observer team 
not to insist on re-polling.  However, he said he won't 
pursue the case in court, joking, "We can use that money for 
a good meal!"  He agreed with the Ambassador's assessment 
that the LTTE's campaign of voter intimidation would probably 
ensure that a re-poll would have probably yielded the same 
result.  When the Ambassador asked about reports of names 
being stricken from voter rolls, Wickremesinghe replied that 
if the UNP voters whose names had been culled from election 
roll sheets had been permitted to vote, he would have "won 
the south." 
 
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FUTURE OF THE PEACE PROCESS AND OF THE UNP 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Wickremesinghe pointed out that Rajapakse has "no one 
to advise him on the peace process.  He added that despite 
the LTTE election boycott, he does not envision an immediate 
return to hostilities, and he posited that if the LTTE wants 
to formally break the Cease Fire Agreement, the Tigers will 
engineer an incident that makes the Sri Lankan Army appear to 
be the aggressor with the LTTE taking a "defensive" posture. 
Wickremesinghe said he does not expect LTTE leader Velupillai 
Prabhakaran to make a Unilateral Declaration of Independence 
(UDI) during his November 27 Heroes' Day speech (an LTTE 
equivalent to a State of the Union Address).  However, 
Wickremesinghe said the peace process will hinge on 
Prabhakaran's comments, which may prove to be a "milestone." 
 
5. (C) Countering several November 22 press reports that he 
might give up the party leadership, Wickremesinghe said he 
will stay on, citing "tremendous grassroots pressure" to do 
so.  He said he does not expect general elections anytime 
soon, and the UNP will likely support the new government's 
proposed budget when it is presented in parliament.  He added 
that for now, he expects the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) 
and the Ceylon Workers' Congress (CWC) will remain in the 
opposition with the UNP.  Wickremesignhe also said he sees 
little room for UNP cooperation with the new President on the 
pace process, considering Rajapakse's stated commitment to "a 
unitary state," while the UNP supports a federal solution. 
Wickremesinghe said that he will call on former president 
Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga November 27. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (C) Like many pundits, even Wickremesinghe, who brokered 
the Cease Fire Agreement with the LTTE and probably has the 
most direct experience dealing with the Tigers of any 
national leader, was surprised by the Tigers' decision to 
enforce a boycott on the election.  It remains to be seen how 
the LTTE chooses to move forward, and along with 
Wickremesinghe, we await Prabhakaran's Heroes' Day speech 
with interest. 
 
7. (C) Many had speculated that another loss for 
Wickremesinghe-- totaling losses in 3 out of 4 national 
elections for him-- would spell the end of his political 
career.  His allusion to masses of grassroots supports 
notwithstanding, his continued leadership role in the UNP 
speaks to the power of dynastic politics over viable 
electability within the Sri Lankan context.  End comment. 
 
LUNSTEAD