US embassy cable - 02HARARE2742

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002742 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF CONFERENCE 
 
Classified By: POLOFF KIMBERLY JEMISON FOR REASONS 1.5 C/D. 
 
 1.  (C) Summary.  The Zimbabwe ruling party,s annual 
conference has been scheduled for December 11-15 in Chinhoyi. 
 No major changes in the ZANU-PF leadership or discussion of 
a Mugabe succession are expected to be announced, although 
the persistent rumor that ailing Vice President Simon Muzenda 
will resign continues to make the rounds.  End Summary. 
 
ANNUAL CONFERENCE 
 
2.  (C) Fred Shava, ZANU-PF,s Director of Administration, 
confirmed to poloff on December 2 that ZANU-PF,s annual 
conference will be held in Chinhoyi on December 11-15. 
Unlike the ZANU-PF congress held every five years, half the 
party,s 6,000 delegates will attend this year,s conference. 
  Harare diplomats will be invited to attend the opening 
ceremony and embassies should receive their invitations 
shortly, the director noted.  Shava described the conference 
as the party,s annual &management review,8 which is 
different from the 5-year congress.  The 5-year congress is 
tasked with electing the party,s 280 member Central 
Committee, whereas according to the ZANU-PF constitution, no 
leadership changes can be made at a conference.  The next 
5-year congress will be in 2006.  (NOTE: Poloff had been 
trying to meet with Shava for 3 months but was always put 
off.  Shava expressed a desire to meet again in February, 
after the December conference and administrative meetings in 
January.  END NOTE.) 
 
3.  (C) This year,s agenda will focus on land reform, price 
controls, international relations, and the economy, according 
to Shava.  Shava seemed particularly interested in the state 
of the economy and repairing international relations.  He 
also said there would not be a discussion of succession--a 
stance seconded by party spokesman, Nathan Shamuyarira, in an 
article in the December 1 edition of the GOZ-controlled 
Sunday Mail.  (NOTE: On November 19, Poloff met with party 
deputy commissar Sikhanyiso Ndlovu who refused to discuss 
party issues, deferring all questions to the Secretary for 
External Affairs, Didymus Mutasa, with whom Poloff has been 
unable to meet. END NOTE.) 
 
COMMENT 
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4.  (C) This year,s ZANU-PF conference promises nothing new. 
 Both the party Director of Administration and the Spokesman 
have dashed any hopes of a party-wide discussion of 
succession by saying there will be no discussion of the issue 
until 2006--two years before the next presidential election 
and one year after the next parliamentary elections.  We 
expect no other major internal changes, although the rumor 
that VP Muzenda will step down because of his failing 
health--reportedly AIDS relate--continues to circulate.  The 
conference will most likely serve as a venue to defend the 
party,s choices that have crippled the economy and 
engendered a grave political crisis.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
SULLIVAN