US embassy cable - 02ANKARA8778

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 008778 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2007 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, TU 
SUBJECT: EU AMBIVALENCE, CYPRUS SEEN AS OBSTACLES TO 
TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY 
 
 
REF: ANKARA 8586 
 
 
Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch; reasons 1.5 b and d. 
 
 
1. (C) Poloff discussed the state of Turkey's EU candidacy 
with several Ankara-based European diplomats following a 
November 26 meeting with Ambassador in which an unusually 
downbeat PM Gul appeared to believe Turkey had recently lost 
ground in its EU membership bid. 
 
 
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EU Ambivalence 
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2. (C) A Danish diplomat suggested that GOT officials may be 
learning the extent of EU ambivalence about Turkey's 
candidacy for the first time as a result of ruling AK Party 
leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan's tour of EU capitals.  He said 
the highly positive press coverage of the tour was 
misleading; leaders in countries such as Finland and Portugal 
had made supportive public comments, but in private had told 
Erdogan only that they favored setting a date for considering 
when accession talks for Turkey might begin (a "date for a 
date") rather than setting a concrete date at the December 
12-13 EU Summit.  Before Erdogan's visit, many EU members had 
avoided spelling out their position on Turkey's candidacy, 
and GOT officials may have assumed they had more support. 
 
 
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Cyprus 
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3. (C) UK, German, Swedish, Dutch, and Greek diplomats said 
they did not/not believe Turkey had recently lost support in 
their capitals.  Some suggested GOT frustration could be 
Cyprus related.  Shortly after the November 3 election 
Erdogan accepted the tacit linkage between progress on Cyprus 
and EU membership, and made several optimistic statements on 
Cyprus.  More recently, Erdogan has tried to separate the two 
issues and downplay hopes for a quick Cyprus agreement.  The 
diplomats speculated that leaders of the new GOT now realize 
how difficult it will be to achieve a pre-Summit breakthrough 
on Cyprus, and, as a result, may have lowered expectations 
for the EU Summit. 
 
 
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Reform Package May Come Too Late 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
4. (C) The diplomats agreed the GOT's new legislative reform 
package (reftel), not yet introduced in Parliament, appeared 
to include significant human rights measures.  However, they 
said, the package may come too late to affect EU thinking on 
Turkey.  DPM Yalcinbayir has said the new legislation will 
not be passed before the Summit.  In any case, the diplomats 
said, EU capitals need time to grasp the significance of 
legal reform in Turkey.  The diplomats recalled that it took 
most EU member states a couple of months to acknowledge the 
GOT's August reform package and adjust their views on 
Turkey's candidacy. 
 
 
PEARSON