US embassy cable - 05SANTODOMINGO5123

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 005123 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA; NSC FOR DAN 
FISK;SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR, Dominican Politics 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS II #8: CHASING THE RED ROOSTER 
- A SCRAMBLE FOR ELECTORAL ALLIANCES 
 
1. (SBU) This is the eighth cable in a series reporting on 
the second year of the administration of Dominican President 
Leonel Fernandez. 
 
Chasing The Red Rooster -- A Scramble For Electoral Alliances 
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Back-room talks on possible party alliances that began last 
month are provoking heated commentary, a sure sign of 
pre-electoral fever. In the country's triad of major parties, 
every political chief dreams of organizing a coalition of two 
against one, to sweep the elections and rake in jobs and 
public money for the party faithful.  Speculation now centers 
on the third-ranked PRSC, the late President Balaguer's 
Reformista Party, whose emblematic red rooster is coveted as 
a partner in the 2006 mid-term elections by both the ruling 
PLD and the main opposition PRD. 
 
Ever since1996, when Balaguer formed the Patriotic Front with 
the PLD and propelled President Fernandez into office for his 
first term, other parties have eyed the Reformistas as 
potential kingmakers.  They drew less than 9 percent of the 
2004 presidential vote, and three years after Balaguer's 
death their depleted ranks retain only 12-13 percent of the 
electorate.  But that would be enough for the PRSC to serve 
as a swing vote to bolster the ruling PLD's rickety 
Congressional and municipal representation or to shore up the 
eroding base of the scandal- and faction-ridden PRD as the 
main opposition party.  Both leading parties have made 
tempting offers to the Reformistas. 
 
Some Reformistas are resisting.  Former PRSC presidential 
candidate Eduardo Estrella has consistently spoken out 
against alliances and said the party should continue its firm 
opposition to the PLD government; PRSC vice president Luis 
Toral has taken up this cry, emphasizing the party's 
"identity and dignity."   PRSC president Federico "Quique" 
Antun announced November 10 that the inter-party talks had 
been "suspended for the moment." 
 
But the PRSC rank and file, weary of having spent nearly a 
decade in the opposition, wouldn't mind having another chance 
at returning to power -- or at least sharing it.  A poll 
published November 14 showed that 76 percent of Reformistas 
favor an alliance with another party for the Congressional 
and municipal elections next May.  Eduardo Estrella's former 
campaign advisor, ex-minister Victor Gomez Berges, has 
admitted to political officer that "there is great pressure" 
from party members on this issue.  According to PRSC 
Congressional spokesman Ramon Rogelio Genao, "We need to 
unite our efforts in search of a national project that will 
result in a development plan for the next 20 years, 
regardless of the color of the party that happens to be in 
the Government."  He added that the poll had provided data on 
which alliance might be "most beneficial" to the PRSC and 
said the party leadership would publish these findings at an 
appropriate time. 
 
An alliance with the ruling PLD would appear to be the PRSC's 
first option.  Many Reformistas felt cheated after the 1996 
election victory when, they complained, their coalition 
partner the PLD excluded them from getting their expected 
share of the spoils.  They branded the PLD as "comesolos" -- 
solitary diners who hogged the opportunities for public 
employment and patronage.   Last year, a small but prominent 
group of Reformistas, led by Carlos Morales Troncoso, broke 
with the rest of the PRSC to support Fernandez and gained 
four senior government jobs.  Another member of this group, 
National Housing Bank president Leonardo Matos Berrido, has 
confirmed publicly that the group will back the PLD in 2006. 
Matos referred to the precedent set by Balaguer, who never in 
his many elections allied with the PRD, which he regarded as 
the PRSC's arch-rival.  Balaguer agreed to link up with the 
PLD as the only means to prevent the PRD from winning the 
presidency. 
 
The PLD, with far fewer legislative seats or municipal 
governments, has been generous in the initial offer by 
presidential chief of staff Danilo Medina and colleagues:  a 
proposed coalition slate would have 16 Reformista senatorial 
candidates out of 32, 60 candidates of 178 for the lower 
house of Congress, and 60 of 150-some mayoral candidates.  By 
comparison, the PRSC currently has 2 senators, 35 
congressmen, and 11 mayors.  The PLD even offered to let 
Reformista Johnny Jones ) currently the party,s 
pre-candidate for mayor of the capital ) run instead for the 
post of senator from the National District.  This would mean 
PLD secretary general Reynaldo Pared Perez would drop out of 
the senatorial race ) and Pared Perez was in the meeting. 
Reformista congressional spokesman Deputy Vctor "Ito" Bisono 
told political officer November 15 that PRSC political 
committee is actively considering the PLD offer. 
 
The top PRD leadership is now engaged in a special working 
group on the issue, including former President Hipolito Mejia 
and 2008 presidential aspirant Miguel Vargas Maldonado.  The 
PRD dominates Congress, controls most of the nation's city 
halls, and is loath to negotiate away those advantages. 
Their latest offer to the Reformistas is calculated to match 
that of the PLD:  12 senatorial candidacies including those 
of the National District and the province of Santo Domingo 
(which make up the capital metro area) and the candidacy for 
Santiago, the nation's second city; 70 candidates for the 
lower house; and 50 mayors.  The latter figures "could be 
increased in the framework of the talks."  PRD National 
District chairman Cesar Cabrera has commented to us that, 
while the PLD might offer more economic advantages to the 
Reformistas, the party could derive more political benefit 
from going with the PRD.  As part of a united opposition, the 
PRSC would be free to formulate its own criticisms of the 
Fernandez administration, and Reformista candidates could 
draw on their party's own proposals during the campaign.  As 
of November 17, PRD secretary general Orlando Jorge Mera, who 
is involved in the talks, was privately optimistic his party 
would clinch the deal with the PRSC. 
 
Similar negotiations prior to the 1998 and 2002 mid-term 
elections proved fruitless.  However this comes out, 
Reformistas are facing the reality that without their beloved 
caudillo, the party is an also-ran.  An alliance would enable 
the PRSC to shrug off pejorative remarks about its becoming a 
"comodin" (joker) in Dominican politics and reaffirm its 
tradition as the party that has ruled longest since Trujillo. 
 But the embrace of either the PRD or especially the PLD 
could prove to be suffocating for the debilitated PRSC. 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted 
at our SIPRNET web site 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo)  along with 
extensive other material. 
HERTELL