US embassy cable - 05SANTIAGO2368

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 002368 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SOCI, EAID, CI, PE 
SUBJECT: CHILE'S ELECTIONS: FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE 
UNEVENTFUL; MOST RECENT POLL SHOWS BACHELET SLIPPING 
 
REF: SANTIAGO 2323 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Emi L. Yamauchi.  Reasons: 1.4 ( 
b and d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: Chile's four presidential candidates 
participated in an uneventful and final televised debate on 
November 17, one day after the release of a poll showing that 
support for Concertacion candidate and front-runner Michelle 
Bachelet has dropped below 40 percent.  National Renewal (RN) 
candidate Sebastian Pinera's stock continues to rise as he 
surpassed Independent Democratic Union's (UDI) Joaquin Lavin 
in the polls for the first time.  While Bachelet continues to 
out-poll the others, she is unlikely to win more than 50 
percent of the vote during the election on December 11.  With 
a run-off now likely, the question on most Chileans' minds is 
whether Pinera or Lavin will be Bachelet's opponent on 
January 15, and whether the combined votes from the Right 
will be enough to win.  End summary. 
 
The Final Debate 
---------------- 
 
2. (U) The second and final nationally-televised presidential 
debate on November 17 was largely uneventful and (at least in 
the aftermath) appears to have had little impact on voters' 
minds.  According to a telephonic Benchmark poll following 
the debate, only nine percent of the 400-plus individuals 
polled in the greater Santiago area said they had changed 
their minds after watching the debate.  Most observers agreed 
there were no winners or losers.  Concertacion's Bachelet 
defended the Lagos Administration's policies and promised 
more of the same, while the RN's Pinera and UDI's Lavin each 
tried to portray himself as the candidate who is most capable 
of uniting the right and defeating Bachelet in a second 
round.  The four candidates offered largely canned, safe and 
(with the exception of "Together We Can" candidate Hirsch) 
similar responses to eight questions, two of which touched on 
international issues (Peru and free trade agreements) and six 
on domestic issues (e.g. inequality, unemployment, same-sex 
marriage). 
 
The Poll 
-------- 
 
3. (U) The final debate took place one day after Chile's 
respected Center of Public Studies (CEP) released the results 
of its third nationwide poll on the elections.  Its results, 
mostly tracking with those contained in a recent "El 
Mercurio" poll (reftel), support three general trends: 
support for Bachelet has dropped; support for Pinera has 
increased; and support for Lavin has declined.  The poll also 
contained two firsts: Pinera surpassing Lavin as the top 
vote-getter on the Right (23 to 18 percent), and the combined 
vote of the candidates on the Right (41 percent) eclipsing 
that of Bachelet (39 percent). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
4. (C) The results of the latest CEP poll reaffirm Embassy's 
view that Bachelet is likely to win less than 50 percent on 
December 11 and a run-off election of the top two vote 
getters on January 15 will be required.  If Pinera's stock 
continues to rise and he moves on to a second round against 
Bachelet, his ability to challenge Bachelet for some centrist 
Christian Democrat voters could make for an interesting 
run-off, but only if UDI throws its support to him. 
KELLY