US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1975

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PHUM, CE, Elections, Political Parties, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PM RAJAPAKSE WINS PRESIDENCY IN CLOSE 
ELECTION 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1971 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASONS 1.4(b) and (d 
) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. On November 18, Election Commissioner Dayananada 
Dissanayake announced that Prime Minister and Sri Lanka 
Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse won Sri 
Lanka's November 17 presidential election with a mere 50.3 
percent of the total vote.  The deciding factor in the 
election was a Tamil boycott of the polls in the north and 
east, enforced by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE).  The Election Commissioner apparently did not grant a 
request by the campaign of United National Party (UNP) 
candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe for repolling in two northern 
districts.  Our public statement must address the LTTE's 
tactics.  Please see para 5 for proposed text.  End summary. 
 
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ELECTION RESULTS 
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2. (U) Polling in Sri Lanka's presidential election came to a 
close peacefully on November 17 with minimal reports of 
violence and no curfew imposed (Reftel).  At 1:30pm local 
time November 18, Election Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake 
announced that Prime Minister and Sri Lanka Freedom Party 
(SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse won, defeating opposition 
candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe with a mere 50.2 percent of 
the total vote, besting the United National Party (UNP) 
candidate's total by only 180,000 votes.  Dissanayake said 
that 9.7 million out of 13.3 million eligible voters 
participated in the election.  (Note: UNP sources told us 
that they filed a request for re-polling in the north and 
east, but Dissanayake made no reference to this in his public 
statement.  End note.)  Rajapakse, in his acceptance speech, 
stressed the peace process and economic development as his 
key priorities upon assuming office.  Rumors are that he will 
be sworn in around 6pm local time November 18, which, 
coincidentally, is his sixtieth birthday. 
 
3. (SBU) Also on November 18, local election monitoring group 
People's Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL) 
released a statement noting that in southern and central Sri 
Lanka, the election was "the best conducted in recent past, 
without major incidents of violence or electoral malpractice 
being reported."  However, PAFFREL's statement added that in 
the North and the East, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
(LTTE) campaign of voter intimidation disenfranchised Tamils 
and compromised democratic processes.  In addition, our EU 
and UK contacts told us that the EU election monitors will 
not make public statements as yet because they are still 
cataloguing election irregularities, including reported 
purges of Tamil names from election roll sheets. 
 
4. (C) Rajapakse's advisor Kanchana Ratwatte told polcouns in 
a November 18 phone conversation that his Sri Lanka Freedom 
Party's (SLFP's) allies, the Marxist, Sinhalese nationalist 
Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP) and the Buddhist monk-based 
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), are not keen on holding 
parliamentary elections immediately but said that a decision 
would be made within the next few days.  Ratwatte also said 
that a new Cabinet would be appointed immediately, with the 
post of Prime Minister going to either an "alliance" (i.e., 
JVP) partner or Ports Minister and fellow southerner Mangala 
Samaraweera as contenders on the short-list. 
 
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PROPOSED USG RESPONSE 
---------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The Ambassador is meeting with the head EU election 
monitor later this evening, and we have been told by the UK 
High Commission here that the EU does not intend to release a 
statement on the election until the EU monitoring mission 
does so.  Embassy recommends that the Department Spokesman 
issue the following statement.  Begin text: 
 
The United States congratulates Mahinda Rajapakse on his 
victory in the November 17 presidential election and commends 
those citizens of Sri Lanka who peacefully exercised their 
democratic rights and responsibilities.  Among the many 
significant and immediate challenges confronting the new 
President will be the need to strengthen the Ceasefire 
Agreement 
and bring renewed vigor to the peace process so that progress 
may be made towards a negotiated solution that meets the 
aspirations of all Sri Lankans.  The United States looks 
forward to working with the new President on these important 
topics and remains committed to maintaining the historically 
close ties between our two countries. 
 
The United States deeply regrets that Tamil voters in the 
northern and eastern parts of the island did not vote in 
significant numbers due to a clear campaign of intimidation 
by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).  As a result, 
a significant portion of Sri Lanka's people were deprived of 
the opportunity to make their views known. The United States 
condemns this LTTE interference in the democratic process in 
the strongest possible terms. 
End text. 
 
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COMMENT: PRABHAKARAN AS KINGMAKER? 
----------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) As most interlocutors had predicted, the election was 
indeed close, at least in the southern and central areas. 
The real wildcard was the LTTE, with leader Vellupillai 
Prabhakaran demanding that Tamils in the north and east 
boycott the polls.  Most analysts believe that the vast 
majority of Tamils in those areas would have voted for 
Wickremesinghe, a moderate with a proven track record in 
terms of implementing the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA). 
Through the boycott, the LTTE demonstrated the breadth of its 
influence, and in essence threw the election in favor of 
Rajapakse, the candidate many viewed as a hardliner on the 
ethnic issue. 
LUNSTEAD