US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8702

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008702 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
FROM APP ALEXANDRIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Parliamentary Elections, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT ELECTIONS ROUND 2:  THE VIEW FROM ALEXANDRIA 
 
Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect accordingly. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Alexandria governorate, home to Egypt,s 
second largest city, is among those voting in the second 
round of parliamentary polls November 20.   Significant 
portions of the coastal city are considered strongholds of 
the Muslim Brotherhood.  The ruling National Democratic Party 
did not fare well in the 2000 cycle, winning just six of 
twenty-two possible seats (though nine of the "independent" 
victors returned to NDP ranks shortly following the 2000 
election).  With a number of well-financed and well organized 
candidates, the NDP is betting it will fare better this time 
around.  As elsewhere in Egypt, the MB appears the most 
effective opposition, with the recognized opposition parties 
coalition generally ineffective in generating popular 
enthusiasm as an alternative to the NDP or MB messages.  Of 
particular interest are races in the Montaza and Raml 
districts, both MB strongholds, and a race in the Ghorbal 
district, where Coptic-Islamist tensions remain high in the 
aftermath of sectarian riots during Ramadan.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) Alexandrians join voters from seven other Egyptian 
governorates (Beheira, Gharbiyya, Qalyoubia, Fayyoum, Qena, 
Suez, and Ismailia) in the second round of parliamentary 
elections November 20.  Once the home of a thriving 
expatriate community scarcely connected to the affairs of 
Cairo, Alexandria is known for an independent political 
streak that has in recent years manifested itself in 
increasingly strong support for the Muslim Brotherhood.  NDP 
nominees fared poorly in Alexandria in the 2000 election 
cycle (winning just six of twenty-two possible seats), though 
nine of the victorious independents in that election 
subsequently joined the parliament as NDP representatives. 
This year, the election cycle has been energized by several 
cases of NDP infighting and Coptic-Muslim riots. 
 
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NDP Attempts to Avoid Repeat of 2000 Disappointment 
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3.  (SBU)  Of the ruling NDP,s fifteen current deputies from 
Alexandria (out of 22 total seats), the party re-nominated 
just eight.  A number of those overlooked by the NDP have 
decided to run anyway, as independents.  NDP Alexandria 
Chairman Said Dakkak told Alexandria Principal Officer that 
the NDP nomination process for this election cycle was driven 
by the party-wide reform process begun in 2002 and led by 
Gamal Mubarak.  The party sought strong (and/or 
well-financed) candidates for each of the twenty-two seats 
available, which meant in some cases casting off sitting 
MP's.  The situation presents a number of cases whereby 
current and former NDP members may cancel each other's votes, 
potentially leaving the field to independents or the MB. 
 
4.  (SBU) One such example is in the Montaza district, where 
the NDP nominated University of Alexandria President (and 
former Chairman of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs 
Committee) Mohammad Abdellah instead of the party,s current 
holder of the seat, MP Ali Seif, a prominent businessman. 
Seif declined to withdraw from the election and has brought 
his considerable resources to bear as an independent 
candidate.  The district, which covers the eastern sector of 
the city including sprawling suburbs packed with low-income 
migrants from the countryside, is known as an MB stronghold 
(the current holder of the worker seat is an independent 
affiliated with the MB).  Abdellah, who is a major figure in 
Alexandria and within the NDP, is rumored to have brokered a 
deal with the MB to divide the Professional and Worker seats 
in the district again between the NDP and MB (the MB declined 
to run a candidate for the Professional seat).  But the 
battle between Seif and Abdellah opens the way for a possible 
victory of two MB "Worker" candidates.  Given the stakes 
involved in this race, pitting an NDP heavyweight against the 
spurned, and well-financed current holder of the seat, with 
the possibility of the MB picking up both seats, Muntaza will 
be an important result to watch. 
 
5. (SBU)  Elsewhere, the NDP has nominated a number of 
wealthy businessmen capable of self financing their own (and 
their "worker" co-nominees') campaigns, including Khalid Abu 
Ismael, Chairman of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of 
Commerce, in Raml;  Mohammad Mosilhi, a shipping magnate, in 
Bab Sharq; and Khalid Abhed Khairy, Chairman of a large 
family business concern and son of the former NDP Chairman of 
Alexandria, in Attarine.   Abu Ismael has battled allegations 
he is ineligible to win a seat in the heavily-MB Raml 
district by virtue of a rumored Palestinian-origin father 
(rumors he has denied); while Khairy has had to beat back 
allegations he is beholden to Israel due to one of his family 
businesses representing an Israeli shipping line. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Overall, however, the NDP appears well organized 
and well financed and has realistic hopes of exceeding its 
disappointing 2000 result.  Alexandria PO spoke with one NDP 
campaign worker designated as the "youth chairman" of the 
Sidi Gaber district.  Her role has been to organize campaign 
activities  in sporting establishments, youth clubs and other 
youth-oriented organizations.  She described an apparently 
seamless organization of neighborhood, district and 
governorate reporting lines that tie her and her colleagues 
into the NDP leadership headed by Dakkak.  In contrast, a 
Wafd candidate, who later withdrew from contention, told 
Alexandria PO he received no organizational or monetary 
support from the Wafd party for his campaign, but was told by 
party leaders that resources had been exhausted on the 
presidential campaign of Noman Gomaa.  In an election-eve 
rally for campaign workers in Alexandria November 16 and 
broadcast on Dream TV, Gamal Mubarak urged party members to 
engage voters with a message that the NDP is the only party 
with a program for job growth and improved living standards, 
in contrast to the party of "darkness" (presumably the MB) 
and independents. 
 
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Casting a Vote for ) or Against -- Sectarian Tension 
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7.  (SBU) October's sectarian riots in Alexandria have been 
linked to the election campaign, and specifically to the 
candidacy of current (independent) MP Mohammad Badrasheeny 
for helping to stoke the Muslim riots outside St. George,s 
Coptic Church in the Muharram Bey district.  Badrasheeny 
holds the Worker seat of the adjacent Ghorbal district and is 
alleged to have encouraged the disturbances as a means of 
appealing to Islamist-inclined voters at the expense of his 
NDP (and Coptic) opponent, Maher Khella.  Khella withdrew his 
name from the election after the riots began, but the NDP 
rejected the withdrawal.  The NDP's Dakkak told Alexandria PO 
that the district has been trending MB over the years.  The 
results of this race, if reported fairly, may be an important 
indication of the public's feelings regarding the strife.  A 
strong victory for Badrasheeny might indicate acceptance of 
his alleged activities; while a victory for Khella would 
indicate strong community rejection of them, given Ghorbal is 
majority Muslim. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (SBU)  The NDP and defacto NDP independents will almost be 
the strongest performers on November 20, although the NDP's 
flat performance in the first stage of elections could affect 
its momentum in Alexandria.  The MB, which currently holds 
four seats through nominal independents in Alexandria, has 
already doubled its representation in the People's Assembly 
with its strong showing in the first stage, and seems poised 
to increase its position in the Alexandria region as well. 
Left behind, as elsewhere, will likely be "established" 
opposition parties like the Wafd, Tagammu and Nasserists, who 
appear almost totally sidelined in Alexandria.  End comment. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE