US embassy cable - 05ALMATY4123

UNCLAS ALMATY 004123 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE); EUR/ACE (JMCKANE), 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KZ, 2005 Election 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OTAN PARTY 
ACTING CHAIRMAN 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Ambassador Ordway met with Acting "Otan" 
Party chairman Bakhytzhan Zhumagulov in Almaty on November 
15.  Zhumagulov, who is also chairman of Nazarbayev's re- 
election campaign, had requested the meeting.  He told the 
Ambassador that Nazarbayev's rating is close to 70%, and the 
election results will bear that out.  Zhumagulov criticized 
the interim OSCE report on the election campaign, saying 
that it gave the government no credit for its efforts to 
ensure the fairness of the campaign and poll.  Zhumagulov 
characterized the overall political situation as stable, but 
identified Almaty, Astana and several other large cities as 
highly politicized.  He outlined a campaign approach that 
involves little or no personal involvement by President 
Nazarbayev.  End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) Zhumagulov told the Ambassador that party-sponsored 
opinion polls revealed President Nazarbayev would receive in 
the neighborhood of 70 percent of the vote. (Note: an 
independent poll organized by the International Republican 
Institute gave the President a substantially higher rating. 
End Note.)  Zhumagulov said that in its polling, the party 
often has to filter exaggerated results that show the 
President with better than 90% approval. 
 
3. (SBU) Zhumagulov roundly criticized the OSCE's interim 
report on the election process.  He claimed to have 
forwarded 120 reports of "violations" in the regions to the 
OSCE, none of which were mentioned in the report.  He 
suggested that the OSCE was guilty of a double standard 
toward the authorities, because the report did not address 
alleged incidents where the opposition refused to allow 
certain people into their events.  The CEC, he said, also 
got no credit for ruling that candidates would be guaranteed 
equal access to the media. 
 
4. (SBU) Zhumagulov dismissed criticisms that oppositionists 
are unfairly denied access to venues for holding rallies. 
He said that even he had been told by local authorities in 
some cases that large, centrally located venues he wanted 
for a campaign event was not available, including in 
Shymkent, Almaty and Kyzyl-Orda. 
 
5. (SBU) Zhumagulov also described the organization of the 
President's campaign.  The Otan party and its pro- 
presidential coalition partners are committed to doing all 
they can to support Nazarbayev, although the President is 
not participating directly in the campaign.  He gave a 
figure of roughly 28,000 activists in the field supporting 
Nazarbayev.  With these numbers the pro-presidential 
campaign is able to reach even the most remote locations. 
The opposition's significant manpower deficit prevents them 
from reaching rural areas.  Zhumagulov said the campaign has 
a different approach in the villages: instead of holding 
rallies, the campaign will find a respected, older member of 
the community to go door-to-door making the pitch for the 
President.  In urban areas, the most effective approach is 
leaflets in mailboxes.  Personal approaches, either door-to- 
door or by telephone, are counterproductive. 
 
6. (SBU) Zhumagulov commented briefly on the President's 
decision not to participate in the November 17 televised 
debate with the other candidates.  Nazarbayev made an 
official visit to Kiev that day, but in any event would not 
have participated.  The party leadership did not see any 
reason for Nazarbayev, who enjoys universal name recognition 
and 70 percent approval, to appear in a forum with 
candidates "whose ratings are about a fraction of a 
percent." 
 
7. (SBU) Finally, while Zhumagulov characterized the overall 
political situation as stable, he did identify Almaty, 
Astana, Pavlodar, Semipalatinsk, Shymkent and Ust- 
Kamenogorsk as the most politically active.  He also 
indicated that the party was concerned about voter turnout, 
although he expected a minimum of 60% participation.  His 
concern was most likely limited to the damage low turnout 
might do to public perception of the election's legitimacy, 
as Kazakhstan does not have a minimum turnout threshold for 
the election to be certified. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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