US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI4742

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 004742 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IR, SY, AE 
SUBJECT: UAE -- DAS CARPENTER CALL AT MFA 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHELE J. SISON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
 1. (C) Summary:  November 14, DAS Scott Carpenter met with 
MFA U/S Abdullah Rashid al Noaimi to seek UAEG views on Iran 
and Syria.  Al Noaimi characterized Iran as a dangerous, 
destabilizing force in the region that needs to be treated 
firmly but carefully.  He recommended that the USG 
"depersonalize" its criticism of the Tehran regime in order 
to garner greater support from the Iranian people.  Al Noaimi 
admitted that engagement of Syria is not working and that the 
Asad regime is running out of steam.  He stated that the 
Foundation for the Future will have a "hard time" since GCC 
countries perceive it as taking money from their pockets to 
fund the "opposition." End Summary. 
 
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Iran )- "Dangerous and needs to be checked" 
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2. (C) DAS Carpenter inquired about Iran and how USG policies 
towards Iran are perceived.  Al Noaimi explained that the new 
Iranian regime is of particular concern to the GCC.  The 
recent elections have consolidated power in the hands of the 
extremists and Revolutionary Guard more than ever before, he 
said, and the regime clearly has ambitions beyond its 
borders.  The UAEG is concerned that Iran is using the UAE 
for illegal transshipments, said Al Noaimi; "Iran is 
dangerous and needs to be checked." The Iranians are trying 
to build nuclear weapons and actively interfering in the 
internal affairs of Iraq and Afghanistan, he added.  Iran has 
a long history of expansionism and hegemonic aspirations, 
said Al Noaimi, and asserted that it is commonly accepted in 
the Gulf that Iran will try to destabilize its neighbors as a 
tactic to increase relative power in the region. 
 
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"Neither stick nor carrot alone" 
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3. (C) Queried about strategies to use in dealing with Iran, 
Al Noaimi argued that "neither stick nor carrot will work 
alone."   "Iran," he warned, "is a wildcat.  Don't corner it 
because it will scratch."  He characterized the Tehran regime 
as "Bazaaris": "You need to be serious, stiff, with no sign 
of inability to deal with them.  They will always negotiate 
and make you think that every deal is the final one, but it's 
not true."  Al Noaimi said that what is missing from the USG 
and from the international community is a clear, simple 
statement of why Iran should not have nuclear power/weapons. 
He noted the Iranians, claim that they have the same rights 
to nuclear power as India, Pakistan, or Israel, and that the 
argument is finding sympathy, especially among smaller 
countries. 
 
4. (C) DAS Carpenter pointed out that the USG is not against 
the Iranian people, but against the regime, and inquired how 
USG could convey that message to the Iranians.  Al Noaimi 
replied that as long as the attack is pointed against the 
Iranian President or even the regime, Iranian pride and 
nationalism will lead the people to take the attack 
personally and defend a regime that they also heavily 
criticize.  He advised the USG to adjust its rhetoric in 
order to demonstrate that it is not against specific persons 
or a regime but against policies on principle. 
 
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"Marriage of Convenience": Syria and Iran 
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5. (C) Al Noaimi admitted that engagement of SARG is not 
working, and that the UAEG "no longer understands" Bashar Al 
Asad.  The Syrians think that history is with them, that they 
can outlast any outsiders, and that history will eventually 
vindicate them and their policies.  DAS Carpenter inquired if 
SARG is taking its cues from Iran.  Al Noaimi responded that 
it is simply "a marriage of convenience"; the two governments 
feel that they are being targeted and therefore are 
supporting each other.  Al Noaimi doubted whether the regime 
"realizes that the longer they play with fire (cooperation 
with Iran and Hezbollah) the more likely they are to get 
burned," concluding that the Asad regime is rapidly "running 
out of steam." 
 
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Forum for the Future and Civil Society 
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6. (C) DAS Carpenter described the November 11-12 meetings in 
Manama as successful and productive except for a minor 
problem with Egypt.  Al Noaimi countered that the problem was 
not Egypt alone; that other countries shared Egypt,s 
concerns.  The difficulties arose from inadequate 
preparation.  "The ideas had not cooked enough," He said. 
The concept papers for the Foundation and Fund reminded him 
of the launching of BMENA.  GCC governments would be 
reluctant to accept a Foundation perceived as taking money 
from their pockets and funding hostile organizations, in 
essence the political opposition, he stated.  "How can you 
ask somebody to do something they themselves do not accept?" 
DAS Carpenter pointed out that the Foundation and the Forum 
are separate and that participation in the Foundation is 
voluntary.  He added that conflating civil society and the 
opposition was a vast oversimplification.  Al Noaimi replied 
that the Foundation/Forum is perceived in the Gulf as one 
package:  "You can't ignore the iceberg below the surface 
because you only see the tip."  Al Noaimi said he had never 
heard the term "Civil Society" while studying at Tufts and 
Fletcher.  DAS suggested that his failure to encounter the 
concept perhaps had to do with the fact that "in the United 
States one is swimming in a sea of civil society.  It,s 
literally everywhere." 
 
7.(U) Message cleared by DAS Carpenter. 
SISON