US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6557

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006557 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/IPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, IS, IR, TU, AE, GOI EXTERNAL, HUMANITARIAN AID, ISRAELI SOCIETY, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: A/S LOWENKRON'S CONSULTATIONS AT THE MINISTRY OF 
FOREIGN AFFAIRS 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR NORMAN H. OLSEN, FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) 
 AND (d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: DRL Assistant Secretary Barry Lowenkron 
discussed a range of democracy and human rights reform issues 
with senior MFA officials Yoram Ben-Zeev, Aharon Leshno Yaar 
and Harry Kneiy-Tal.  Topics included the November 14 BMENA 
Forum for the Future meeting in Bahrain, internal 
developments in Syria and Iran, and U.S. plans to press for a 
smaller, more credible Human Rights Commission.  Ben-Zeev 
said that many in the GOI remain skeptical about BMENA and 
the prospects for democracy in the Middle East, but that he 
supported the initiative and wanted to explore ways Israel 
could contribute.  Yaar reported that the GOI supports the 
USG drive to create a more effective Human Rights Commission 
and has adopted a more cooperative attitude toward special 
rapporteurs, with the exception of Special Rapporteur John 
Dugard, whose tenure and mandate the GOI would like to end. 
Kneiy-Tal said the GOI does not foresee near-term change in 
either Syria or Iran, whose governments face differing 
external constraints but retain a firm grip on internal 
control.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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GOI CAUTIOUS ABOUT AIMS OF BMENA, BUT ASKS TO PARTICIPATE 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
2.  (C) A/S Lowenkron told MFA Deputy Director General and 
Head for North America Yoram Ben-Zeev that the Forum for the 
Future has attracted great interest from BMENA countries.  As 
evidence of this trend, Lowenkron cited a dramatic increase 
in government and NGO participation in BMENA.  While only a 
few middle eastern governments attended the June 2004 Sea 
Island G-8 Summit, almost every government in the region and 
a few NGOs attended the December 2004 BMENA Forum for the 
Future in Rabat, and all the governments in the region, 
including Iran and Syria, plus 40 NGOs, attended the 
just-completed BMENA Forum for the Future in Bahrain.  During 
the forum, Lowenkron said, governments and NGOs actively 
debated democratization ideas in the region. 
 
3.  (C) Ben-Zeev said that the GOI seeks to participate in 
BMENA.  He cautioned, however, that skeptical Israeli 
officials perceive two main problems with BMENA.  "Deep in 
our hearts," Ben-Zeev said, "we don't believe democracy will 
work in this region."  If it does work, Ben-Zeev added, 
Israeli officials believe it will bring Islamists to power. 
 
4.  (C) Ben-Zeev said that he personally thinks the GOI will 
gain from democratization in the region.  He said he 
understands that BMENA reflects a long-term, strategic goal 
rather than a short-term, tactical policy.  GOI officials, 
Ben-Zeev suggested, "can help BMENA by describing how the GOI 
introduced democracy to Arab-Israelis."  A/S Lowenkron asked 
Ben-Zeev to send him the GOI's ideas for participation in 
BMENA, and a list of Israeli NGOs that might participate.  He 
also urged Ben-Zeev to "overcome your skeptics." 
 
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GOI TO COOPERATE ON HR COMMISSION, RAPPORTEURS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  (C) A/S Lowenkron told MFA Deputy Director General for UN 
and International Organizations Affairs Aharon Leshno Yaar 
that the USG will press for a small, credible Human Rights 
Commission.  The USG goal is to deny membership to states 
that violate human rights: "to make sure the bad guys are 
never there and the good guys are in"  On balance, he felt 
that the former is more important than the latter. 
 
6.  (C) Yaar reported that the GOI supports the USG drive to 
create a more effective Human Rights Commission.  He said 
that he will work on a committee led by Swiss Permanent 
Representative to the UN Peter Maurer in New York in order to 
understand and influence Swiss ideas for reforming the Human 
Rights Commission. 
 
7.  (C) Yaar said the GOI has adopted a more cooperative 
approach to special rapporteurs, but seeks to change the 
mandate for the special rapporteur on the situation of human 
rights in the Palestinian territories, John Dugard.  When 
Dugard's second term finishes next year, Yaar said, the GOI 
will request not only a new rapporteur, but a more fair and 
balanced mandate that takes terrorism into account.  More 
broadly, Yaar said, GOI officials hope their positive 
attitude toward the UN will reduce European antipathy toward 
Israel.  "Instead of complaining, we are looking for ways to 
cooperate with and support the UN, while at the same time not 
ignoring the problems with some resolutions and several 
committees."  Yaar noted that the GOI has begun sponsoring 
more resolutions than ever before in the UN Third Committee. 
8.  (C) Yaar added, however, that his effort to convince his 
colleagues in the MFA to take UN reform seriously has been a 
real struggle, not only because they believe a number of UN 
resolutions unfairly target Israel, but also because they 
perceive the Europeans to be virulently anti-Israel.  Yaar 
cited as typical of European disdain for Israel the French 
reaction to the GOI vote against UNESCO's global convention 
for the protection of cultural diversity.  The French have 
threatened to retaliate, Yaar reported, by voting against 
appointment of the Israeli architect nominated to serve as a 
member of the World Heritage Committee. 
 
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GOI DOES NOT FORESEE CHANGE IN SYRIA OR IRAN 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) MFA Director of the Center for Political Research 
Harry Kneiy-Tal told Lowenkron that the GOI does not foresee 
near-term change in either Syria or Iran.  Kneiy-Tal said 
that the GOI sees Bashar Assad as weakened but in control, 
and believes it is possible to change Assad's behavior 
without changing his regime.  Assad's downfall, Kneiy-Tal 
said, could even provide Al Quaeda an opportunity to take 
over the whole country.  Kneiy-Tal claimed that three 
internal groups currently oppose Assad: the liberals, who are 
not organized; the Kurds, whom Assad has appeased through 
promises of citizenship; and the Islamists, who represent a 
significant and growing threat.  None of these groups, 
Kneiy-Tal said, have yet created any "cracks in Assad's inner 
circle," members of which have remained loyal and united. 
Buoyed by this resolute group of insiders, Kneiy-Tal said, 
Assad has effectively used the Baath Party as a tool to 
retain control of the country. 
 
10.  (C) Kneiy-Tal said Assad hopes he can apply the "China 
model" in Syria, fostering economic development while 
retaining political control.  Assad has recognized that total 
isolation will undermine this goal, Kneiy-Tal said, and Assad 
is even willing to cut a deal with the USG, wherein the 
Syrians will cooperate on issues related to Iraq if the U.S. 
will tone down its pressure on Assad's regime.  Assad has 
also turned to Russian leaders, Kneiy-Tal reported, to help 
his regime through diplomatic gestures.  Kneiy-Tal said 
Russian officials seek to gain prestige by communicating on 
behalf of the international community with leaders in both 
Damascus and Tehran, that they can avert international 
pressure if they change their behavior. 
 
11.  (C) Iranian leaders, however, have more options to 
respond to external demands than do Syrian leaders, Kneiy-Tal 
said, because they have leverage with the EU-3 and can use 
Iran's oil reserves to influence India, China, Russia, and 
others.  Kneiy-Tal explained that this shield against foreign 
influence has contributed to the increasingly insular nature 
of political dialogue in Iran.  Whereas during the presidency 
of Mohammad Khatami conservatives and reformers debated one 
another, now debate occurs only within conservative circles, 
between ideologues and pragmatists, Kneiy-Tal said.  The key 
question, according to Kneiy-Tal, remains the extent to which 
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will rein in President 
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 
 
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