US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1839

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001839 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/RUS, SA, INR, EB 
NSC FOR MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, MARR, EU, RS, UZ, TI 
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN NOT OVERLY PLEASED BY NEW RUSSIA-UZBEKISTAN 
ALLIANCE 
 
REF: HILLMEYER E-MAIL DTD 11-18-05 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy 
Dushanbe. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In a meeting with the Ambassador, Foreign 
Minister Nazarov did not hide his unease about the November 14 
Russia-Uzbekistan Alliance.  Tajikistan is concerned that 
Tashkent will use it's "new best friend" status with Moscow to 
harm Dushanbe's interests.  He judged it would be unthinkable 
for Russia to establish a military base in Uzbekistan in the 
near term.  He also criticized the European Union sanctions for 
not including "big fish" like President Karimov himself.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) On November 21, Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov told the 
Ambassador that only two points in the November 14 
Russia-Uzbekistan agreement are serious:  mutual assistance in 
the event of an invasion, and major military-technical 
assistance to the Uzbek military.  Nazarov asked sardonically, 
"So who's threatening Uzbekistan?  Kyrgyzstan?  I don't think 
they are planning to invade.  Tajikistan?  We're not planning to 
declare war.  Afghanistan?  Not likely.  And how is Russia going 
to help reform Uzbekistan's military when it can't even reform 
its own?" 
 
3.  (C) Nazarov judged the real problem for Tajikistan is such 
close relations between Tashkent and Moscow will negatively 
influence other issues.  "We're especially concerned that 
Karimov met [RusAl Chairman Oleg] Deripaska in Moscow.  We're 
worried about his aims.  We have information that Karimov will 
do everything possible to convince Deripaska to abandon his 
plans to invest in aluminum in Tajikistan and to finish Rogun 
dam and hydroelectric station." 
 
4.  (C) Nazarov was less than pleased with the briefing memo the 
Russian Embassy in Dushanbe had provided the Tajik Government 
about the Russia-Uzbekistan agreement.  'There wasn't anything 
more than what we'd already seen in the press."  He added 
sarcastically, "The important stuff must all be secret." 
 
5.  (C) In response to a question how Tajikistan would react to 
a new Russian military base in Uzbekistan, Nazarov said in the 
short term such a development would be "unthinkable," because it 
would be especially bad "diplomatic ethics" for the Russians to 
move in as soon as the Americans depart from Karshi-Khanabad. 
 
6.  (C) Uzbekistan may eventually join the Collective Security 
Treaty Organization (CSTO), according to Nazarov, but it cannot 
be permitted to emerge as "Moscow's enforcer in Central Asia - 
CSTO works by consensus." 
 
EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 
 
7.  (C) Referring to the recent decision to fold the Central 
Asia Cooperation Organization into the Eurasian Economic 
Community (EEC), Nazarov also expressed caution.  He judged if 
Uzbekistan is willing to accept and abide by all previous EEC 
agreements, especially open borders, then the new arrangement is 
positive.  "You can imagine that we would welcome Uzbekistan 
opening its border with us and facilitating trade, but~," he 
trailed off. 
 
EUROPEAN UNION SANCTIONS NOT SERIOUS 
 
8.  (C) Nazarov volunteered that the European Union's list of 12 
 
 
Uzbek officials sanctioned as a result of Andijon is not very 
serious "because it should have included the 'big fish' like 
Karimov and Foreign Minister Ganiyev." 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  Although philosophical and phlegmatic as 
always, Nazarov did not hide his concerns about the new 
Russia-Uzbekistan Alliance because he fears Karimov will try to 
use it to harm Tajikistan's interests.  His comments about 
Karimov courting Deripaska were especially telling, because 
Rahmonov and his government are putting a whole lot of their 
economic eggs in Deripaska's basket.  We also were intrigued 
that he criticized the Russian Embassy for not being more 
forthcoming than the press reports.  The bottom line is that 
Tajikistan's Foreign Ministry is not especially pleased with 
this new development.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
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