US embassy cable - 02HANOI2871

UNCLAS HANOI 002871 
 
SIPDIS 
UNCLASSIFIED     PTO2951 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AIT-03   CIAE-00  DS-00    FBIE-00  UTED-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00   M-00     NSAE-00 
      PER-00   TEST-00  DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /006W 
                  ------------------111AF1  020948Z /38 
R 020921Z DEC 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8229 
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 
AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AMCONSUL CHENGDU 
AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 
AMCONSUL HONG KONG 
AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 
AMCONSUL SHENYANG 
AIT TAIPEI 0711 
ASEAN COLLECTIVE 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ACHAO// 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 002871 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EAP/CM 
 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  02871  01 OF 02  020948Z 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CH, VM, CVR 
SUBJECT:  HANOI'S VIEW OF CHINA'S 16TH PARTY CONGRESS 
 
REF:  A.  HANOI 1290    B. HANOI 2417 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY.  OBSERVERS IN HANOI ASSESSED THE 
RECENTLY CONCLUDED CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY (CCP) 16TH PARTY 
CONGRESS AS "POSITIVE" AND PREDICTED THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF 
VIETNAM'S (CPV) LEADERSHIP WOULD CLOSELY STUDY ITS DECISIONS 
WHILE STEERING ITS OWN COURSE OVER THE NEXT DECADE.  CPV 
OFFICIALS DECLINED TO MEET WITH EMBOFFS ON THIS SUBJECT, 
DESPITE OUR REPEATED REQUESTS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------- 
WE'RE PAYING ATTENTION 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  DR. NGUYEN HUY QUY, DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF 
CHINA STUDIES OF THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES AND 
HUMANITIES IN VIETNAM, COMMENTED TO POLOFF THAT "PARTY 
LEADERS IN VIETNAM ALWAYS WATCH CLOSELY WHAT HAPPENS IN 
CHINA AND WILL DO SO THIS TIME."  SPECIFICALLY, DR. QUY 
NOTED THAT THE 16TH CCP CONGRESS HAD "REAFFIRMED THE 
PROGRESS" MADE DURING THE TENURE OF PRC HEAD OF STATE AND 
PARTY JIANG ZEMIN, AND ENSHRINED JIANG'S "THREE REPRESENTS" 
THEORY AS ONE OF THE "FOUNDATIONS" OF THE CCP.  DR. QUY 
ASSESSED THAT JIANG'S TENURE HAD EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE 
OF "BUILDING A WELL-OFF SOCIETY" AND "INCLUDING PRIVATE 
ENTERPRISE ELEMENTS" IN THE CCP.  DR. QUY CLAIMED THAT CPV 
LEADERS ARE LOOKING CLOSELY AT THIS "EVOLUTION" OF THE CCP 
AND "WILL NO DOUBT STUDY" ITS APPLICABILITY TO VIETNAM. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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WITH THE PRC'S "FAST-GROWING MARKET ECONOMY," "ADJUSTMENTS" 
BY THE CCP ARE "INEVITABLE," HE ADDED.  DR. QUY SUGGESTED 
THIS WILL ALSO APPLY TO THE CPV, ALBEIT AT A "MORE 
DELIBERATE PACE, SINCE CHINA IS SO FAR AHEAD OF VIETNAM 
ECONOMICALLY."  DR QUY OPINED THAT SUCH ADJUSTMENTS ARE 
"HEALTHY AND SHOULD LEAD TO MORE DEMOCRATIC POLICIES." 
 
3.  (SBU)  SEPARATELY, COLONEL TRAN NHUNG, INTERNATIONAL 
DEPARTMENT DIRECTOR OF THE "PEOPLE'S ARMY" NEWSPAPER, 
PREDICTED THAT CPV LEADERS "WILL STUDY CLOSELY" THE RESULTS 
OF THE CCP CONGRESS, ESPECIALLY CONCERNING 
"INDUSTRIALIZATION AND PRIVATE ENTERPRISE" AS WELL AS 
"BUILDING A WELL-OFF SOCIETY."  HE OPINED THAT THE CCP 
CONGRESS COULD SERVE AS SOMETHING OF A "ROAD MAP" FOR THE 
CPV'S NEXT PARTY CONGRESS IN 2006.  COLONEL NHUNG SAID THAT, 
"PERSONALLY," HE "LIKED THE TRENDS" EVIDENCED DURING THE CCP 
CONGRESS AND THAT THERE WAS MUCH THAT WAS "USEFUL" FOR THE 
CPV TO CONSIDER.  HOWEVER, HE CAUTIONED, CPV POLICIES WOULD 
NECESSARILY "REFLECT THE DIFFERENT CONDITIONS IN VIETNAM," 
NOT MERELY COPY THE CCP'S DECISIONS. 
 
4.  (SBU)  DR. QUY ALSO PREDICTED THAT, BY THE NEXT CPV 
PARTY CONGRESS IN 2006, "IT IS LIKELY" THAT THE CPV WOULD 
ADOPT LANGUAGE "SIMILAR TO THE CCP" CONCERNING THE INCLUSION 
OF PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURS AS PARTY MEMBERS.  SIMILARLY, 
COLONEL NHUNG NOTED THAT THE "TREND IN THAT DIRECTION IS 
ALREADY CLEAR, AS DEMONSTRATED IN THE FIFTH PARTY PLENUM" 
EARLIER IN 2002. 
 
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MINIMAL IMPACT ON BILATERAL RELATIONS 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U)  DR. QUY OPINED THAT THE CCP CONGRESS AND THE 
RESULTING CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP "SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH, IF 
ANY, IMPACT ON THE PRC-VIETNAM RELATIONSHIP" BECAUSE "THESE 
DAYS THE RELATIONSHIP IS VERY STABLE" (REFTELS).  HE 
CLAIMED, HOWEVER, THAT WHILE THE PRC STILL "INFLUENCES 
VIETNAM HEAVILY," VIETNAM WILL CONTINUE TO "LOOK MORE TO THE 
WEST IN THIS ERA OF GLOBALIZATION."  COLONEL NHUNG COMMENTED 
THAT "RELATIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL SINCE 1991" AND THAT 
"THE NEW CCP LEADERSHIP IS VERY FAMILIAR WITH VIETNAM." 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
6.  (U)  AS THE PRC'S OVERALL INFLUENCE HAS CONTINUED TO 
GROW STEADILY SINCE NORMALIZATION RESUMED IN 1991, VIETNAM 
WATCHES EVERYTHING THE PRC DOES VERY CLOSELY, INCLUDING -- 
OR PERHAPS ESPECIALLY -- REGARDING PARTY AFFAIRS.  NOT TO 
OUR GREAT SURPRISE BUT DISAPPOINTINGLY, CPV EXTERNAL 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ5253 
 
PAGE 01        HANOI  02871  02 OF 02  020948Z 
ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AIT-03   CIAE-00  DS-00    FBIE-00  UTED-00 
      VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00   LAB-01   VCE-00   M-00     NSAE-00 
      PER-00   TEST-00  DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00 
        /006W 
                  ------------------111AF9  020948Z /38 
R 020921Z DEC 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8230 
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 
AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AMCONSUL CHENGDU 
AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 
AMCONSUL HONG KONG 
AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 
AMCONSUL SHENYANG 
AIT TAIPEI 0712 
ASEAN COLLECTIVE 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ACHAO// 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 002871 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EAP/CM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  02871  02 OF 02  020948Z 
 
 
COMMISSION OFFICIALS DECLINED TO MEET WITH POLOFFS TO 
DISCUSS THE CCP CONGRESS AND THE LARGER ISSUE OF VIETNAM/PRC 
TIES.  EVER CAUTIOUS, CPV OFFICIALS MAY BELIEVE BOTH THAT 
THEIR VIEWS OF THE CONGRESS AND THE CCP ARE NONE OF THE 
USG'S BUSINESS, AND/OR THAT THE VIETNAM-PRC RELATIONSHIP IS 
STILL TOO SENSITIVE TO DISCUSS OPENLY WITH US. 
BURGHARDT 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED