US embassy cable - 05SANJOSE2689

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002689 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN JASON MACK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ETRD, PREL, ELAB, CS 
SUBJECT: ANTI-CAFTA FORCES HEARTENED BY SUCCESSFUL PROTEST 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 1153 
 
     B. SAN JOSE 2215 
     C. SAN JOSE 2248 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. On November 17, about 10,000 protesters participated in 
the first major demonstration to follow President Abel 
Pacheco's presentation of the U.S.-Central America-Dominican 
Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) to the Legislative 
Assembly.  While the demonstration, organized by labor and 
student unions, was generally considered a great success for 
the organizers, its draw was limited to members of the 
organizing bodies, which pro-CAFTA business leaders were 
quick to point out.  More demonstrations are expected in the 
coming months as the Legislative Assembly debates the free 
trade agreement; the success of the November 17 march will 
undoubtedly energize opposition forces and encourage 
ambitious plans for future events.  End summary. 
 
2. On November 17, labor unions and student groups staged 
what was anticipated to be a major demonstration against 
CAFTA-DR.  Participants convened in various locations around 
the capital and later converged on the Legislative Assembly 
buildings, where legislators are expected to begin the long 
process of CAFTA-DR ratification later this month.  The 
protesters were generally peaceful, and many carried signs 
denouncing every public figure that has come out in support 
of CAFTA-DR.  Simultaneously, there were other, smaller 
anti-CAFTA demonstrations throughout the country. 
 
3. The march was organized and attended primarily by four 
groups: the National Association of Public and Private 
Employees (ANEP), the unions of the Costa Rican Electricity 
Institute (ICE), the Secondary School Teachers' Association 
(APSE), and student groups from the University of Costa Rica. 
 Several national political figures participated in the 
event, among them minor presidential candidates Humberto Arce 
and Walter Munoz and several anti-CAFTA-DR legislators. 
Other anti-CAFTA-DR demonstrations are expected to follow 
over the coming months.  Pro-CAFTA-DR groups are organizing 
their own demonstration on November 24. 
 
4. Estimates on the size of the crowd have varied widely. 
Influential daily newspaper La Nacion offered a graphical 
analysis of crowd density and a resulting estimate of 18,000 
participants.  Costa Rican security officials told us 
informally that their estimate, based on the number of busses 
involved, was closer to 7,800.  Based on pictures and 
eyewitness accounts from embassy personnel, the actual number 
of participants was likely somewhere between those two 
estimates.  Embassy, which witnessed the demonstration, has 
settled on a round 10,000.  Event organizers were a bit more 
fanciful in their estimations, with Albino Vargas, the head 
of ANEP and one of the country's leading anti-CAFTA-DR 
figures, estimating the crowd at 50,000, and Jesus Vasquez, 
head of the teachers' union, shooting for the moon with an 
estimate of 80,000. 
 
5. Regardless of the actual numbers, the march was considered 
an enormous success for the anti-CAFTA-DR movement.  After 
several lackluster, poorly attended events over the past year 
(see reftels), organizers were able to rally thousands in a 
peaceful, colorful demonstration of opposition to the free 
trade agreement.  Business leaders also claimed victory, 
however, citing scant support for the demonstrations outside 
the organizing groups. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. The relative success of this event will undoubtedly 
encourage opposition leaders to push forward with plans for 
more demonstrations, especially when debate in the 
Legislative Assembly begins.  Prior to the November 17 
demonstration, many observers had written off the 
opposition's ability to organize large anti-CAFTA-DR crowds. 
While they have proven skeptics wrong for now, they still 
face a daunting challenge to deliver their promised 
nationwide strikes, the threat of which for months caused 
President Pacheco not to send CAFTA-DR to the Legislative 
Assembly. 
LANGDALE