US embassy cable - 05MINSK1405

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001405 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR INR 
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, BO 
SUBJECT: Lukashenko Forming an Obedient Electorate Ahead of the 
Presidential Elections 
 
Refs: A) MINSK 1327, B) MINSK 1193, C) MINSK 607, D) MINSK 
692 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Since the beginning of September, 
Lukashenko has stepped up populist efforts to buy the 
people's support for his election.  At the same time, he has 
intensified his campaign to liquidate opposition forces 
within the media, youth, and workforce in order to prevent 
what he portrays as efforts to destabilize Belarus.  By 
strengthening the status of state-controlled organizations 
and strangling opposition forces, the President is firming 
his grasp on the population ahead of the 2006 election.  End 
Summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Raising the Standard of Living 
------------------------------ 
 
Increasing Money Allowances 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Lukashenko recently increased financial allowances 
and wages for many demographic groups in Belarus.  On 
October 28, the President issued an edict to raise 
disability and survivor benefits by USD 13 to USD 42 per 
month in order to protect the "vulnerable" citizens who 
cannot work. On August 27, Lukashenko ordered an 11 percent 
pension increase to USD 102 per month for all retired 
persons, who make up 25 percent of Belarus' population and 
are a large voting bloc.  On October 19, Lukashenko issued 
an edict calling for a 20-percent increase in all types of 
student allowances so as to "increase their social 
protection" and awarded 1,500 gifted students financial aid 
from his "special" president fund.  Though the increases are 
token and not enough to meet the growing costs of living in 
Belarus, the state media portrays the increases as 
testaments to Lukashenko's concern for his citizens. 
 
Improving Village and Rural Infrastructure 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3. (U) The President recently stated that his goal was to 
provide rural residents jobs and amenities typically found 
only in Minsk.  At the beginning of 2005, Lukashenko 
implemented his five-year, USD 33 billion rural revival 
program (septel) that would provide rural residents with 
cheap new housing, improved schools, farm modernization, gas 
and electricity, roads, and gymnasiums.  He also promised 
that the average wage would reach USD 250 per month by the 
end of 2005.  In October, the President ordered a USD 404 
million remodeling plan for the Zhlobin (Gomel region) 
metallurgical plant (BMZ), the construction of 333 
kilometers of gas lines to supply 12,000 homes in the 
Chernobyl-affected zone with natural gas, the construction 
of a brick plant in Loyev (Gomel region), and he opened gas 
lines in Glutsk (Mogilev).  Other presidential gifts in 2005 
included town face-lifts in Shklov and Alexandria 
(Lukashenko's hometowns) and Slutsk (ref A). 
 
4. (SBU) Comment: Rural residents are happy to have 
remodeled villages and paved roads, but Post has heard 
complaints about shoddy construction work as a result of 
cost saving measures and Lukashenko's unrealistic deadlines. 
The state press, however, overlooks these setbacks and 
continues to portray Lukashenko as a hero for his 
generosity.  In newspapers it is common to see pictures of 
Lukashenko turning on gas valves or opening factories with 
titles such as "I Did What I Promised" or "A USD 160 Million 
Present."  Lukashenko also uses these events to publicly 
criticize and humiliate regional officials for not 
efficiently implementing his policies.  This has allowed him 
to maintain the image that only he, and no one else, is 
capable of helpin the people. End Comment. 
 
--------- 
Stability 
--------- 
 
Media 
----- 
 
5. (U) At the Septmber 30 session of the Belarusian 
Security Counci, Lukashenko claimed the West was using the 
 
MINSK 00001405  002 OF 003 
 
 
opposition to spread destructive information about the GOB 
to foment religious and ethnic conflicts in society, causing 
the people to lose faith in the government.  Lukashenko 
called the campaign an "information war" and named the 
opposition Belarus' domestic enemy. 
 
6. (U) In the course of this "information war", Lukashenko 
has stepped up his campaign against the independent press. 
In late September, the state-owned publishing companies 
annulled their contracts with independent newspaper 
Narodnaya Volya (NV) while authorities ordered the paper to 
pay a USD 45,000 lawsuit settlement (ref B).  In October, 
the GOB controlled postal service stopped carrying NV and 
nine other independent newspapers on its subscription list, 
denying subscribers issues by mail.  The courts also ordered 
the liquidations of regional newspapers, such as Grodno's 
Den and Borisov's Kurier.  Legislation and presidential 
edicts (i.e., the prohibition of 'National and 'Belarusian' 
in an entities title (ref C), slander and defamation of GOB 
officials) constantly put newspapers on the brink of closure 
via fines and registration denials. 
 
7. (U) With the media firmly under control, Lukashenko is 
now trying to bring his propaganda to a larger audience.  On 
October 26, Lukashenko tasked the GOB to review construction 
plans for a 425-meter television tower capable of 
broadcasting 50 channels within a 100-km radius.  In 
addition, he ordered state media officials to conduct 
"aggressive" propaganda of Belarus' image abroad via the 
state owned satellite channel Belarus-TV. 
 
Youth Control 
------------- 
 
8. (SBU) In May the Ministry of Education (MoE) issued a 
memorandum ordering university and school administrators to 
expel students engaged in political activities (ref D) 
because, according to minister Aleksandr Radzkov, politics 
have no place in the classroom.  This obviously meant 
"opposition" politics because on November 16, Radzkov 
claimed school and university heads are political figures 
who should follow and support the state line and prevent 
opposition activists from spreading "disunity" among the 
students.  Apart from expulsions and firings, Post has heard 
reports of authorities threatening student opposition 
activists with military service or village "exile" to 
Chernobyl-contaminated regions. 
 
9. (U) Students are allowed to be politically active, but 
only in the name of the government sponsored Belarusian 
Republican Youth Union (BRYU), formerly the Communist Youth 
Union (Komsamol).  The BRYU has 305,000 members, but at the 
BRYU's 39th conference on September 23, President Lukashenko 
predicted all students and young adults would soon be 
members of the BRYU.  He then called for the resignation of 
school administrators and teachers who are critical of GOB 
efforts to boost BRYU membership.  BRYU's large membership 
is attributed to the fact that it is easier to gain 
admittance to a university or find housing with a BRYU 
membership.  Membership also gives students discounts on 
many services and items from haircuts to movies and, in some 
instances, free cars and apartments. 
 
10. (U) As youth opposition groups are being harassed and 
unable to grow, the BRYU is monopolizing the influence over 
the youth.  On October 26, Lukashenko published his protocol 
calling for the BRYU to be incorporated into all social, 
political, and economic spheres, control all student 
movements, to bolster patriotism in the classroom, help with 
the state's ideology program, and secure the country against 
destabilization efforts.   BRYU members are encouraged to 
preach their pro-GOB beliefs in the classrooms and are 
allowed to hold demonstrations and/or meetings without 
government interference. 
 
Labor 
----- 
 
11. (U) The Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus (FTUB) is 
Belarus' largest trade union with an inflated membership of 
four million. [Comment: The entire Belarusian workforce is 
four million, leaving doubt as to whether this is a true 
figure.]  The FTUB is pro-Lukashenko and, as a reward for 
 
MINSK 00001405  003 OF 003 
 
 
its support, receives privileges from the President that are 
denied to independent trade unions.  In July, the President 
gave the FTUB the authority to inspect all enterprises, 
state owned or private, for compliance with labor 
regulations regardless of whether or not the enterprises 
have FTUB members.  In October, the Ministry of Labor (MoL) 
issued a directive allowing the FTUB to check the wage 
payment system of enterprises and report their findings to 
the MoL. 
 
12. (U) Independent trade unions do not have these 
capabilities and are finding it more difficult to defend 
their constituents' rights.  The contract system continues 
to be an efficient tool for the GOB to control the 
workforce, allowing employers to dismiss a worker for 
his/her beliefs or participation in an independent union. 
The threat of job loss is one of the main reasons why 
independent union membership is falling. Unlike the FTUB, 
union officials are rarely allowed to inspect workplace 
sites or disseminate information without facing fines or 
arrest.  Even rallies and meetings are impossible because 
venues refuse to host any independent union event whereas a 
new presidential decree allows the FTUB to use state-owned 
offices and conference halls free of charge. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13. (SBU) Lukashenko's current campaign strategy is to 
appease the people with carrots while beating back the 
opposition with the many sticks at his disposal and serving 
the public with visions of U.S. inspired destabilization. 
The elderly and disabled will continue to remain quiet as 
long as they continue to receive their meager pensions, 
which is better than no pension at all.  Students, knowing 
that it is next to impossible to find a decent job in 
Belarus without a diploma, are not willing to oppose the 
President if it means their expulsion.  Likewise, workers 
are not going to protest their pay and working conditions or 
participate in the independent labor movement if it means 
job loss.  With the use of government-sponsored 
organizations to control the media, school system, and 
workforce, Lukashenko is hoping to create an ever more 
obedient population.  But we wander how much of the 
resentment he is creating will come back to haunt him and 
his cronies in crime. 
 
KROL