US embassy cable - 05KATHMANDU2519

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 002519 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PHUM, NP 
SUBJECT:  UML PLANS NOVEMBER 19 DEMONSTRATION IN WEST 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 2492 
 
     B. KATHMANDU 2517 
 
Classified By: Amb. James F. Moriarty, Reason 1.4 (b/d) 
 
Government Plans to Prevent CPN-UML Demonstration in West? 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
1. (C)  The November 18 newspapers front-paged that zonal and 
regional administrators were attempting to mobilize local 
government officials to prevent CPN-UML's demonstration 
planned for November 19 in Butwal.  CPN-UML General Secretary 
MK Nepal had told the Ambassador November 15 that the Butwal 
demonstration would be the first of five demonstrations 
planned for his party (Ref A).  He said that he hoped to have 
50,000 participants at each, although party leaders are 
currently telling the press that they expected 100,000 people 
to gather.  According to Kashi Nath Adhikari, CPN-UML Central 
Committee Member, the government has started obstructing the 
main roads leading to Butwal.  Jhalanath Khanal, another 
Central Committee member, told Emboff that CPN-UML had 
organized 900 buses in the Lumbini Zone to bring party 
workers and supporters to Butwal.  Khanal asserted that the 
District Administration Office (DAO) planned to declare 
Butwal as a restricted area to prevent any public 
demonstration.  Adhikari stated that, despite government 
efforts to prevent the demonstration, party members would try 
to reach Butwal for the meeting or, if unable to do so, find 
other alternatives to hold a peaceful and non-violent mass 
demonstration. 
 
Government Denies Trying to Stop Demonstration 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (C)  Assistant Chief District Officer (CDO) Rudranath 
Basyal of Rupandehi District (where Butwal is located), 
however, told us that the DAO did not plan to declare 
restricted areas in Butwal and had not blocked any roads. 
Birendri Chhetri, Chairman of the District Development 
Committee of Rupandehi District, also denied that the DAO 
would obstruct the mass demonstration.  He added that UML 
leaders had met with the district officials to inform the 
CDO's office that the demonstration would be peaceful, and 
the CDO's office had taken that positively. 
 
Role of the Maoists? 
-------------------- 
 
3. (C)  Khanal also said that the government was spreading 
rumors that the Maoists would be involved and warning that 
"untoward incidents might take place."  Assistant CDO Basyal 
commented separately that he had heard that the Maoists had 
been going door to door in the villages requesting that each 
household send at least one family member to take part in the 
demonstration.  He added, however, that he had no hard 
evidence about this rumor.  Chhetri also mentioned that 
"Maoists with guns" were going from village to village 
"informing" people that one member from each household should 
attend the demonstration.  In addition, the Maoists were 
requesting donations to fund the demonstration. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (C)  The figure of 100,000 participants is highly 
improbable, and even MK Nepal's estimate of 50,000 was 
unlikely in the most optimal scenario.  Any meeting that 
occurs is likely to be smaller.  We believe that the Maoists 
would have to cooperate to allow the transportation of so 
many people for a demonstration of this size to occur. 
MORIARTY