US embassy cable - 05DHAKA5648

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 005648 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, BG 
SUBJECT: DHAKA BRACES FOR MASS OPPOSITION RALLY 
 
REF: DHAKA 3408 
 
Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reason para 1.4 b,d. 
 
1. (C) Summary: Dhaka is bracing for the Awami League's plan 
to hold its biggest rally in Dhaka since the August 21, 2004, 
grenade attack on AL leaders that killed 22 persons and 
wounded 200 hundred.  Sheikh Hasina and her leftist coalition 
partners will demand the implementation of electoral and 
caretaker regime "reforms," early elections, and condemn 
various BDG policies, including BNP's alliance with 
Islamists.  Last week's killing of two provincial judges has 
spurred AL fears of "suicide bombers" in the shadows, and the 
BDG is warning diplomats of likely AL provocations.  As it 
has before, the BDG is deploying extra security in the city, 
arresting some opposition organizers, and detaining and 
otherwise obstructing potential participants from reaching 
the rally venue.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On November 22 at 1500 local, the Awami League (AL) 
and the 14-member coalition of small leftist parties it leads 
will hold a "Grand Rally" at Paltan Maidan, a large outdoor 
arena in downtown Dhaka.  A representative of former 
president B. Chowdhury's (largely invisible) BPD party will 
attend, but General Ershad's Jatiya Party members will not. 
According to event organizers, the goal is to start off a 
"vigorous resistance movement" against government 
"repression" and to force it to agree to opposition demands 
for changes in the way the caretaker government and elections 
are organized. 
 
3. (C) AL president Sheikh Hasina is expected to announce the 
opposition coalition's platform for bringing down the BNP-led 
government and winning the next election.  AL MP Asaduzzaman 
Noor told poloff that rally will also protest corruption, 
poor governance, recent price hikes of essential commodities, 
and the government's "sheltering" of religious extremists. 
"We need to eliminate extremism if we are to survive to even 
have elections," he said. 
 
4. (C) This will be the first mass AL rally in Dhaka since 
the August 17, 2004, grenade attack on AL leaders killed 22 
persons and injured 200.  The BDG is deploying as many as 
20,000 police and Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) personnel in 
Dhaka in order, the BDG says, to ensure security for 
everyone.  AL security chief General (R) Tarique Saddiqui 
told poloff that the BDG has not approached the AL to 
coordinate security, but it does have  plans to erect fences 
to control access to the rally and has (48 hours in advance 
of the event) vetted the venue with bomb sniffing dogs. 
Paltan Maidan, he noted, is not optimal for security.  He 
fears snipers from surrounding high-rises, but "we are taking 
precautions at our end to shield" Sheikh Hasina from "suicide 
bombers."  (Note: The August 17 rally last year was near but 
not at Paltan Maidan.)  MP Noor said he thinks the BDG "will 
try their best" to protect the rally but it is "difficult to 
stop a suicide bomber." 
 
5. (C) RAB and police are expected to check people arriving 
for the rally.  Opposition figures claim RAB's presence will 
deter participants, and attribute recent arrests of AL 
activists in Dhaka and elsewhere as a bid by the BDG to 
undercut the rally.  As it did twice in 2004 prior to mass AL 
rallies, police have set up new checkpoints into Dhaka and 
have arrested under a catch-all security measure (Section 54) 
reportedly several thousand potential participants as they 
arrive at Dhaka transportation hubs.  AL members allege that 
the BDG has pressured bus companies not to rent buses to 
rally organizers, and engineered a transportation strike 
today to restrict mobility.  AL security chief Saddiqui told 
poloff that while the AL hopes for 100,000, the cumulative 
effect of these BDG actions might be to limit the crowd to 
50,000. 
 
6. (C) On November 20, Foreign Policy Advisor Reaz Rahman 
convoked the Australian High Commissioner (and perhaps other 
diplomats) to warn her that the AL is launching a program of 
destabilization and that AL provocations are likely.  He also 
said that the AL might try to "exploit" foreign embassies and 
implied that diplomats should therefore stay away from the 
rally. 
 
7. (SBU) Embassy personnel will avoid downtown areas on 
November 22.  The American Chamber of Commerce has canceled 
its monthly luncheon scheduled for the same day. 
 
8. (C) Comment: The stakes are high for both the opposition 
and the ruling BNP.  For the AL, it is a chance to take the 
offensive and show that it can produce a big crowd and 
generate, finally, some traction for its anti-BDG platform. 
By Bangladeshi, a mass rally of 50,000 would be a 
disappointment.  For the BNP, it needs to show that it can 
prevent a repetition of the August 21 attack and that it can 
provide effective security in the current environment.  There 
has been no explicit JMB threat against the rally, but last 
year's grenade attack and the perception that "suicide 
bombers" now lurk in the shadows have added to the sense of 
unease in Dhaka. 
CHAMMAS