US embassy cable - 05JAKARTA15147

C O N F I D E N T I A L  JAKARTA 015147 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, KDEM, KISL, ID 
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT MEGAWATI CRITICIZES YUDHOYONO'S 
PERFORMANCE 
 
REF: A. JAKARTA 12416 (OPPOSITION GROUP) 
     B. JAKARTA 2378 (MEGAWATI WORRIES ABOUT ISLAMISTS) 
 
Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason: 1.4 (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) In a November 18 meeting with the Ambassador, former 
President Megawati Soekarnoputri played the part of 
opposition leader to the hilt, expressing dismay with the 
performance of the current administration and President 
Yudhoyono's reliance on Islamist political parties.  Megawati 
downplayed the importance of her participation in a group of 
leading disempowered political figures, but said she would 
guard her party's status as an alternative to the status quo. 
 She worried about implementation of th Ach paceaccr 
and recommended restructuigIdonsi's naionl election 
process.  Megawti,whoremie nde observation after a 
case f dngue fver sad hr husband, Taufik Kiemas, might 
require three more months to recover fully from health 
problems.  End Summary. 
 
RECOVERING FROM DENGUE 
---------------------- 
 
2. (C) Receiving the Ambassador at her Teuku Umar residence, 
former President Megawati appeared relaxed and in a good mood 
despite her relatively recent discharge from the hospital. 
She confirmed press reports that she had suffered from dengue 
fever and said she remained under observation.  She 
attributed the illness to her travels around Indonesia, as 
she sought to consolidate affairs within her Indonesian 
Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P).  Megawati said 
conditions within PDI-P had improved, especially on the 
Central Board, thanks in part to the efforts of party 
Secretary General Pramono Anung. 
 
3. (C) Megawati said her husband, Taufik Kiemas, also 
hospitalized in October, might need another three months to 
recuperate from heart problems.  (Note: According to our 
contacts, Taufik, although now discharged from the hospital, 
suffers from a grave condition and might not fully recover. 
Press reports indicate he needed treatment for heart disease, 
although one contact stated he showed signs of an impending 
stroke when he checked into the hospital.  End Note.) 
 
DISAPPOINTED WITH ADMINISTRATION'S PERFORMANCE 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (C) The Ambassador remarked on the recent success of the 
police in tracking down JeaahIslmiyh bmbmaker Azahari 
Bin Husin.  He rviewedtheEmbssys cntinuing concerns 
about terorsm n Idonsia Speaking in the most general 
trms eawai reported her disappointment with the 
performance of President Yudhoyono.  She said that the 
current situation appeared worse than during her term in 
office.  Cabinet Ministers seemed more partisan than before, 
and the government had become generally less effective. 
 
YUDHOYONO'S WEAKNESS 
-------------------- 
 
5. (C) Yudhoyono's poor performance appeared tied to his weak 
political base, Megawati said.  She noted Yudhoyono received 
little effective support from his own Democratic Party, whose 
Chairman, Hadi Utomo, lacked political vision.  She worried 
that Yudhoyono, despite his own nationalist (read: secular) 
tendencies, seemed overly reliant on Islamist parties, 
particularly the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).  PKS 
appeared to have momentum, while the more inclusive National 
Mandate Party (PAN) appeared in decline, since former PAN 
Chairman Amien Rais' grip on the party had weakened. 
 
6. (C) Megawati estimated that Golkar had moved toward the 
Islamist side of Indonesia's political spectrum ever since 
former House of Representatives (DPR) Chairman Akbar Tandjung 
lost the party chairmanship.  Megawati said Golkar's shift 
reflected current party Chairman Jusuf Kalla's leanings.  A 
recent reshuffle of commission leadership positions in the 
DPR had displaced Akbar's allies, empowered Kalla loyalists, 
and provided opportunities to politicians with an Islamist 
inclination.  (Comment: Allegations of Golkar becoming 
"greener" precede Kalla's chairmanship.  Previously, critics 
complained that Akbar Tandjung imparted more of an Islamic 
tinge to the party.  End Comment.)  These personnel changes 
in the DPR also increased internal friction within Golkar, 
Megawati observed. 
 
ACEH 
---- 
 
7. (C) The Ambassador raised PDI-P's opposition to the Aceh 
peace accord, noting the USG strongly supported resolution of 
the conflict.  Megawati claimed that the Free Aceh Movement 
(GAM) surrender of weapons had proceeded more slowly than it 
should.  She said she heard conditions in Aceh did not appear 
as hopeful as the peace accord might imply.  She worried in 
particular that both the GAM and the GOI would experience 
internal problems as they tried to live up to the agreement. 
(Comment: We disagree with the assessment that GAM's 
surrender of weapons has lagged expectations and see 
Megawati's antipathy toward the Yudhoyono administration 
coloring her perception of the accord and manifesting itself 
in her vague critique.  End Comment.) 
 
OPPOSITION 
---------- 
 
8. (C) The Ambassador requested Megawati's perspective on the 
role of an informal grouping of prominent politicians 
(herself, Abdurrahman Wahid, Akbar Tandjung, Wiranto, and Try 
Sutrisno -- ref A).  Megawati said this group sought to 
receive information on developments in Indonesia and would 
make public statements in order to improve the government's 
functioning.  Noting that only she and Wahid led political 
parties, Megawati said she often felt that PDI-P occupied a 
lonely position in the DPR because Wahid's National Awakening 
Party (PKB) seemed susceptible to influence from Yudhoyono's 
sympathizers.  Megawati said, nevertheless, that PDI-P should 
remain as an alternative to the current administration, 
seemingly confirming press reports that she rejected offers 
to put allies into a reshuffled cabinet. 
 
ELECTORAL SYSTEM 
---------------- 
 
9. (C) Reflecting on the 2004 election, Megawati complained 
that the process had proven overly drawn out, rendering her 
ineffective for the last eight months of her term.  The 
election required an enormous logistical effort to ensure the 
distribution of instructions and materials throughout the 
archipelago, and protecting presidential candidates 
represented a significant burden for the GOI.  Looking ahead, 
Megawati said the DPR should revise the legal framework so 
that the next presidential election took place before the 
legislative election.  She said PDI-P would propose this in 
the DPR. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
10. (C) Despite her recent case of dengue, Megawati appeared 
more relaxed and confident than in her last meeting with the 
Ambassador (ref B).  She might have good reason: PDI-P has 
turned in a stronger performance than its rivals in 
Indonesia's local elections, winning three of seven 
gubernatorial races and outpacing Golkar at the city/regency 
level.  Megawati also likely takes pleasure in seeing 
Yudhoyono come under pressure from political parties 
jockeying for cabinet seats, knowing that the President can 
neither keep his supporters in suspense indefinitely nor 
devise a reshuffle formula that will satisfy all of them. 
Although Megawati has taken note of PKS's impressive growth, 
that party's pragmatic support for the current administration 
leaves PDI-P as the most appealing alternative to the status 
quo -- a good position to hold, as Megawati learned the hard 
way in 2004. 
 
PASCOE