US embassy cable - 05HARARE1578

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001578 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: ASEC, PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI EMERGING ON TOP IN MATABELELAND 
 
REF: A. REF A: HARARE 001560 
     B. REF B: HARARE 001537 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Eric T. Schultz under Section 1 
.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) MDC President Tsvangirai,s successful November 13 
rally in Bulawayo - and the "pro-Senate" faction's poor 
showings in contrast - confirmed the ascendancy of the 
Tsvangirai faction in Matabeleland, according to MDC and 
 
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civil society figures in Bulawayo.  A former moderator in the 
MDC dispute, MDC MP for Bulawayo Thokozani Khupe, reported 
that talks were dead and that both sides were now waiting for 
election day.  Most Tsvangirai supporters expect the de facto 
separation will lead to conclusive divorce by next year's 
scheduled Party Congress, leaving the party stronger and 
better equipped to confront the regime.  End Summary. 
 
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Dueling Rallies Leave Tsvangirai on Top 
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2.  (C) Khupe told poloff on November 15 that several 
thousand supporters attended Tsvangirai,s rally in Bulawayo 
two days earlier, demonstrating his popularity in the 
supposed heartland of pro-participation sentiment.  (N.B. AFP 
estimated the crowd at 8,000-10,000 people.)  In a separate 
meeting on November 16, MDC National Executive Council member 
for Bulawayo Getrude Mtombeni told poloff, that unusual for 
preelection rallies, many of the attendees were older people, 
adding their socially significant voices to the anti-Senate 
cry. 
 
3.  (C) In addition to the Sunday rally, Khupe said 
Tsvangirai had walked through many parts of Bulawayo where he 
 
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was well-received by residents who have never seen local 
politicians Ncube and Sibanda walking amongst them. 
Suggesting that Tsvangirai,s popularity also stretches to 
rural Matabeleland, a civil society leader in Lupane told 
poloff on November 16 that impromptu roadside stops by the 
MDC president attracted scores of well wishers. 
 
4.  (C) In contrast, Khupe ) probably the most prominent 
Ndebele MP in Tsvangirai,s camp ) and Mtombeni reported 
that rallies held by participation faction leaders Ncube and 
Sibanda were being attending by only handfuls of people. 
Khupe added that Sibanda was heckled at one rally in Bulawayo 
and forced to cut his speech short.  Ncube and Sibanda were 
so embarrassed by the low turnout, according to Khupe, that 
they were no longer campaigning.  Instead, they had begun to 
send only second string, pro-Senate MPs from Matabeleland, 
such as Abednico Bhebhe and Milton Gwetu, to rallies. 
 
5.  (C) Khupe said the popularity of Tsvangirai,s boycott 
call and poor turnout at pro-participation rallies had 
prompted many would-be Senators to reconsider their 
candidacy, but that the pro-Senate leadership was pressing 
them to remain in the race.  In addition, some MDC MPs, such 
as Binga,s Joel Gabbuza, had directly pressured Senate 
candidates in their districts to withdraw, according to 
Khupe, fearing that a failed candidacy would undermine their 
own support.  Mtombeni added that the MDC candidates might 
have to withdraw by default, since they might not be able to 
find enough supporters to act as polling agents. 
 
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Toward a Leaner, Meaner MDC? 
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6.  (C) Khupe reported that efforts to mediate the crisis 
failed when Ncube, Gift Chimanikire, and Fletcher Dulini 
Ncube refused to meet with her and three other MDC notables 
deployed by the National Council to moderate the crisis (ref 
B).  Instead, both sides were now waiting for the results of 
the Senate election.  Khupe anticipated that none of the MDC 
Senatorial candidates would win in Matabeleland, solidifying 
Tsvangirai,s standing within the party.  Even 
 
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pro-participation MP Bhebhe conceded to poloff on November 14 
that none of the candidates in Bulawayo were likely to win 
and that support in the rural areas was thin.  Civil society 
leaders attending a November 15 and 16 conference hosted by 
NGO Bulawayo Agenda agreed that boycott calls and voter 
apathy would result in a low turnout among the Ndebele, 
although some predicted as many seven of Matabeleland's 15 
opposition candidates could still win. 
 
7.  (C) A poor showing on election day would likely prompt 
Ncube to resign and seal Sibanda,s fate ahead of the party 
Congress, according to Khupe.  The shedding of his detractors 
would give Tsvangirai undisputed control of the party and a 
freer hand in adopting a more confrontational strategy toward 
the Mugabe regime.  According to Khupe, the success of recent 
protests by the National Constitutional Assembly and the 
Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ref A) had demonstrated 
the people,s desire to confront the regime.  Echoing others 
in the ascendant camp, Khupe emphasized that the MDC would 
now be more attuned to the grassroots and more eager to 
confront the government; she proclaimed &the enthusiasm of 
1999 has returned.8 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C) Despite the presence of many prominent Ndebele in the 
pro-Senate camp, grassroots support for participation in 
Matabeleland appears to be lacking.  Accordingly, the 
argument advanced by the Ncube faction has changed from one 
of participation in the name of defending MDC strongholds, to 
one of attacking Tsvangirai for violations of the party 
constitution, a technical argument that appears not to 
resonate with the party,s base and of which they are 
themselves likely guilty.  Unfortunately, this tactical 
change coincides with increasingly personal attacks by 
leadership on both sides, but especially by the Ncube 
faction, which makes a &divorce8 all but inevitable and 
likely messy.  In that regard, we have already seen rising 
intra-party violence, such as a brawl the night before 
Tsvangirai,s Bulawayo rally that resulted in one pro-boycott 
 
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youth losing his eye.  Tsvangirai supporters have reiterated 
to emboffs that the door was open for a return of the 
pro-Senate figures, albeit in diminished status, but none 
were expected to return, suggesting to us that Ncube and 
company will be relegated to the political sidelines. 
SCHULTZ