US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4144

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ALMATY 004144 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN (J. MUDGE) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KZ, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: OPPOSITION FIGURE MURDERED AT HOME 
 
REF: A. ALMATY 4074 
     B. 04 ALMATY 2826 
     C. 04 ALMATY 869 
     D. 04 ALMATY 907 
     E. ALMATY 4076 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The murder on November 12 of former 
high-level GOK official, and more recently outspoken 
opposition figure, Zamanbek Nurkadilov has touched off a 
series of rumors and accusations among the Kazakhstani public 
and political elite.  Shot three times at his residence, 
Nurtadilov had reportedly told several people that he was 
planning to reveal compromising information about President 
Nazarbayev before the December 4 presidential elections.  The 
police have launched an energetic investigation, but have not 
yet publicly identified any suspects.  There is no evidence 
that the murder was politically motivated.  End summary. 
 
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Facts of the Case 
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2. (SBU) On November 12, outspoken opposition figure Zamanbek 
Nurkadilov was found dead in his home by his wife, well-known 
singer Makpal Zhunusova (Ref A).  According to the family 
lawyer, he had been shot twice in the chest and once in the 
head.  His own "Cobalt" revolver and a pillow with bullet 
holes in it were found near the body.  President Nazarbayev 
issued a condolence statement and ordered the formation of a 
special operational investigative group from the Almaty 
police to investigate the death.  In a November 15 statement, 
investigators confirmed that Nurkadilov had been shot once in 
the temple, believed to be the fatal wound, and twice in the 
body.  The police are still reviewing physical, ballistic, 
and other forensic evidence, as well as witness statements. 
On November 13 the police announced that they had reviewed 
video footage from the 16 security cameras on Nurkadilov's 
property and determined that no strangers had entered that 
day.  On November 15, investigators termed that analysis 
"preliminary" and announced that that they were reviewing all 
of the footage in detail.   They announced on November 17 
that Nurkadilov's relatives described him as very nervous the 
night before and day of his death.  The investigators have 
not publicly identified any suspects. 
 
3. (C) Nurkadilov was a longtime Nazarbayev ally who split 
with him in spring 2004 over the move of the Agency for 
Emergency Situations, which he then headed, from Almaty to 
Astana.  After calling for Nazarbayev's resignation, 
Nurkadilov was sacked, and became an outspoken critic of the 
administration (Refs B-C).  Following opposition journalist 
Askhat Sharipzhanov's death after being hit by a car in July 
2004, Nurkadilov accused Nazarbayev and then-Presidential 
Administration head (and now Almaty City akim) Imangali 
Tasmagambetov of ordering the killing.  Nurtadilov claimed 
the reason was to suppress information Sharipzhanov had 
obtained in interviews with Nurkadilov and opposition leader 
Sarsenbaiuly (Ref D).  In spring 2005, Nurkadilov announced 
that he had incriminating information about Nazarbayev that 
he had placed in a safe deposit box in Europe.  Although he 
was on the Central Council of the "For a Just Kazakhstan" 
movement, Nurkadilov had not been a visible part of the 
ongoing presidential election campaign. 
 
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Theories of the Crime 
--------------------- 
 
4. (C) Family or business dispute:  Several commentators and 
GOK officials have speculated that, because it appears no 
strangers entered the Nurkadilov family compound on November 
12, he must have been killed by a family member or business 
associate.  The police questioned his widow for four hours on 
November 16.  Zhunusova later issued a statement saying that 
their relationship had been healthy.  Independent journalist 
Sergey Duvanov, who claims to have known the couple well, 
told POEC chief that he did not believe Zhunusova was 
responsible.  He added that Nurkadilov had excellent 
relationships with his two adult children from his first 
marriage.  Duvanov also discounted rumors that Nurkadilov was 
killed over a business dispute, on the grounds that 
Nurkadilov had made all his money while akim of Almaty 
(1997-2001) and had no ongoing business activities. 
 
5. (C) GOK-ordered hit:  Several political analysts, 
including Duvanov in a November 14 kub.kz article, have 
speculated that the authorities had Nurkadilov killed to 
prevent him from going public with compromising information 
about Nazarbayev in the run up to December 4 presidential 
 
elections.  Opposition journalist Yermurat Bapi announced on 
November 14 that Nurkadilov had told him in late October that 
he was getting ready to reveal a "new bomb," i.e. information 
about Nazarbayev.  Duvanov told POEC chief that Nurkadilov 
had told him he planned to make the announcement on December 
1 in Europe.  The "For a Just Kazakhstan" movement issued a 
statement labeling the killing political without elaborating 
on this conclusion.  The vigor with which the authorities 
have begun the investigation would appear to indicate they 
have nothing to hide.  Presidential advisor Karim Masimov 
told the Ambassador that the GOK would do whatever it took to 
ensure a complete investigation, including calling in 
international experts if necessary. 
 
6. (C) Opposition "provocation":  Mazhilis member Mikhail 
Troshikhin appeared to blame the opposition when he said that 
"only destructive forces which want to explode and shake the 
situation in Kazakhstan, which want blood," would benefit 
from Nurkadilov's death.  First daughter and Mazhilis member 
Dariga Nazarbayeva echoed Troshikhin's comments on November 
15, saying that "this tragic death is handy above all for the 
opposition, not for the authorities."  This theory has not 
gained much resonance, likely due to the fact that none of 
the opposition figures is known to have ever resorted to 
force.  Duvanov also pointed out that the fact that the 
opposition did not take action to capitalize on the death 
politically, such as by organizing a protest during the 
funeral, as a sign that they were not behind it. 
 
7. (C) Destabilization by a "third force":  Several political 
analysts have commented publicly and privately that they see 
the murder as an attempt by someone in power to discredit 
Nazarbayev and destabilize the political situation.  DCK 
activist Gulzhan Yergeliyeva stated publicly that the killing 
had been political, by someone seeking to "frame" Nazarbayev. 
  In a conversation with PolFSN on November 14, Nurbulat 
Masanov described Nurkadilov's death as "the first political 
assassination in the history of independent Kazakhstan" and 
said it marked the start of a fight for power between 
influential groups surrounding Nazarbayev.  He opined that 
someone close to the president had ordered the hit in order 
to place Nazarbayev under attack.  Duvanov told POEC chief 
that, despite what he had written, he personally subscribed 
to this theory.  He thought that ruthless, wealthy people 
around the president -- possibly sons-in-law Rakhat Aliyev or 
Timur Kulibayev -- had started the struggle for power by 
discrediting Nazarbayev.  Duvanov thought the person 
responsible could have been reacting to a perceived "detente" 
between the opposition and the authorities following 
Nazarbayev's October 24 statement that he would work with the 
opposition after the election if they behaved responsibly 
(Ref E).  Duvanov added he was beginning to rethink his 
earlier belief that Sharipzhanov's death had been accidental. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) We may never know the truth behind Nurkadilov's death. 
 Nevertheless, it seems clear that neither President 
Nazarbayev himself nor the opposition stood to gain from an 
inconclusive scandal in the weeks before the election.  The 
simplest explanation is the most likely: Nurkadilov was 
killed by someone in his family or close circle of friends. 
Despite this, the way the killing was carried out, the timing 
so close to presidential elections, and Nurkadilov's history 
of threatening to reveal the misdeeds of those in power have 
created a widespread public view that the murder was 
politically motivated,   However, the fact that Nurkadilov's 
own pistol was the murder weapon and that he lived in a 
well-guarded residential compound surrounded by family 
members point to the former rather than the latter theory. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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