US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA2347

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 002347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
NSC FOR DAN FISK 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2035 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, ECON, KCRM, PINR, HO 
SUBJECT: 10 DAYS TO HONDURAN ELECTIONS A FAIRLY CONFIDENT 
LOBO BARELY LEADS ZELAYA; COULD BE CLOSEST RACE EVER 
 
REF: TEGUCIGALPA 2346 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Charles Ford; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Ten days before the November 27 general 
elections, National Party presidential candidate Porfirio 
"Pepe" Lobo has a slight lead over Liberal Party presidential 
candidate Mel Zelaya in all non-Liberal Party polls, leading 
by 3 percent in probably the most accurate poll.  Ambassador 
has met with both candidates to emphasize the USG's interest 
in free and fair elections, including the importance of 
national observers.  Mudslinging is fierce, with both major 
parties alleging planned or ongoing fraud by their opponent. 
A regulation permitting a domestic election observation 
effort, key to transparency, was finally approved November 16 
after intensive Embassy efforts.  While both candidates would 
continue the strong bilateral relationship, Lobo would likely 
lead a better organized and effective government than Zelaya, 
if their administrations would be anything like their 
campaigns.  With the campaigns officially ending November 21, 
the Embassy judges the November 27 election as too close to 
call at this point.  With no Honduran presidential victory 
ever having been by less than 6 percent, the Honduran 
electorate is not prepared for a squeaker.  Post fears that 
the likelihood of the losing party alleging fraud is very 
high, particularly if the National Party wins.  End Summary. 
 
Lobo Beating Zelaya - But Not By Much 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Tracking polls conducted nationally by Ingenieria 
Gerencial show National Party candidate and President of 
Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo edging Liberal Party candidate 
Manuel "Mel" Zelaya.  The 3 percent lead is barely above 
margin of error, approximately 2.5 percent, with no 
significant anomalies from historic party tendencies in 
regional areas.  Support for the two parties is close, with 
the Liberal Party holding a 1 percent lead over the National 
Party.  An October 22-26 poll by CID Gallup has Lobo leading 
Zelaya by eight percent, with a margin of error of less than 
3 percent.  A November 1-10 poll by Le Vote Harris has Lobo 
leading Zelaya by 4 percent, with a margin of error of less 
than 3 percent.  Lobo told the Ambassador November 16 that 
there is a "hidden vote" that will support him but is afraid 
to tell pollsters for fear of the gangs, who Lobo attacks 
daily in his campaign speeches.  A key Liberal Party 
consultant told PolChief November 17 that their internal 
polls have Zelaya leading Lobo by 2-3 percent, however this 
is not reflected in any other polls. 
 
3. (SBU) The congressional vote is anyone's guess, with some 
believing that voters will split their vote and elect the 
best candidates from across the five party spectrum. 
However, even with that happening to some extent, a likely 
straight ticket voting among National and Liberal voters will 
give their congressional candidates a high enough floor to 
squeeze out most candidates from the three small parties (see 
septel on the proportional system used for congressional 
elections). 
 
4. (SBU) While the two parties poll almost equally in most 
polls, the conventional wisdom is that there are more 
Liberals than Nationalists.  However, Lobo consistently 
receives a higher percentage of National support than 
Zelaya's percentage of Liberal support, reflecting a more 
loyal and disciplined National Party.  In addition, Lobo 
leads slightly among independents.  In most polls Lobo is 
stronger among the young, and Zelaya stronger among the old, 
but only by small margins.  Lobo leads Zelaya among women, 
and Zelaya leads among men.  However, given the fact that 
there are more potential female voters (due in large part to 
the higher number of men who have immigrated to the U.S.) 
this helps Lobo overall.  There is no noticeable difference 
in preferences among other groups (Catholic/Protestant, 
rich/poor, etc.) between the two parties. 
 
5. (SBU) As of a November 3 poll from Ingenieria Gerencial, 
voters say that the main problems confronting the country are 
crime (36 percent), the cost of living (34 percent when 
including the high cost of gasoline), followed closely by 
unemployment (25 percent), with corruption a distant fourth 
(6 percent).  When asked which candidate voters prefer on 
these issues, Lobo enjoys a 7 percent advantage on crime and 
a 4 percent advantage on jobs, and Zelaya ties Lobo on the 
cost of living.  President Ricardo Maduro's favorability 
ratings are still bad, with a majority rating his work as 
bad/very bad. 
 
6. (SBU) National Party candidate for Tegucigalpa Mayor 
Ricardo Alvarez is easily beating his Liberal Party opponent, 
Enrique "Kike" Ortez, and now leads 48 to 30 percent 
according to an October 26 Ingenieria Gerencial poll.  The 
Nationalist candidate in San Pedro Sula, Arturo "Tuky" 
Bendana was tied with his Liberal Party opponent Rafael 
Padilla Sunceri in the same poll, with both at 34 percent. 
Alvarez told PolChief November 16 that he feels confident 
that he will win with a large margin, and also claimed that 
there is a "hidden vote" for Lobo in Tegucigalpa, recounting 
how when he drives the city in truck with loudspeaker he is 
greeted by residents with a raised right clenched fist, 
Lobo's symbol. 
 
Both Parties Paranoid 
--------------------- 
 
7. (C) Senior National Party leaders, including Lobo, 
President Maduro, VP candidate Mario Canahuati, and a host of 
others, including ministers and political operatives (such as 
political operative David Matamoros), continue to emphasize 
in meetings with USG officials their alleged suspicion of 
ties between Zelaya and the Liberals with the Sandinistas in 
Nicaragua and/or Chavez in Venezuela.  Liberal Party 
President Patricia Rodas is usually a key target of these 
attacks.  EmbOffs have been treated to various versions of 
this message, including a printout of a power point 
presentation, that rehash the same allegations with no proof. 
 
8. (C) Lobo told the AMB November 16 that the Nationals are 
very worried about possible fraud, citing specifically the 
voting list, the transmission of preliminary presidential 
results election night, and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's 
(TSE's) comportment.  Post notes that USAID's election 
consultant has told EmbOffs that the TSE's behavior is night 
and day from that prior to the primaries, with delay, 
disorganization, and politization. 
 
9. (C) Senior Liberal Party leaders, meanwhile, have been 
increasingly vocal about alleged National Party schemes to 
steal the election.  One supposed scheme is that the National 
Party will be paying Liberal Party voters 500-1,000 lempiras 
(USD 26-53) to not vote, by having them leave their ID with 
National Party operatives during election day.  Zelaya joked 
to the AMB in a November 9 meeting that many people have two 
IDs and will try to get the money and still vote on their 
other ID.  The Liberals have not been able to provide any 
proof to substantiate these allegations. 
 
Domestic Election Observer Regulation Finally Approved 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
10. (C) After several weeks of bureaucratic haggling and an 
intense week of political gamesmanship, the TSE finally 
approved late November 16 the regulations authorizing a 
domestic election observation effort by civil society groups, 
led by the umbrella NGO FOPRIDEH backed by USAID.  EmbOffs, 
including AMB, DCM, AID Director, PolChief, and AIDOff, have 
repeatedly advocated for a broad authorization for domestic 
observers that would not limit their numbers or scope of 
authority.  In repeated meetings and phone calls with the TSE 
magistrates and senior officials of their three respective 
parties (National, Liberal, and Christian Democrat) EmbOffs 
made clear that the USG expected the TSE to authorize a 
domestic election observation and that the USG would be 
significantly disappointed with any effort to quash one. 
Most of the Embassy's effort was focused on the National 
Party, who along with their Christian Democrat ally on the 
TSE, were both delaying the regulation and suggesting 
 
SIPDIS 
multiple significant restrictions. 
 
11. (C) The Ambassador specifically emphasized the importance 
of domestic election observers as part of a transparent 
election in separate meetings November 9 with the two leading 
candidates, their VP candidates, and campaign staff. 
Following the Ambassador's intervention in a breakfast with 
President Maduro November 15 and a one-on-one meeting with 
Lobo November 16, the National Party seemed to finally get 
the message, resulting in the TSE approval of the regulation 
the 16th.  Now, implementation of the regulation is key, and 
EmbOffs, as well as the G-16 representing international 
donors, will be vigilant to make sure the regulations are 
interpreted and enforced in such a way as to facilitate, not 
hinder, the domestic election observation effort. 
 
12. (SBU) Unfortunately the OAS election observation effort 
has yet to get off the ground, with the Embassy forcing the 
OAS to accelerate their preparations as the Embassy seeks to 
finalize plans for the approximately 50 person Embassy 
volunteer effort.  The OAS Chief of Mission, Moises Benamor, 
arrives in Tegucigalpa November 19. 
 
Campaign Themes: Security and Work vs. Citizen Power 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
13. (SBU) Lobo has campaign with a consistent message, work 
and security, with an emphasis on his tough on crime 
anti-gang stance.  Lobo clearly hopes that Oscar Alvarez's 
resignation as Minister of Public Security to actively 
campaign with Lobo and criticize Zelaya will boost Lobo. 
Zelaya's has not been as focused, but has emphasized "citizen 
power" and tried hard to link Lobo to the unpopular Maduro 
Administration, campaigning to throw out the Nationals. 
Neither campaign has paid great attention to their specific 
"government plans", as the Liberals publicly announced their 
plan November 7 (in a small conference room with a Power 
Point presentation), and Lobo November 17 (in a large 
convention room with a flashy stage-managed series of 
speeches reminiscent of a U.S. political convention).  Both 
campaigns will hold large closing rallies November 21 (the 
electoral law sets that date as the end of the campaign 
season). 
 
What Would a Lobo Victory Mean for the U.S.? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
14. (S) A Lobo victory would mean a large degree of policy 
continuation from the Maduro Administration.  Lobo, a 
pragmatist who has swung from attending school in Moscow (he 
also attended school in Miami) to campaigning as a 
conservative over the course of his career, would likely 
continue the Maduro Administration's support of USG foreign 
policy positions.  He is proud of his accomplishments as 
President of Congress and sees himself as a can-do guy who 
does not want to let issues fester and get in the way of a 
strong bilateral relationship.  As evidence of this, PolChief 
recently met with Lobo at his request to brief him on the 
Embassy's cooperation with the GOH on reforming the 
mismanaged and corrupt Immigration office.  Lobo made clear 
he understood the issue was of national security importance 
for the U.S. and pledged to pass reform legislation, if 
necessary, in a lame duck session of Congress in December to 
help resolve the problem.  His administration would likely be 
better organized than a Liberal one, mimicking their 
respective campaigns.  Whether Lobo would help the U.S. when 
it clashed with his direct interests is unclear: he was not 
helpful to the Embassy during the run-up to the selection of 
National Party lawyer Ovidio Navarro as Attorney General. 
 
What Would a Zelaya Victory Mean for the U.S.? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
15. (S) A Zelaya victory would mean wholesale personnel 
change in the GOH, with Nationals being replaced by Liberals, 
and would likely mean some important policy changes. 
However, it would not likely result in any changes that 
significantly negatively impact U.S. interests.  While Rodas 
and some other prominent Liberals are leftist, they go out of 
their way to make clear they value the bilateral relationship 
and laugh off allegations of collusion with the Sandinistas 
or Chavez.  While Zelaya has a good reputation from his days 
as a minister, his campaign has been disorganized and often 
ineffective, which leads Post to fear his government would be 
similar.  Zelaya seems to lack a sense of what the key issues 
are to the bilateral relationship that Lobo and his former 
Ambassador to the U.S. VP candidate Canahuati seem to 
instinctively grasp.  Zelaya's campaign manager, former 
Ambassador to the U.S. Hugo Noe Pino, does seem to grasp 
those issues, but Noe Pino competes with Rodas for Zelaya's 
attention.  Zelaya has not been in a position of government 
authority recently to be tested if he can deliver on issues 
of greatest concern to the USG that may be politically 
painful. 
 
Still Too Close to Call 
----------------------- 
 
16. (C) Comment: The presidential race is still too close to 
call, and while Lobo would appear to have the advantage in 
the polls and organizationally, a recent surge by Zelaya and 
the Liberals overall advantage in numbers of traditional 
supporters makes the race a toss-up.  For these reasons 
turnout is key, and the election observation efforts, both 
OAS and domestic, are even more crucial.  With no Honduran 
presidential race ever having been won by a margin smaller 
than 6 percent, the Honduran electorate is not really 
prepared for a squeaker.  Post fears that the likelihood of 
the losing party alleging fraud is very high, particularly if 
the National Party wins.  Ambassador plans to make clear to 
Zelaya in a meeting the evening of November 18 that the USG 
expects the Liberals not to charge fraud after the election 
without having the evidence to back up such claims.  Post 
will reevaluate the race after the campaign officially ends 
November 21 and see if the last big push by both candidates 
has swung the polls at all.  End Comment. 
Ford