US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8745

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 008745 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, KDEM, EG, Elections, Parliamentary Elections 
SUBJECT: THE BELL RINGS FOR ROUND TWO OF EGYPT'S 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CAIRO 8566 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  Egypt's second round of parliamentary elections--in 
Alexandria, and eight other governorates, where approximately 
1700 candidates are competing for 144 seats--were conducted 
on November 20 amidst GOE arrests of Muslim Brotherhood 
activists and multiple reports of attacks by NDP "bullies" on 
supporters of MB candidates.  Official results will not be 
available before November 21, and we expect that as with the 
first round, more than half of the races will be go to 
run-offs.  Early indications on election day are that NDP 
activists at the governorate level are doing what they can, 
both legally and extra-legally, to avoid a repeat of the MB's 
dramatic first round parliamentary gains.  Domestic monitors 
have also faced harassment and some violence from NDP 
supporters.  As in the first round, the security forces have 
taken a neutral role, but they were not successful in 
controlling violence in some cases.  The Ambassador called 
Minister of Investment (and NDP reformist), Mahmoud 
Mohieldin, to convey USG concern about the violence. 
Mohieldin promised to convey our message in party corridors. 
The Ambassador also reached out to Gamal Mubarak and left the 
same message with a senior aide.  Minister of Justice Aboul 
Leil gave a press conference at 1900 local time in which he 
laid the blame for the violence squarely on the MB and 
criticized the satellite channels for mis-reporting.  End 
summary. 
 
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The Gloves Come Off 
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2.  (C)  The day started with reports carried by the local 
and international media of 200-300 arrests, depending on the 
source, of Muslim Brotherhood activists in five of the nine 
governorates where voting is taking place.  The Independent 
Coalition on Election Monitoring (ICEM, which is supported by 
USAID and MEPI funding, as well as technical assistance from 
NDI and IRI) described the arrests as "systematic" and said 
that they targeted MB poll-watchers and candidate agents. 
Comment:  Arrests of these MB activists presumably would 
weaken the MB's ability to detect and report fraud in 
particular races.  End comment. 
 
Additional violations reported by ICEM, which said they had 
about 1500 monitors in the field, included the following: 
 
--Polls opened late in 65 percent of the stations observed. 
 
--Restrictions continue to be imposed on domestic observers, 
including wide-scale denial of access to polling stations, as 
well as an instance of physical assaults on a two observers 
by NDP supporters in Ismailia. 
 
--Attacks by NDP supporters ("Beltaguin," in Arabic, which 
can be translated as "bullies" or "thugs") on independent/MB 
supporters in a number of locations, especially in 
Alexandria, but also in Gharbiya, Ismailia, and Port Said. 
 
--Widespread, ongoing campaigning by supporters of all 
candidates, including immediately outside polling stations, 
which is outlawed. 
 
--In a report issued at 1600 hours local time, ICEM reported 
that violent incidents appeared to be increasing over the 
course of the day.  ICEM alleged that there had been at least 
two fatalities in Alexandria and multiple other incidents 
around the country of election-day violence.  ICEM asserted 
that "As the election process unfolds, it is becoming obvious 
that there is an organized campaign of violence with little 
or no effective police intervention or prevention." 
 
--Also late in the day, the Egyptian Association for 
Supporting Democracy (EASD, a MEPI grantee) issued a 
statement condemning assaults by NDP thugs on its chairman, 
Hamada Mansoor, a regular Embassy contact.  EASD also charged 
that at least eight other EASD monitors had been beaten in 
Alexandria, Beheira, Port Said, and Qena. 
 
3.   (C)  Emboffs deployed on November 20 to seven of the 
nine governorates where elections are taking place during the 
second round.  (Emboffs assessed the polls in Alexandria, 
Beheira, Qalubiya, Gharbiya, Suez, Ismailia, and Fayoum.  We 
did not visit Port Said or Qena.)  Our information about 
problems with this round of voting tracks closely with the 
initial reports released by domestic monitors. 
 
4.  (C)  Emboffs in the field collected many reports of 
irregularities and violence, although voting proceeded 
smoothly in some governorates, notably Suez.  Problems noted 
by emboffs included voting list errors, vote buying, 
assaults, illegal campaigning, and intimidation.  Police and 
others did not appear to take sides in the contests we 
observed, but in some cases they also did not take measures 
to contain violence or otherwise ensure the rule of law.  A 
summary of the problems we either observed or received 
reliable information about includes the following: 
 
--Thugs in Alexandria intimidated non-NDP voters and 
assaulted a domestic observer who was gathering information 
on NDP activists paying LE 50 per vote in the Mina Al-Bassal 
district. 
 
--NDP activists at polling stations in Alexandria's Dukhaila 
district engaged in a "revolving ballots" scam, which 
entailed providing prospective voters with pre-marked ballots 
which the voters smuggled into the polling station.  In the 
privacy of the voting booth, voters would pocket the blank 
ballots supplied by the voting officials.  They would then 
deposit the pre-filled ballots in the ballot box.  Upon 
exiting the polling station they would exchange their 
remaining blank ballots for payment. 
 
--Emboffs in Alexandria said that there have been reports of 
several violent deaths linked to the election.  (Al-Jazeera 
is reporting that one Mohammad Khalil, a driver for 
NDP-dissident candidate Hassan Hussain Hassan was killed by 
supporters of the official NDP candidate.) 
 
--Emboff in Ismailia observed publicly-owned transport 
vehicles, some from as far away as Giza and Cairo, being used 
to bus voters to the polls, presumably to vote for the NDP 
candidate. 
 
--Emboff in Ismailia encountered multiple Muslim Brotherhood 
supporters outside various polling stations who reported that 
roving bands of NDP thugs were moving about the city and 
attacking MB activists.  Several MB activists displayed the 
wounds they had received from the NDP men.  One man pulled 
back his collar to reveal a gash with 13 fresh stitches which 
he said had been inflicted during the morning's violence. 
 
--Port Said appeared to be particularly violent.  An 
International Republican Institute (IRI) visitor suggested 
that the security services were using clubs to attack MB 
activists.  The IRI visitor reported that he was departing 
Port Said due to concerns about the violence. 
 
--In the Abu Rish district of Beheira province, where MB 
heavyweight Gamal Hashmat reportedly "owns the streets," 
despite a major challenge from NDP parliamentary leader 
Mustafa Fiqqi, police used tear-gas to disperse a crowd of 
several hundred MB voters who were seeking to access the 
ballot station.  International journalists (including the LA 
Times correspondent) and a representative from the 
International Crisis Group witnessed the tear-gassing of the 
MB voters. 
 
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The MB Trying to Go Toe-to-Toe? 
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5.  (C)  The MB cadres have again made their mark by their 
organization and logistics.  Their activists were positioned 
outside most stations where MB candidates were running, using 
computerized voting lists to assist voters.  In Ismailia, MB 
activists carrying banners outside of several stations 
complained that they had been set upon by women thugs from 
the NDP who had ripped the banners and placards from their 
hands.  They noted that it would not have been "honorable" to 
respond to such assaults by women. 
 
6.  (C)  There have also been sporadic reports of MB 
activists getting the better of NDP thugs, including in 
clashes in Beheira, but the overwhelming majority of reports 
of violence suggest that the MB has not, as a rule, initiated 
the violence that has occurred. 
 
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Chairman of Parliamentary Elections Commission Speaks 
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7.  (SBU)  In televised press conference at 1900 hours local, 
Justice Minister Aboul Leil, who also heads the Parliamentary 
Elections Commission, asserted that MB activists had been the 
cause of the clashes.  He also criticized the international 
Arab satellite channels for "mis-reporting." 
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Comment 
 
8.  (C)  The MB's gains in round one appear to have surprised 
the GOE and the NDP.  Several MB commentators opined today 
that the NDP is seeking to avoid the high percentage of 
runoffs that it faced in round one, and thus has gone on the 
attack early in round two.  The official results of the 
November 20 elections should be available on November 21.  We 
expect that any races that do go to runoffs will witness a 
continuation of the emotion and violence that we have already 
witnessed at the start of round two. 
 
9.  (C)  The Ambassador called Investment Minister Mohieldin 
on the afternoon of November 20 to express concern about the 
reports of violence.  Mohieldin countered that the MB had 
also played a role in the fighting at the polls throughout 
the day.  Mohieldin urged the Ambassador to withhold judgment 
until a more thorough investigation could be conducted, but 
he promised to relay the Ambassador's concerns to other NDP 
leaders.  The Ambassador also placed a call to NDP Policies 
Committee Chairman Gamal Mubarak who was unavailable.  Karim 
Haggag, Gamal's foreign policy advisor, promised to convey 
our concerns to his boss.  End comment. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE