US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8701

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 008701 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Elections, Parliamentary Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: RESULTS OFFICIAL FOR THE FIRST STAGE OF 
PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CAIRO 8663 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin, for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The Chairman of the Parliamentary Elections Commission 
has formally announced the results of the first of three 
stages of Egypt's People's Assembly elections.  The numbers 
track with "unofficial" results in circulation yesterday 
(reftel), including an acknowledged win of 34 seats for the 
MB, doubling their representation in only the first round.  A 
senior NDP contact described the results so far as a "serious 
blow" to reformers in the party and admitted they had been 
taken by surprise by the MB's electoral strength.  One of 
Cairo's most seasoned observers of the MB predicted that 
their run in the next two rounds would be equally strong, 
bringing their presence to as many as 90 seats in the 444 
seat assembly.  End summary. 
 
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Official Results 
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2. (SBU) Minister of Justice Mahmoud Aboul Leil, who is 
serving as Chairman of the Parliamentary Elections 
Commission, announced the official results of the first stage 
of People's Assembly elections at a press conference on the 
afternoon of November 17. 
 
3. (SBU) The numbers announced by Aboul Leil tracked with the 
figures we presented in ref A, although 46 "NDP renegades," 
members of the party who ran successfully as independents 
after they failed to get the party's nomination, have already 
returned to the fold, and are now being counted in the NDP's 
winners' column. 
 
4. (U) Aboul Leil confirmed the following results, of 164 PA 
seats at stake in the first round: 
 
NDP........................114 (69.7 percent) 
 
MB..........................34 (20.7 percent) 
 
Independents.................8 (4.8 percent) 
 
Opposition parties...........8 (4.8 percent) 
 
5. (SBU) In a brief question and answer session that 
followed, Aboul Leil reaffirmed the Electoral Commission's 
commitment to allow domestic civil society monitors to 
oversee the process.  He said that the Commission had taken 
note of numerous complaints and comments about the process 
and asserted that they would be duly investigated and acted 
upon as appropriate. 
 
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NDP Vexed by MB Strength 
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6. (C) Karim Haggag, a principal aide to Gamal Mubarak, told 
ECPO Counselor that the results of the first stage had been 
"a serious blow to reformers" in the NDP.  The defeat of 
Gamal confidante Hossam Badrawi was an especially bitter pill 
to swallow, he confided.   On the MB's strong performance, 
already doubling their representation in parliament in only 
the first of three stages, Haggag admitted the NDP had been 
caught by surprise.  The NDP had done extensive polling in 
canvassing across the country, he noted, but their research 
had completely failed to gauge the extent of MB support. 
 
7. (C) Mohammed Salah, Cairo bureau chief of the regional 
daily Al-Hayat, known for his precient analyses and good 
contacts with the MB, told poloff that the Brothers 
themselves were "astonished" by their performance.  He 
anticipated that the MB will fare equally well in the next 
two rounds, possibly reaching as many as 90 seats in the 444 
seat People's Assembly.  He downplayed the possibility that 
the GOE might crackdown on the relatively open atmosphere of 
the first round to curb MB gains (as the GOE did in 2000), 
noting that the overall political atmosphere was no longer 
conducive to iron-fisted tactics. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE