US embassy cable - 02ANKARA8779

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008779 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLADS AND J-5 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, TU 
SUBJECT: TURKEY: NULLIFICATION OF ELECTION RESULTS IN SIIRT 
OPENS A DOOR TO PARLIAMENT FOR AK LEADER ERDOGAN 
 
 
Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter.  Reason: 
1.5(b)(d) 
 
 
1. (U) Summary: Anatolia News Agency reports Dec. 2 that the 
Supreme Election Board (YSK), acting pursuant to a petition 
filed by the Justice and Development (AK) Party last month, 
has nullified the results of the Nov. 3 elections in 
southeastern Siirt province. Provided AK can push through the 
necessary constitutional and legal changes sufficiently 
before Feb. 2, when the new elections are expected, the YSK 
decision could open a door for AK leader Erdogan to enter 
Parliament -- and assume the prime ministership.  End summary 
 
 
2. (U) The YSK reasoned that ballot box review boards had not 
been established at three polling locations in Siirt's 
Perivari township; one ballot box was also unaccountably 
broken.  In a written statement, the YSK explained that in 
accordance with Art. 39 of Election Law (aka Law No. 2839), 
it has decided unanimously that the problems in Pervari had 
an impact on the election results in Siirt, and that 
nullification of the results is therefore in order. 
 
 
-- According to Election Law Art. 39, when the YSK nullifies 
election results in a province, new elections must be held on 
the first Sunday 60 days after publication of the decision in 
the Official Gazette. 
 
 
-- Since the decision must be published "immediately" -- 
meaning according to accepted practice no later than Dec. 3 
in this case -- elections in Siirt are therefore expected to 
be held on Sunday, Feb. 2. 
 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Opening the Door to Erdogan -- and DEHAP? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
3. (U) According to Anatolia News Agency, given the 
inapplicability of the 10 percent nationwide vote threshold a 
party must clear to enter Parliament, a 33 percent district 
barrier will govern the Siirt elections.  Extrapolation from 
the Nov. 3 results suggests that of Siirt's three M.P.s, one 
would be elected from AK and two from the pro-Kurdish 
Democratic Peoples' Party (DEHAP), which had dominated the 
southeast but failed to get 10 percent nationally. 
 
 
4. (C) Human rights groups -- the Human Rights Association 
(HRA) and Mazlum Der -- welcomed the decision.  The HRA noted 
to us that allegations of abuse in Siirt suggested that 
election-day shenanigans in the province were even worse than 
previously thought.  There were numerous violations beyond 
Pervari aimed, according to HRA, at undercutting DEHAP's 
prospects.  Although the YSK seemed oblivious to DEHAP's 
allegations, the Dec. 2 decision was a good one from the 
human rights perspective in that it reverses the injustice 
done to Siirt voters. 
 
 
5. (U) AK Vice Chairman Mercan told us Dec. 2 that the YSK 
decision could pave the way for AK leader R. Tayyip Erdogan 
to enter Parliament.  He noted that first, AK would seek to 
change: 1) Constitution Article 76, which governs eligibility 
for office, and disqualifies those convicted of "anarchist 
and ideological activities" even if subsequently pardoned; 
and 2) Penal Code Article 312, under which Erdogan was 
stripped of his political rights for having been convicted of 
inciting religious/racial enmity.  Mercan also said AK would 
seek to amend Constitution Article 78, which prohibits 
by-elections within 30 months of a general election. (Note: 
the Siirt election will legally be considered a "new" 
election, not/not a by-election.  End note). 
 
 
6. (C) A long-serving Justice of the Constitutional Court 
(the Turkish Supreme Court) told us Nov. 22 that, 
procedurally, AK can make all the changes it wants in a month 
without much difficulty.  All AK needs to do is establish the 
various parliamentary committees and start debating the 
issues. That said, AK has appeared to be dragging its feet 
for political reasons, trying to make sure its flanks are 
well protected before tackling politically difficult 
constitutional issues.  The Justice asserted that in the 
interests of democratization and reform, it is imperative 
that Erdogan get into Parliament -- and become Prime Minister 
-- as soon as possible. The current divided situation, with 
Erdogan on the sidelines and Abdullah Gul serving as P.M., 
could cause problems down the road. 
 
 
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Comment 
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7. (C) Until now, Siirt's parliamentary contingent was split 
three ways: one each from AK and the Republican People's 
Party (CHP), and one independent -- the notorious Fadil 
Akgunduz, an accused swindler who campaigned for office to 
benefit from the generous grant of immunity given to M.P's 
under Turkish law.  The YSK decision is likely to change that 
balance.  While most observers seem to accept Erdogan's 
resurrection and assumption of the prime ministry as 
inevitable, many Establishmentarians will be concerned about 
the prospect that DEHAP could also find a voice (albeit a 
tiny one) in the legislature. 
PEARSON