US embassy cable - 05DUSHANBE1828

C O N F I D E N T I A L  DUSHANBE 001828 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/RUS, EUR/PPD, DRL, S/P 
NSC FOR MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, KPAO, RS, TI 
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN:  SERIOUS POLITICIAN ZOYIROV CHARGES RAHMONOV 
"ILLEGITIMATE" AND TWO NEW PARTIES "ARTIFICIAL" 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy 
Dushanbe. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan Chairman 
Zoyirov continues to be a voice in the Tajik political 
wilderness logically and intelligently demanding that the 
Government of Tajikistan conform to the laws in its constitution 
- at least in part because he was one of the key drafters of the 
constitution which he based in large part on the U.S. model.  He 
asked that the West speak out more forcefully for democracy in 
Tajikistan.  Although he seems to be clean and honestly 
democratic, his constituency is miniscule (less than 2 percent 
of the electorate) and is limited mainly to the upper levels of 
the urban intelligentsia.  Nevertheless, Zoyirov is worth 
listening to and cultivating.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) Social-Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) Chairman 
Rahmatullo Zoyirov called on the Ambassador November 17, 
accompanied by independent journalist Marat Mamadshoyev. 
Zoyirov asked the Ambassador to make a public statement to 
support Zoyirov's recent press release declaring President 
Rahmonov illegitimate by constitutional standards.  (NOTE: 
Zoyirov was one of the original drafters of Tajikistan's 
constitution and served as the President's legal adviser until 
he resigned to protest the June 2003 referendum that gave 
Rahmonov the possibility of two more seven-year terms that could 
keep him in office until 2020.  END NOTE.) 
 
3.  (C) The Ambassador explained that a diplomat cannot be 
partisan in internal political affairs, but affirmed he would 
continue to emphasize in public the importance of democratic 
process.  Zoyirov well understood this, and simply deployed his 
request as an opening gambit for a more serious discussion of 
democracy, or lack thereof, in Tajikistan. 
 
CONTINUE TO SPEAK OUT FOR DEMOCRACY 
 
4.  (C) Zoyirov charged that the U.S. Embassy has gone silent on 
democracy issues since mid-2004.  The Ambassador refuted this 
and said we would send Zoyirov every press statement and 
transcript on democracy since June 2004. 
 
5.  (C) The Ambassador acknowledged that the Tajik Government 
has indeed gone backward on democracy and that the U.S. Embassy 
has well documented it for Washington.  He explained in detail 
that, since mid-2004, the Tajik Government has faced steadily 
increasing pressure from Moscow, as a result of the "color 
revolutions," to limit the influence and even presence of the 
United States and the European Union in Tajikistan.  Related to 
this, the government has step by step cracked down on anything 
and anyone construed to be an agent of influence for change, 
including independent political parties and opposition mass 
media and even the international Rotary Club.  Zoyirov fully 
concurred. 
 
PRESIDENTIAL DECISIONS MADE BY EMOTION 
 
6.  (C) The Ambassador noted that his explanation of pressure 
from Moscow is not meant to exonerate Rahmonov, who is 
responsible for his own actions.  Zoyirov explained, from his 
own experience in the Presidential Apparat, that Rahmonov, 
somewhat like Uzbekistan's Karimov, is emotional rather than 
analytical and intellectual.  When he was in the Apparat, 
Zoyirov said that he and his staff would spend six weeks 
carefully drafting to meet international standards and then 
 
 
broadly clearing presidential decrees to improve governance. 
But Rahmonov as likely as not, to the staff's great astonishment 
and chagrin, rejected them just before he was to sign them, 
based on whichever special interest had most recently had his 
ear. 
 
TWO NEW PARTIES "ARTIFICIAL" 
 
7.  (C) The Ambassador asked whether Zoyirov thought that the 
two newly registered political parties - the Agrarian Party of 
Tajikistan (APT) and the Party of Economic Reforms (PER) are 
legitimate and independent or government-created pocket parties. 
 He noted the notoriously legalistic Ministry of Justice had 
registered them on their first tries.  Zoyirov responded that of 
course the parties are illegitimate government tools, if for no 
other reason than their chairmen are academic rectors who are 
government-approved civil servants.  (NOTE:  Zoyirov released a 
press statement on November 18 describing the APT and PER as 
"artificial."  END NOTE.)  He explained these parties will be 
allowed to give "soft criticism" of the government to give the 
illusion of open political debate for Western consumption. 
 
OBAIDULLOYEV PANTING BUT TOLD TO BACK OFF 
 
8.  (C) The Ambassador asked if Chairman of Parliament and Mayor 
of Dushanbe Mahmadsaid Obaidulloyev will emerge as a serious 
presidential contender for the late 2006 presidential election. 
(NOTE:  Obaidulloyev - his mafia nickname is "Bini," "the nose" 
- has long been fuming because he thought he had a gentleman's 
agreement with Rahmonov that 2006 would be his "turn" to be 
president before the 2003 referendum overturned his 
expectations.  END NOTE.)  Zoyirov said that Tajiks, especially 
Kulyobis, would probably view Obaidulloyev as a legitimate 
contender, and that he indeed has a powerful desire to be 
president, if only to better pay off his own cronies.  However, 
Moscow has made clear to both Rahmonov and Obaidulloyev they are 
"on the same team" - i.e., pro-Moscow - and cannot be allowed to 
tear each other down. 
 
DEMOCRACY SMALL GRANT STYMIED 
 
9.  (C) Journalist Mahmadshoyev asked if his U.S. Embassy 
Democracy Small Grant to create an independent newspaper, 
"Imruz" ("Today"), could be extended beyond its November 30 
expiration.  He has been unable to register "Imruz" with the 
Ministry of Justice, he's been explicitly told, because "Imruz" 
has U.S. funding.  (COMMENT:  The original grant was for a 
"consortium of journalists to create an independent newspaper." 
In fact, Mahmadshoyev has now allied himself with Zoyirov's 
SDPT, and "Imruz" would likely become a party voice.  END 
COMMENT.)  The Ambassador agreed to extend the grant, and 
suggested Mahmadshoyev explore an independent web site for his 
project, or other creative means, not yet subject to the 
knuckle-draggers, of working around the Ministry of Justice 
legalisms. 
 
10.  (C) COMMENT:  Tajikistan is one year away from presidential 
elections, which it is universally assumed President Rahmonov 
will win.  Even without the daily "guidance" from Moscow, he 
likely would maneuver to ensure that he has no legitimate 
competition.  We are impressed that Zoyirov appears to be the 
only politician in Tajikistan willing to take public stances 
against Rahmonov and his regime.  He may calculate, because he 
was not corrupt during his government service, unlike the 
imprisoned Democratic Party of Tajikistan Chairman Mahmadruzi 
Iskandarov, that he can risk confronting the regime because the 
West would come to his defense.  That said, even though he seems 
to be clean and honestly democratic, his constituency is 
 
 
miniscule, likely no more than two percent of the electorate, 
and is limited mainly to the upper levels of the urban 
intelligentsia who have had some degree of exposure to the West. 
 Would he be a good president for Tajikistan?  Probably yes. 
But he does not have a glimmer of hope of winning a free 
election in the current stage of Tajikistan's political 
development.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND 
 
 
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