US embassy cable - 05DUBLIN1418

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 001418 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: EAGR, ETRD, EI, WTO 
SUBJECT: IRISH AGRICULTURE MINISTER INFLEXIBLE ON EU DOHA 
OFFER 
 
REF: DUBLIN 1322 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James C. Kenny; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In a November 15 meeting with the 
Ambassador, Agriculture Minister Mary Coughlan reiterated GOI 
inflexibility on the EU agricultural proposal for the Doha 
negotiations.  She remarked that Irish farmers would not 
allow further concessions on agriculture, as they faced an 
uneven playing field in trade with countries like the United 
States and Brazil.  She also observed that CAP reforms and 
industry consolidation were taking a toll on farm 
communities, to the detriment of Ireland's communal 
well-being.  The Ambassador said that he understood the 
Minister's political concerns, but he stressed the importance 
of advancing the Doha Round as an opportunity to lift 
hundreds of millions out of poverty.  Coughlan's arguments 
were consistent with views shared recently with Post by other 
GOI officials, who have pointed up the dangers of offending 
farmers ahead of Ireland's 2007 general elections.  End 
summary. 
 
Mandelson at the Limit 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C) In a November 15 meeting with the Ambassador, Irish 
Agriculture Minister Mary Coughlan reiterated GOI 
inflexibility on the EU agricultural proposal for the Doha 
negotiations leading to the December Hong Kong Ministerial. 
Coughlan noted that Commissioner Mandelson had "pushed the 
boat to the limit" with the EU's latest offer and that he 
might have even exceeded his mandate on market access issues. 
 She also pointed out that she had been among the first 
Member State agriculture ministers to oppose the EU's 
original proposal as excessively generous. 
 
A Loss of "Social Capital" 
-------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Minister Coughlan highlighted the continuing economic 
and social significance of the agricultural sector, which 
currently accounts for nine percent of employment and five 
percent of GNP.  She observed that while the sector's 
contribution to the overall economy had diminished, farm 
communities remained integral to the fabric of Irish society. 
 She elaborated that, unlike in other EU countries, Irish 
farms were comprised primarily of small land holdings that 
were worked by individual families.  Irish farmers recognized 
that, to be competitive, the farm sector would have to 
undergo technological upgrades and consolidation; this 
process, however, would mean a loss of "social capital," the 
term recently used by Prime Minister Ahern to convey communal 
heritage and well-being.  Added to this difficult transition 
was the 2003 CAP reform package, which had been similarly 
hard on farmers.  Minister Coughlan added that the EU sugar 
regime reforms, to be discussed at the November 22-24 EU 
Agricultural Council meetings, would be another blow to the 
sector, particularly for Ireland's 3,600 sugar beet farmers. 
 
A Perception of an Uneven Playing Field 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Coughlan remarked that a lack of "parallelism" in 
agricultural trade accounted for Irish farmers' opposition to 
the EU proposals for the Doha negotiations.  Rising food 
imports from non-EU countries, including, most notably, beef, 
were displacing local products in the Irish market, she 
noted.  At the same time, Irish farmers felt that EU 
regulation on traceability in their production had hamstrung 
their ability to compete with non-EU countries, especially 
those that took a more laissez-faire attitude toward such 
controls.  Coughlan added that while Ireland was a 
long-standing advocate of the developing world, WTO 
negotiators needed to distinguish Sub-Saharan African 
countries from countries like Brazil, which had 
internationally competitive agricultural sectors and 
significant capacity for expanded agricultural production. 
 
5.  (C) Ireland, she continued, also sought "parallelism" 
with the United States.  She explained that Irish farmers 
would never agree to income support cuts beyond the CAP 
reforms in exchange for "mere" U.S. promises to reduce income 
subsidies in the yet-to-be finalized U.S. farm bill.  "Our 
farmers want a level playing field and more definitive 
movement from the United States to that end," she concluded, 
adding that questions on the evolving U.S. farm bill 
diminished the credibility of the U.S. agricultural offer. 
 
The Ambassador's Push for a Successful Doha Round 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
6.  (C) The Ambassador said that he understood the political 
dynamic underlying Coughlan's concerns, but he stressed the 
importance of moving forward with the Doha Round and of 
helping developing nations through trade.  He cited World 
Bank estimates that a successful Doha Round would lift 
several hundred million people out of poverty.  He also 
observed that, in 20-30 years, there would be over 2 billion 
people living in Africa and that the WTO negotiations would 
directly affect the prospects for economic growth and food 
sufficiency on the continent over that time frame  The 
Ambassador added that China had moved 400 million people out 
of poverty since President Nixon's opening to the country in 
the 1970s, a success that was built largely on increased 
opportunities for trade and investment.  This example, he 
said, could find a mirror image in today's developing 
countries with a successful Doha Round. 
 
7.  (C) Comment: The meeting with Minister Coughlan was the 
latest Doha-focused discussion that the Ambassador/Post has 
had with high-ranking GOI officials in recent weeks.  Per 
reftel, these officials have uniformly explained that the GOI 
cannot support further EU concessions on agriculture, lest 
the governing Fianna Fail party "lose" the politically 
influential farm community ahead of Ireland's 2007 general 
elections. 
KENNY