US embassy cable - 05NAIROBI4783

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004783 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2025 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINS, PHUM, KDEM, KE, Referendum 
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM: LAST DAYS AND LAST DITCH EFFORTS 
 
REF: NAIROBI 4143 
 
Classified By: A/Political Counselor Lisa Peterson for reasons 1.4 (b,d 
) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  In the waning days of the referendum 
campaign ahead of the vote on November 21, the pro-draft 
("Yes" or Banana) team has resorted to measures of 
questionable democratic integrity to ensure a win, including 
shutting down an opposition radio station and "suggesting" 
that civil servants vote "Yes."  Troubled by developments, 
the Electoral Commission has expressed concerns over the 
integrity of the process, while the political maneuvering and 
campaigning continue unabated.  The highly emotionally 
charged nature of the constitutional review, and the lengths 
to which the "Yes" team has gone to ensure a victory, suggest 
that whatever the result, the vote will not be the end of the 
process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
DESPERATE MEASURES? 
------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On November 16, Communication Commission of Kenya 
(CCK) officials delivered a letter to KASS FM, a Kalenjin 
vernacular radio station, citing complaints about the nature 
of the station's broadcasts, and shut down the organization 
for one week.  KASS, as well as other media, immediately 
cried fowl, complaining bitterly that the move was an 
obviously political one to silence what is regarded as an 
Orange ("No" campaign) radio station.  Politicians from the 
affected area joined the outcry, noting that their 
constituents have few other sources for news and information 
in their own language.  The closure, which was front page 
news the following day, sparked violence of its own.  The 
Daily Nation reported on November 17 that three people were 
seriously injured as a result of a fight in which some 
accused "Yes" supporters of instigating the station's shut 
down.  According to government spokesman Alfred Mutua, KASS 
had called for violent agitation, a claim the CCK will 
investigate. 
 
3.  (SBU) On November 17, the Kenya Times reported that head 
of the civil service, Ambassador Francis Muthaura "ordered" 
all civil servants to vote yes.  Muthaura was quoted as 
having said at a Public Service Commission event that the 
proposed draft constitution would benefit civil servants and 
therefore "there is no reason for them to remain neutral." 
In October, some sectors of the civil service had been 
promised pay raises in one of the first of the Banana 
giveaways (reftel). 
 
ELECTORAL COMMISSION UNCOMFORTABLE 
---------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Samuel Kivuitu, Chairman of the Electoral Commission 
of Kenya, the organization responsible for running the 
referendum, shared with a diplomatic colleague some of his 
serious concerns about the upcoming vote.  Kivuitu expressed 
skepticism about the Kenya Police Service, charged with 
ensuring the referendum takes place peacefully.  He 
characterized the organization as biased and unprofessional 
and lamented that there would be better security coverage in 
"Yes" strongholds than in "No".  Nonetheless, the Chairman 
noted that he had requested the deployment of additional 
police officers on polling day, but the government had not 
responded to him.  Kivuitu was generally worried about the 
disparity between areas that were firmly Banana or Orange, 
particularly that electoral officials in these highly 
polarized areas were not neutral.  Anticipating vote fraud, 
he speculated that there would be many dead people voting. 
He remarked that he expected a 60 percent voter turnout (as 
opposed to 90 percent reflected in a recent opinion poll, the 
results of which were not publicly released) which raised his 
concern over excess ballot papers, as the ECK had ordered 
based on 100 percent participation.  Kivuitu stated that he 
was worried about intimidation of ECK officials, and that he 
had himself received a number of threats already. 
 
UNTIL THE LAST MOMENT 
--------------------- 
 
5.  (C) There has been no let up in the political maneuvering 
in the last few days before the vote.  Controversial Nairobi 
Member of Parliament, David Mwenje, who had earlier defected 
from the "Yes" side to the "No", and was later arrested for 
disrupting a meeting held by his former team, announced on 
November 16 that he had switched sides again.  (NOTE: Mwenje 
unashamedly confessed to Poloff in September that he had 
accepted 100,000 shillings from the Banana team and then left 
for Orange.  Given Mwenje's history of opportunistically 
changing sides, it is unclear whether his defection will 
convince his constituents to alter their voting plans.  END 
NOTE.) 
 
6.  (C) While rumors had circulated that an Orange rally 
scheduled for Nyayo Stadium had been canceled as it coincided 
with another event at the same venue (and a Banana rally at a 
nearby Nairobi location), the two end-of-campaign events will 
be held, simultaneously and in close proximity to each other, 
on Saturday, November 19.  Police have said they will be 
present in large numbers and are prepared to ensure the day 
is peaceful.  The following day, 7:00 A.M. marks the official 
end of the campaign period: 24 hours before polls open. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT: Having already demonstrated the lengths to 
which it is willing to go to win approval for the draft 
constitution, the "Yes" team, if it loses, seems unlikely to 
graciously accept defeat and will use its considerable 
resources to fend off suggestions that it has suffered a vote 
of no confidence.  The "No" team, if it is not successful, 
will find plenty of fuel to argue against the credibility of 
the vote.  The ECK's private lack of confidence in the 
polling procedure is worrisome and could portend a prolonged 
and heated debate well after November 21.  END COMMENT. 
 
ROWE