US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN2031

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 002031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S REFERENDUM NOT QUITE ON THE RIGHT TRACK? 
 
REF: A) YEREVAN 1994 B) YEREVAN 1993 
 
Classified By: CDA A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) While Armenia's leaders state they are committed to 
running a clean referendum on November 27, some recent 
actions call this into question.  The GOAM has decided to 
permit no international observers except those from the 
Council of Europe and it is pulling out all the stops to 
promote a "yes" vote, including requiring teachers and other 
government employees to use official resources to get out the 
vote.  While we watch these developments with concern, we are 
not yet entirely ready to write off Armenia's prospects to do 
the right thing in the upcoming constitutional referendum. 
End Summary. 
 
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INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS NEED NOT APPLY 
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2. (C) With the exception of a limited number of Council of 
Europe observers that National Assembly Speaker Baghdasarian 
invited earlier this year, the GOAM has declined to invite 
OSCE observers despite personal appeals by numerous 
senior-level, member-state officials and Congressman Hastings 
(ref A).  While local Armenian NGOs have been able to 
register as observers, the lack of what the Armenian public 
perceives as generally impartial, international observers 
will seriously undermine any GOAM attempt to portray the 
upcoming referendum as fully free and fair.  NDI and IFES, 
both of whom routinely monitor local and other elections in 
Armenia, have both failed to garner authorization to monitor 
the November 27 referendum. 
 
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MINISTERS PUSH HARD FOR A "YES" VOTE 
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3. (C) Minister of Foreign Affairs Oskanian and Minister of 
Agriculture Lokian lobbied hard for the proposed constitution 
during a meeting with a group of 400 Armenian farmers that 
was heavily covered by Armenian media.  The ministers linked 
successful passage of the proposed constitutional amendments 
to a potential Millenium Challenge Corporation compact (which 
would be expected to include significant rural infrastructure 
projects).  Public officials have taken every opportunity to 
urge Armenians to vote "yes" in the upcoming November 27 
referendum. 
 
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OPPOSITION LOOKING TO TAKE CREDIT FOR APATHY 
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4. (C) After several months of dithering about whether to 
urge Armenians to vote "no" or to boycott the referendum, 
opposition leaders seemed to discover that they could boost 
their perceived popularity by claiming that each registered 
voter who does not show up on November 27 is actually one of 
their loyal supporters.  Now all the various opposition 
factions have moved to calling for a boycott.  Opposition 
think-tanker Shahnazarian told us in September that the only 
"logical" move was to call for a boycott since most voters 
wouldn't bother voting and that the opposition wasn't in a 
position to mobilize people to vote "no."  Shahnazarian also 
noted that potential fraud would be easier to detect if 
participation levels in the referendum were clearly too low 
to make the vote valid.  Self-annointed father of the new 
Armenian constitution and Deputy Speaker of the National 
Assembly Tigran Torosian has tried to limit the opportunities 
for the opposition to claim support if people didn't go to 
the polls in great numbers on the 27th.  Torosian recently 
pointed out that the opposition would try to claim the people 
who were indifferent to any election as their allies, 
"However, (the opposition needs) to be reminded that 45 
percent of the voters usually do not vote, so when they make 
their calculations in the end, they need to remove this 45 
percent from the number of voters that did not participate 
and not count them in favor of the opposition."  What 
Torosian failed to note in his remarks, however, was that if 
fewer than two-thirds of the electorate participates in the 
vote, then the referendum will fail. 
 
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COMMENT:  THERE'S STILL TIME TO RUN A CLEAN REFERENDUM 
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5. (C) Although the GOAM's promotion of the proposed package 
of amendments has gone well beyond the merely zealous (ref 
B), with verified accounts of public schoo teachers receiving 
instructions to not only vote, but to vote to approve the 
amendments, and with the GOAM sending (no-cost) text messages 
to all cellphone subscribers in Armenia to urge them to vote 
"yes," the GOAM still has the chance to run a clean 
referendum, were they to so choose.  By keeping international 
observers at bay, however, the GOAM appears to be setting the 
stage for an outcome that no one will be in a position to 
certify as "free and fair" even were it to be so. 
GODFREY