US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6580

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006580 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, PTER, IS, ELECTIONS 2006, GOI INTERNAL, COUNTERTERRORISM, GOI EXTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: LIVNI PONDERS LIKUD INTERNAL POLITICS AND HAMAS' 
PARTICIPATION IN PLC VOTE 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 6357 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Gene A. Cretz for Reasons 1.4 (b 
) and (d) 
 
1,  (C) Summary:  Minister of Justice Tzipi Livni told Deputy 
Assistance Secretary Robert Danin on November 18 that Prime 
Minister Sharon was playing his cards very close to his vest 
and that nobody knew if he planned to establish a new 
centrist party.  She acknowledged that Likud's core ideology 
was no longer clear, and asserted that the common denominator 
among members of the Likud leadership now is moderation, 
though openly promoting moderate positions is politically 
risky.  She suggested that if Sharon established a new party, 
newly elected Labor Party Chairman Peretz would find it 
easier to form a coalition with it.  Livni, however, 
questioned whether there would be sufficient time for a new 
party to prepare for elections and whether it could survive 
in the long-term.  An ideological discussion must take place 
within Likud, whether or not Sharon leaves, she said.  Livni 
asserted that, while Peretz's victory over Shimon Peres has 
made the differences between Likud and Labor more pronounced, 
Israeli voters see integrity and leadership abilities in 
their candidates as more important.  In the upcoming 
elections, she suggested that Likud would try to define 
itself as a better representative of "authentic Jewish 
values."   Livni also expressed considerable concern about 
the upcoming Palestinian Legislative elections and the 
prospects of Hamas and other terrorist organizations 
participation.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------ 
Will Sharon Leave Likud? 
------------------------ 
 
2.  (C) In her November 18 meeting with DAS Danin, Minister 
of Justice Livni volunteered that she does not know for 
certain whether the divisions within the Likud would 
ultimately prompt PM Sharon to leave Likud and establish a 
new centrist party.  (Note:  On November 21 Sharon announced 
he was leaving Likud.  See septel.)  She suggested that the 
Labor Party, under its newly elected Chairman Amir Peretz, 
may be open to establishing a coalition with a new centrist 
party.  The National Religious Party (NRP) and Shinui may 
also be potential coalition partners. 
 
3.  (C) Livni said it was also unclear if a new party would 
have sufficient time to prepare for the next elections, which 
could occur as early as March 2006.  She advised that 
organizing financing could also be another obstacle, as the 
GOI funds parties based on their representation in the 
Knesset.  A new party would have no Knesset members.  Livni, 
however, added that if Likud MKs move to the new party, their 
seats could be counted in favor of a proportionate funding 
allocation to the new party.  She said that if 14-15 seats 
shift to the new party, associated funding could flow to that 
party without anything even being known about its platform. 
 
4.  (C) In response to DAS Danin's observation that 
newly-formed Israeli centrist parties historically do well in 
their first election but then quickly fade in subsequent 
years, Livni acknowledged that this was a legitimate concern 
for Likud members contemplating a break, particularly those 
hoping for a longer-term political future.  Sharon could lead 
them to victory, but who leads the party later "is not 
Sharon's concern."  The question for others is "what happens 
the day after?"  In Israeli politics, the integrity and 
leadership abilities of the candidate attract more votes than 
any given political platform, said Livni, somewhat hopefully. 
 She did not suggest who might best fill Sharon's shoes in 
the future. 
 
-------------------------- 
What Does Likud Stand For? 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Livni advised that, whether Sharon leaves Likud or 
not, there will be an ideological debate within the party. 
In response to Danin's question on what Likud stands for, 
Livni shrugged and said she had recently asked Likud members 
of the Knesset the same question but the replies fell short. 
She suggested that an assertion that Peretz is on the extreme 
left and Likud is not, says little about the party.  She 
joked that in the past any Likud platform position had to 
start with the word "no," such as "no establishment of a 
Palestinian State."  However, "this is not a vision," 
according to Livni. 
 
6.  (C) Livni asserted that the party membership had to 
decide if it could accept a leader who would "take them to a 
different place."  She explained that, although some refuse 
to accept change, moderation is the common denominator within 
Likud.  For example, most members accept that the land must 
be divided to secure peace with the Palestinians and security 
for Israel.  However, in the current environment, many 
moderates refrain from participating in debates "for 
political reasons," choosing to remain silent. 
 
7.  (C) Livni suggested that a huge difference between Likud 
and Labor on core issues need not exist because voters will 
elect the candidate they feel provides the best future 
leadership in proceeding along the right path.  With Peretz's 
victory, the distinctions between Likud and Labor are better 
defined but, at the end of the day, little attention is paid 
to the differences in positions.  Livni said that over time 
Labor went from a socialist party to one, under Barak, 
promoting free market initiatives.  She added, however, that 
Peretz may take Labor back to a more socialist orientation. 
 
9.  (C) A possible outcome of a Likud internal debate, 
according to Livni, will probably include presenting the 
party as the one that best represents the interests of Israel 
as a "Jewish and democratic state."  Internal values and 
integrity should be given the same attention as foreign 
affairs, she said. 
 
----- 
Hamas 
----- 
 
10.  (C) Livni raised the issue of the upcoming Palestinian 
Legislative Elections and Hamas, participation.  She said 
that she and other Israelis could not understand America,s 
position, which she suggested indicated that it was alright 
for armed terrorist groups to run as legitimate political 
parties.  Danin explained the difficulty of this issue from a 
policy perspective, explaining that we consider Hamas to be a 
terrorist organization, but that we believed that the 
Palestinians must produce a solution within their political 
context.  Livni suggested that it would be much easier for 
the Palestinians to take strong positions on Hamas if the 
international community were to stake out a strong position 
now, rather than wait until after the elections.  Livni said 
that if anything, President Abbas will be in a weaker 
position to take on Hamas, since they and other groups, such 
as Islamic Jihad, will be validated and legitimated by their 
participation in the elections. 
 
11.  (C) COMMENT:  Livni comes from a long-time Likud famly, 
and was raised on the Revisionist ideology that claimed all 
of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean as 
Israel,s birthright.  While she has been one of the first to 
recognize the need for Likud to abandon this core ideology, 
she is still struggling to define what will replace it. 
Having strongly supported Prime Minister Sharon,s 
disengagement initiative, she likely has no place to go other 
than with him to his new centrist party.  Though she, like 
other Likud stalwarts now in their fifties, recognizes that 
she may be consigning herself to long-term political oblivion 
by doing so if the new party fails to outlast Sharon.  Her 
repeated concerns about the international community,s 
approach to Hamas, participation in PLC elections, is echoed 
by many other officials close to Sharon, who worry that the 
U.S. may be softening its overall position in the global war 
on terror. 
 
 
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