US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA3417

S E C R E T OTTAWA 003417 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: MARR, MOPS, PREL, AF, NL, CA 
SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: CANADA UNABLE TO BOOST 
DUTCH DEPLOYMENT 
 
REF: THE HAGUE 3100 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: POL M/C Brian Flora.  Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.(S) National Defence (DND) Director of NATO Policy Col. 
Neil Anderson (please protect) informed polmiloff on November 
16 that Canada would not/not be able to accommodate a Dutch 
request for 100 troops to support the Dutch deployment to 
Oruzgan under ISAF Stage III.  He volunteered that the 
negative response was conveyed via "mil/mil channels"-- the 
same channel in which the request was made -- following a CF 
internal assessment.  Anderson added that discussions with 
the Dutch military were continuing, to determine if there are 
other ways (NFI) in which Canada could lend support. 
 
2. (S) Anderson said that key factors in Canada's decision 
were the likely negative impact on CF availability for 
potential "other" operations (above and beyond its February 
2006 commitment to ISAF III) and cost. DND apparently has 
reached the "outer limits" of the funding for Afghanistan 
that was authorized by Cabinet earlier this year, he said. 
 
3. (S) COMMENT:  The possibility that the minority Liberal 
government will be brought down by the end of November and 
elections called for early 2006 is almost unavoidable. 
Though unlikely to affect Canada's current military 
commitments in Afghanistan, the domestic political dynamic is 
unpredictable and Canada's professional military are 
sensitive to becoming "a factor," even incidentally, in the 
governing party's all-out effort to secure a parliamentary 
majority in the next election.  A retired Canadian military 
officer who keeps close tabs on defense issues recently 
shared his views on the Defense Minister's and Chief of 
Defence Staff's ongoing public diplomacy campaigns which 
underscore the possibility of Canadian casualties in 
Kandahar.  While praising their pro-active approach, our 
contact had reservations about the effectiveness of the 
effort if/when casualties are incurred during current and 
planned deployments in southern Afghanistan, given the 
public's aversion to military (vs. "peacekeeping") 
operations.  END COMMENT. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
WILKINS