US embassy cable - 05ALGIERS2321

C O N F I D E N T I A L ALGIERS 002321 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, AG 
SUBJECT: UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THE KABYLIE REGION 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MARC J. SIEVERS 
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
CONTEXT FOR KABYLIE ELECTIONS 
----------------------------- 
 
1.  (U) IN APRIL 2001, VIOLENCE ERUPTED IN THE MAINLY BERBER 
KABYLIE REGIONS FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF AN 18-YEAR-OLD BERBER 
MALE TAKEN INTO POLICE CUSTODY.  THE ENSUING CLASHES BETWEEN 
THE LOCAL KABYLIE POPULATION AND ALGERIAN SECURITY FORCES, 
WHICH BECAME KNOWN AS THE BERBER OR BLACK SPRING INCIDENTS, 
LED TO THE DEATH OF 123 CIVILIANS.  THE FOLLOWING YEAR, WHEN 
NATION-WIDE ELECTIONS WERE HELD, THE MAJORITY OF 
PREDOMINANTLY BERBER POLITICAL PARTIES AND GROUPS, INCLUDING 
THE RALLY FOR CULTURE AND DEMOCRACY (RCD) AND THE CITIZEN'S 
MOVEMENT, BOYCOTTED THE ELECTIONS.  SOME ELEMENTS WENT 
FURTHER AND ACTIVELY PREVENTED KABYLIE BERBERS FROM VOTING. 
IN THE YEARS SINCE, THE CITIZEN'S MOVEMENT CONTINUED TO CALL 
FOR THE DISMISSAL OF THE "ILLEGITIMATE REPRESENTATIVES" 
ELECTED TO THE KABYLIE LOCAL GOVERNMENT GIVEN THE LACK OF 
BERBER POLITICAL PARTY REPRESENTATION.  JULY 17 OF THIS YEAR, 
BOUTEFLIKA ISSUED A DECREE BASED ON AN AGREEMENT NEGOTIATED 
BETWEEN THE GOA AND THE BERBER-BASED AROUCHE MOVEMENT THAT 
DISSOLVED THE PROVINCIAL AND MUNICIPAL COUNCILS IN THE 
KABYLIE REGION AND SCHEDULED NEW ELECTIONS FOR NOVEMBER. 
 
POLITICAL PARTY AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) NEARLY EVERY MAJOR ALGERIAN POLITICAL PARTY WILL 
PARTICIPATE IN THE KABYLIE ELECTIONS.  IN ADDITION TO THE FFS 
AND THE RCD, THE NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT (FLN), THE 
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL RALLY (RND), THE WORKER'S PARTY (PT) AND 
SOCIETY OF PEACE MOVEMENT (MSP) WILL ALL FIELD SUBSTANTIAL 
NUMBERS OF CANDIDATES.  THE FLN LEADS THE FIELD WITH 120 
CANDIDATES, FOLLOWED BY FFS WITH 118, RCD WITH 87, RND WITH 
86, PT WITH 26, AND MSP WITH 17. THERE ALSO ARE MORE THAN 100 
DECLARED INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES.  DESPITE LOW VOTER TURNOUT 
IN KABYLIE FOR THE SEPTEMBER 29 REFERENDUM ON THE CHARTER FOR 
PEACE AND NATIONAL RECONCILIATION, EMBASSY CONTACTS EXPECT A 
HIGH RATE OF PARTICIPATION THIS TIME AROUND.  OUR SOURCES 
TOLD US THAT MUCH OF THE BERBER POPULATION IS FRUSTRATED BY 
THE LACK OF ECONOMIC PROSPERITY UNDER THE CURRENT KABYLIE 
PROVINCIAL MUNICIPAL COUNCILS AND WILL BE ACTIVELY INTERESTED 
IN CHANGING THEIR LOCAL SITUATION. 
 
ELECTION PREDICTIONS 
-------------------- 
 
3.  (C) KNOWLEDGEABLE POLITICAL SOURCES PREDICT THAT THE 
BERBER-BASED PARTIES, FFS AND RCD, WILL DO WELL BECAUSE OF 
THEIR CONNECTIONS TO THE LOCAL COMMUNITY AND THEIR 
UNDER-REPRESENTATION IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT SINCE THE 2002 
ELECTIONS.  EMBASSY CONTACTS ALSO ESTIMATE THAT THE FLN WILL 
MAKE POTENTIAL POLITICAL GAINS.  ACCORDING TO ONE CONTACT, 
FLN CANDIDATES IN THE EYES OF VOTERS APPEAR BETTER CONNECTED 
TO THE CAPITAL AND BETTER ABLE TO COMMUNICATE THE NEEDS OF 
THE WILAYA TO THE FLN-DOMINATED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT.  AT THE 
MUNICIPAL LEVEL, ACCORDING TO OUR SOURCES, THE RETURN TO 
ELECTED REPRESENTATION IN THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT WILL BE 
IMPORTANT TO THIS REGION'S POLITICAL REINTEGRATION INTO THE 
ALGERIAN LANDSCAPE.  AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, OUR SOURCES 
MAINTAIN THERE IS LITTLE INTEREST IN THESE ELECTIONS EXCEPT 
FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT THEY WILL BE DEMOCRATIC AND FREE OF 
THE PROBLEMS THAT MARRED THE 2002 ELECTIONS. 
 
SIEVERS