US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4632

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004632 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2020 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER:  TAINAN COUNTY 
 
REF: TAIPEI 4158 
 
Classified By: AIT DIRECTOR DOUGLAS PAAL, REASON(S): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S HOME COUNTY IS 
VIEWED BY BOTH THE KMT AND THE DPP IN THE SOUTH AS AN "INDEX" 
ELECTION.  IF DPP CANDIDATES CANNOT WIN EASILY WHERE THE 
DEEPEST GREENS FLOURISH, SOME BELIEVE THE ADMINISTRATION HAS 
NO HOPE OF WINNING THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  RECENT 
PUBLIC OPINION POLLS, GROWING DPP CONCERNS ABOUT ITS OWN 
CANDIDATE FOR MAGISTRATE, AND CONTINUING DPP SCANDALS 
INDICATE TAINAN COUNTY IS NOT THE SLAM-DUNK DPP LEADERS 
INITIALLY BELIEVED.  LOW VOTER TURNOUT AMONG BOTH DISAFFECTED 
DPP SUPPORTERS AND THE LARGE BODY OF UNDECIDED VOTERS FURTHER 
ENDANGERS DPP PROSPECTS.  THE BEST HOPE FOR THE KMT IN THIS 
DEEP GREEN HAVEN IS SIMPLY TO LIE LOW -- A STRATEGY 
WELL-FITTED TO ITS OWN LACKLUSTER CANDIDATE -- AND LET THE 
DPP'S SCANDALS AND OTHER PROBLEMS WORK TO ITS ADVANTAGE.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) IN A MEETING ON NOVEMBER 2, DPP COUNTY CHAIRMAN KUO 
KUO-WEN READILY ACKNOWLEDGED TO AIT/K THAT THE DPP HAS BEEN 
HURT BY THE ONGOING REVELATIONS OF CORRUPTION EMERGING FROM 
THE KAOHSIUNG RAPID TRANSIT CORPORATION (KRTC) SCANDAL. 
ALTHOUGH INTERNAL DPP POLLS IN LATE OCTOBER PREDICTED A 
COMFORTABLE WIN FOR DPP CANDIDATE, INCUMBENT MAGISTRATE SU 
HUAN-CHIH, AN EARLY NOVEMBER POLL REVEALED A SERIOUS DECLINE 
IN SUPPORT.  DPP COUNTY CHAIRMAN KUO TOLD AIT/K THAT THE 
DISAFFECTION IS MOSTLY AMONG THE LARGE BODY OF CENTRIST 
VOTERS, WHO, HE BELIEVES, WILL NOT SHIFT THEIR SUPPORT TO THE 
KMT, BUT RATHER WILL SIMPLY NOT VOTE.  A LOW VOTER TURNOUT, 
KUO CONTINUED, DEFINING HIGH TURNOUT AS 70 PERCENT AND LOW 
TURNOUT AS 40 PERCENT, COULD HAND THE ELECTION TO THE KMT. 
 
3.  (C) CHAIRMAN KUO TOLD AIT/K THAT, WHILE PRESIDENT CHEN'S 
PRESENCE MAY BE LESS WELCOME ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE HELPFUL TO 
DPP CANDIDATES IN TAINAN COUNTY SIMPLY BECAUSE THIS IS CHEN'S 
HOME TURF.  PEOPLE IN TAINAN COUNTY DO NOT BELIEVE THE 
PRESIDENT WAS INVOLVED DIRECTLY IN THE KRTC SCANDAL, KUO 
CONTINUED, BUT RATHER BLAME FORMER PRESIDENTIAL POLICY 
ADVISOR CHEN CHE-NAN FOR DECEIVING THE PRESIDENT AND BRINGING 
DISGRACE ON THE PARTY.  PRESIDENT CHEN, KUO EXPLAINED, IS THE 
ONLY DPP LEADER WHO CAN AROUSE VOTERS AND BOOST SUPPORT FOR 
MAGISTRATE SU'S RE-ELECTION IN TAINAN COUNTY.  MAGISTRATE SU, 
ON THE OTHER HAND, IS AN UNINSPIRING CAMPAIGNER BECAUSE HE 
TENDS TO DWELL ON LARGER POLICY MATTERS THAT BORE MOST 
VOTERS.  SU, KUO LAMENTED, IS RUNNING AS A "DPP MAGISTRATE" 
(I.E., TALKING ABOUT POLICIES, PROPOSED PROGRAMS AND 
ACCOMPLISHMENTS), RATHER THAN AS A "CANDIDATE" (I.E., 
PROJECTNG AN ATTRACTIVE PERSONA, HOBNOBBING WITH THE VOTERS, 
PRESENTING HIMSELF AS A GOOD FAMILY MAN, AND EXPRESSING HIGH 
MORAL STANDARDS).  MAGISTRATE SU'S POOR CAMPAIGN PERFORMANCE 
IS DAMAGING HIS CAMPAIGN AND ALIENATING DPP OFFICIALS AND 
EVEN HIS OWN CAMPAIGN WORKERS, COMPLAINED KUO. 
 
4.  (C) DPP OFFICIALS, ANXIOUS ABOUT THEIR CANDIDATE'S 
INABILITY TO PROJECT AN IMAGE AS A MAN OF THE PEOPLE, SAY 
THEY ARE FINDING THE 3-IN-1 ELECTION PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT 
BECAUSE PERSONAL CONNECTIONS AND GRASSROOTS SUPPORT ARE THE 
KEYS TO WINNING THE MAGISTERIAL SEAT.  DPP OFFICIALS SAY 
THEIR CANDIDATE'S UNWILLINGNESS OR INABILITY TO JUMP INTO THE 
"PERSONAL POLITICS" ASPECT OF THE CAMPAIGN IS FORCING THEM TO 
RUN A PARTY-TO-PARTY RACE, AND THE RECENT DPP SCANDALS CAN 
ONLY DRAG THEM DOWN IN THAT KIND OF CONTEST.  IN ADDITION, 
DPP HEADQUARTERS, ASSUMING IT CAN WIN HANDILY IN THE 
PRESIDENT'S BACKYARD, ISN'T OFFERING EITHER FINANCIAL OR 
HUMAN RESOURCES TO PARTY OFFICIALS IN TAINAN COUNTY, 
ACCORDING TO KUO. 
 
5.  (C) WHILE DPP OFFICIALS DO NOT BELIEVE THE TOUTED "MA 
YING-JEOU EFFECT" WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT IN TAINAN 
COUNTY, THEY ARE AWARE THAT KMT CANDIDATE KUO TIEN-TSAI'S 
GREATEST STRENGTH MAY BE, IRONICALLY, THAT HE IS COLORLESS 
AND HAS NO DEFINABLE IMAGE AT ALL.  HE HASN'T BEEN IN 
POLITICS LONG ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE ANY NEGATIVES, NOTED DPP 
CHAIRMAN KUO, WHICH MAKES HIM A VERY TOUGH COMPETITOR, 
ESPECIALLY WHEN RIDING CHAIRMAN MA'S CLEAN COATTAILS 
(CONTRADICTING HIS DISMISSAL OF CHAIRMAN MA).  KUO TOLD AIT/K 
THAT THE "CONTINUOUS HARPING" BY THE TAIWAN MEDIA ON DPP 
CORRUPTION HAS RAISED THE "MORAL STANDARD" FOR CANDIDATES IN 
THIS PARTICULAR ELECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE CORRUPTION ISSUES, 
SAID CHAIRMAN KUO, WILL TAKE A BIGGER BITE OUT OF DPP VOTES 
IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH, THE DPP STANDS TO TAKE A 
SUBSTANTIAL HIT IN TAINAN COUNTY AS WELL, UNLESS INCUMBENT 
MAGISTRATE SU CAN SOMEHOW PREVENT THE TAINAN MAGISTRATE RACE 
FROM BECOMING A HEAD-ON PARTY-TO-PARTY FIGHT. 
 
6.  (C)  KMT COUNTY CHAIRMAN SU MING-KUO ACKNOWLEDGED TO 
AIT/K THAT TAINAN COUNTY IS A DPP STRONGHOLD, PRIMARILY 
BECAUSE PRESIDENT CHEN IS A NATIVE SON.  NEVERTHELESS, 
CHAIRMAN SU CONTINUED, THE KMT WAS SURPRISED BY THE LOW 
TURNOUT OF AROUND 500 PEOPLE DURING THE PRESIDENT'S LAST 
VISIT TO TAINAN COUNTY TO OPEN MAGISTRATE SU'S CAMPAIGN 
OFFICE.  THE KMT ESTIMATES FULLY 50 PERCENT OF TAINAN VOTERS 
ARE STILL UNDECIDED AND IS HOPING TO PICK UP SOME OF THOSE 
VOTES, ALTHOUGH SU DOUBTS TRADITIONAL DPP SUPPORTERS WILL 
ACTUALLY VOTE FOR THE KMT.  LIKE DPP CHAIRMAN KUO, KMT 
CHAIRMAN SU BELIEVES THESE VOTERS WILL SIMPLY STAY AWAY FROM 
THE POLLS ALTOGETHER.  THIS WOULD STILL WORK TO THE KMT'S 
ADVANTAGE, ARGUED SU, BECAUSE MOST OF THOSE UNDECIDED VOTERS 
WOULD, IN TAINAN, TEND TO GO FOR THE DPP CANDIDATE.  IN 
ADDITION, CHAIRMAN SU BELIEVES VISITS BY KMT CHAIRMAN MA 
YING-JEOU WILL BOOST KMT CHANCES IN TAINAN COUNTY BECAUSE MA 
IS SO POPULAR AMONG WOMEN AND YOUNG VOTERS UNDER 35. 
 
7.  KMT OFFICIALS TOLD AIT/K THAT DPP MAGISTRATE SU HAS THREE 
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS THAT ARE TURNING WHAT WAS ONCE A 
FOREGONE DPP VICTORY INTO A NECK-TO-NECK RACE.  FIRST, THE 
ONGOING DPP CORRUPTION SCANDAL IS DEPRESSING AND ALIENATING 
TRADITIONAL DPP SUPPORTERS.  SECOND, HAVING FAILED TO FULFILL 
SEVERAL PREVIOUS CAMPAIGN PLEDGES (ECONOMIC AND 
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT), MAGISTRATE SU'S APPROVAL RATING 
IS AMONG THE LOWEST OF THE INCUMBENT MAGISTERIAL CANDIDATES 
ISLAND-WIDE.  THIRD, INTERNAL KMT POLLS SHOW 70 PER CENT OF 
GOVERNMENT WORKERS WILL NOT VOTE FOR INCUMBENT MAGISTRATE SU 
BECAUSE HE HAS PROVED HIMSELF TO BE A POOR MANAGER.  IN 
ADDITION, THERE IS GROWING DISAFFECTION WITH THE DPP ITSELF 
BEYOND THE CORRUPTION ISSUES, NOTES KMT CHAIRMAN SU, BECAUSE 
THE ECONOMY HAS TAKEN A NOSE-DIVE SINCE THE DPP TOOK OVER THE 
GOVERNMENT IN 2000.  THE GAP BETWEEN THE RICH AND POOR HAS 
GROWN AS A RESULT OF THE DPP'S SUPPOSED "FINANCIAL REFORM" 
POLICY, EXPLAINED SU, WHICH REFLECTS "COLLUSION BETWEEN 
GOVERNMENT AND BIG BUSINESS."  AS SUCH, KMT OFFICIALS ARE 
MORE THAN HAPPY THAT DPP CANDIDATE SU IS TRYING TO DEFINE 
THIS AS A PARTY-TO-PARTY RACE. 
 
8.  (C) IN CONTRAST TO LOCAL DPP OFFICIALS' SUPPORT FOR THEIR 
NATIVE SON, KMT OFFICIALS BELIEVE PRESIDENT CHEN IS 
INTIMATELY INVOLVED IN THE KRTC CORRUPTION SCANDAL. 
PRESIDENT CHEN AND FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR CHEN CHE-NAN 
HAVE BEEN CLOSE ASSOCIATES SINCE THEY WERE TOGETHER IN TAINAN 
COUNTY, KMT CHAIRMAN SU TOLD AID/K, AND KMT SUPPORTERS HAVE 
ALWAYS VIEWED CHEN CHE-NAN AS PRESIDENT CHEN'S "WHITE GLOVES 
MAN" (I.E., INTERMEDIARY WHO HANDLES DIRTY MONEY).  THUS, THE 
KMT, SU EXPLAINED, INTENDS TO MAKE THE CORRUPTION ISSUE A 
CENTERPIECE OF ITS CAMPAIGN FOR TAINAN COUNTY MAGISTRATE. 
 
9.  (U) CONFLICTING PUBLIC OPINION POLLS INDICATE HOW CLOSE 
THE RACE HAS BECOME.  TWO POLLS LAST WEEK BY APPLE DAILY AND 
UNITED DAILY NEWS SHOWED DPP LEADING BY, RESPECTIVELY, 4 
PERCENT AND 7 PERCENT.  THE UNITED DAILY POLLS FURTHER 
INDICATED THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE KRTC SCANDAL, THE DPP 
CANDIDATE'S POPULARITY DROPPED FROM 34 PERCENT TO 29 PERCENT, 
WHEREAS THE KMT CANDIDATE'S POPULARITY INCREASED FROM 20 TO 
22 PERCENT. 
 
10.  (U) IN RESPONSE TO THE POLLING RESULTS, KMT TAINAN 
COUNTY CHAIRMAN SU MING-KUO TOLD THE PRESS THAT THE TAINAN 
MAGISTRATE ELECTION IS BECOMING A NECK-TO-NECK RACE BECAUSE 
OF FALLOUT FROM THE KRTC SCANDAL.  HE NOTED THAT MANY DPP 
SUPPORTERS ARE DISAPPOINTED, HAVING LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE 
DPP ADMINISTRATION, WHEREAS KMT SUPPORTERS ARE REGAINING 
THEIR CONFIDENCE AND CONSOLIDATING THEIR SUPPORT.  CHAIRMAN 
SU SAID HE IS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE ELECTION TURNOUT.  DPP 
TAINAN COUNTY CHAIRMAN KUO KUO-WEN, ON THE OTHER HAND, 
PUBLICLY QUESTIONED THE CREDIBILITY OF THE POLLING GIVEN THE 
FACT THERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE RESULTS OF THE TWO 
MOST RECENT POLLS, BUT ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THE POLLS SERVE AS A 
WARNING FOR ALL DPP CANDIDATES IN TAINAN COUNTY.  MAGISTRATE 
SU HUAN-CHI'S SPOKESMAN YEN CHUN-TZUO POINTED OUT THAT THE 
NEWSPAPER POLLING IS NOTHING MORE THAN REFERENCE MATERIAL, 
ARGUING THAT INTERNAL DPP POLLS INDICATE CANDIDATE SU HAS A 
LEAD OF MORE THAN 10 PERCENT. 
 
11.  (C)  THE TAINAN COUNTY "INDEX ELECTION" WILL BE ONE 
IMPORTANT GAUGE IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN OF HOW MUCH OF A HIT THE 
DPP HAS TAKEN IN ITS GRASSROOTS SUPPORT.  THE POOR TURNOUT AT 
THE NOVEMBER 12 CAMPAIGN VISIT BY PRESIDENT CHEN TO TAINAN 
COUNTY SUPPORTS THE IMPRESSION THAT THIS RACE WILL BE 
EXTREMELY HARD FOUGHT DESPITE THE DPP'S HOME COURT ADVANTAGE. 
 END COMMENT. 
Paal