US embassy cable - 05BRATISLAVA924

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BRATISLAVA 000924 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, ETRD, PREL, SOCI, PINR, BO, LO 
SUBJECT: SLOVAKS DISCUSS BELARUS ENGAGEMENT STRATEGY, THE 
NEED FOR MORE EU INVOLVEMENT, AND THE POWER OF THE PRESS 
 
REF: A. STATE 208887 
 
     B. BRATISLAVA 804 
     C. STATE 168836 
 
Classified By: CDA a.i. Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and ( 
D). 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  During a series of recent meetings we have 
engaged our Slovak interlocutors in both the GOS and NGO 
community about democracy promotion efforts and strategy in 
Belarus, and spoken with several visiting Belarusian 
opposition figures about Slovak and EU engagement in the 
country.  From these discussions -- particularly a roundtable 
hosted by the local International Republican Institute (IRI) 
-- we have heard several common themes.  Among them: the need 
for increased focus on and assistance to print and radio 
media, a complaint (in front of the representative of the EU 
Presidency) that the EU does not do enough in Belarus, and 
the idea that Belarusian activists (and their families) 
forced from Belarus should receive financial assistance as an 
investment in the future of Belarus.  Finally, the issue of 
Russian subsidies for Belarusian oil and gas exports was 
raised, with the former Prime Minister of Lithuania 
encouraging the U.S. to use its leverage in the WTO to change 
the equation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
IRI:  TO KNOW THE OPPOSITION IS TO LOVE IT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
2.  (C)  In recent days we have engaged a variety of GOS, NGO 
and foreign government officials regarding Slovak, regional, 
and EU involvement in Belarus.  During a roundtable 
discussion hosted by IRI featuring a variety of foreign 
government officials (including three former Prime Ministers 
from Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia), IRI presented polling 
data collected by their office in Vilnius that reemphasized 
the importance of media engagement in democratization 
efforts.  Specifically, IRI cited figures that showed that a 
lack of electronic media (and the "repetition" of message it 
brings) is limiting the growth of popular awareness of the 
opposition.  When Belarusian voters are made aware of the 
presence of the opposition, a "fair fight" between Lukashenko 
and opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich emerges in the 
polling data.  Of those who have not heard of the unified 
opposition candidate, 60 percent support Lukashenko; of those 
who have heard of Milinkevich, Lukashenko and Milinkevich are 
in a "dead heat" with polling numbers in the high 30s.  IRI 
noted that the Lukashenko regime's attempt at painting the 
opposition as "homosexuals" backfired, as the press coverage 
of the opposition conference -- including several 
government-planted actors in what IRI described as 
Shakespearean dress -- only drummed up more curiosity about 
what the opposition really was. 
 
COMPLAINTS ABOUT INSUFFICIENT EU ACTION 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Stefan Rozkopal, who directs the Third Territorial 
Division at the Slovak MFA (which covers everything "from 
Lubljana to Vladivostok") was surprisingly critical of EU 
efforts in Belarus, in front of the British Ambassador to 
Slovakia (who was attending the roundtable in the capacity of 
the EU Presidency).  Rozkopal, who told DCM on November 15 
that Slovakia has agreed within the Visegraad Four (V-4) to 
take the lead on Belarus issues, has told us in the past that 
Slovakia "doesn't want to miss any opportunity to make public 
statements" about the Lukashenko regime and that he, 
personally, believes the EU position paper on Belarus could 
go even further.  He told the roundtable that he believes the 
EU could devote more attention and activism to Belarus. 
Similarly, former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius 
told the roundtable that he, too, believes that the EU can 
and should do more in Belarus.  He specifically suggested 
opposition to the Russian oil and gas subsidies on Russian 
exports to Belarus, which provide Russia with undue influence 
in the country; he suggested that this is an issue where the 
United States -- via the WTO negotiation framework -- might 
be able to use this leverage in Moscow to affect change. 
(COMMENT:  We pass this point along as it was said. 
Addressees will be able to make a better assessment as to its 
validity and advisability.  END COMMENT.) 
 
RADIO VS. PRINT MEDIA 
--------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Our interlocutors differ on what is the best media 
venue for the pro-democracy message.  Some think the best way 
is via hard-copy, more traditional printed materials; others 
believe the electronic media represents the best, most 
repetitious way to spread awareness of the need for democracy 
in Belarus.  Former Polish Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek 
emphasized the importance of Radio Free Europe during the 
 
Cold War, noting that what was important was not the amount 
of information, but the fact that Poland could receive "even 
just a few sentences" a week of outside information that 
served to remind the people that the world cared about them. 
 
THE NEED FOR PRINT MEDIA 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (C)  During a brief encounter with visiting Belarusian 
opposition members Anatolij Lebedko (Chairman, United Civic 
Party), Vincuk Viachorka (Chairman, Belarusian Popular 
Front), and Lyudmila Gryaznova (Vice Chairman, United Civic 
Party), all of whom were in Bratislava to meet with Prime 
Minister Dzurinda on November 16, Ambassador was told of 
Belarus' need for increased printing capacity.  The three 
opposition members noted that many independent printing 
presses had been shut down by the Lukashenko regime and that 
they found grassroots, door-to-door organizing to be highly 
effective.  The problem, they told Ambassador, was that they 
had "nothing to leave behind" when they visited homes.  At 
the IRI roundtable, there was a discussion of a pre-existing 
proposal to fund four mobile printing presses at the cost of 
USD 250,000; the proposal was warmly received as a good 
complement to electronic media. 
 
6.  (C)  Ambassador asked the opposition figures about the 
issue of radio broadcasting, and specifically in which 
language broadcasting would be most effective.  The 
opposition members said that Belarusian would be the 
preferred language, not because it is most effective (IRI 
believes that 70 percent of Belarusians conduct their daily 
lives in Russian), but because it makes the political 
statement that the outside world is conducting the broadcasts 
for Belarus, that Belarusians matter, and -- as mentioned by 
Buzek about Radio Free Europe programming to Poland under 
Communism -- that the outside world "cares" and supports them. 
 
SUPPORTING DISSIDENTS ABROAD, AND THEIR FAMILIES AT HOME 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
7.  (C)  Those present at the roundtable also discussed the 
need for the specific "targeting" of Belarusian government 
officials for visa and travel bans, noting that anything 
broader adversely affects the Belarusian population, many of 
whom return from trips abroad very aware of the problems and 
lack of transparency within their own government.  Moreover, 
the opposition leaders told the Ambassador that, while they 
are appreciative of U.S. efforts in Minsk and within Belarus, 
there are many dissidents who have been forced abroad by the 
regime; the leaders encouraged the U.S. and EU to explore the 
possibility of supporting these dissidents abroad, as well as 
their families at home, providing a "safety net" which would, 
in turn, encourage more people in Belarus to become active in 
the struggle for democracy. 
SILVERMAN 
 
 
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