US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8749

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008749 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ETRD, ECIN, AORC, BG, SL, NP, PK, ML, BU, IN, SAARC 
SUBJECT: OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS: GOI PROPOSES US OBSERVER 
STATUS AT SAARC 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (U) For SA: SEE ACTION REQUEST PARA 8. 
 
2.  (C) Summary: In a surprise development, the GOI has told 
us that it would welcome US participation as an Observer to 
SAARC.  At a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation 
(SAARC) Summit briefing on November 16, MEA Joint Secretary 
(SAARC) P.K. Kapur told PolCouns that both Prime Minister 
Singh and Foreign Secretary Saran support a closer US role in 
the regional body and have requested feedback on US interest. 
 Kapur was upbeat about the Summit, concluding that it had 
gone "better than expected."  He described the three most 
important outcomes of the Summit as the membership invitation 
to Afghanistan, the decision to offer China and Japan 
Observer status, and the group's shift from generating 
studies to supporting specific projects.  Highlighting the 
positive response to PM Singh's plenary speech at the Summit, 
Kapur hoped the region would make progress on GOI initiatives 
including a SAARC open skies agreement, a Regional Food Bank, 
a South Asian University and a Disaster Management Center. 
The offer for US Observer Status may be an attempt to balance 
Pakistan's request to include China, but it is a welcome 
opportunity to play a more prominent role in promoting US 
foreign policy goals for South Asian integration and reflect 
India's confidence in its relationship with the US.  End 
Summary. 
 
SAARC Opens Up: US, China, Japan and Afghanistan 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.  (C) MEA Joint Secretary (SAARC) P.K. Kapur suggested to 
PolCouns on November 16 that the GOI is interested in 
American participation as an Observer to SAARC.  Kapur 
commented that in recent GOI conversations about SAARC's 
widening boundaries, Prime Minister Singh was "very 
comfortable" and Foreign Secretary Saran was "quite positive" 
about the idea of US participation.  Although "India would 
not suggest it," the GOI would "welcome US interest in 
becoming an observer."  Kapur added that the debate over 
including China as an observer created a unique opportunity 
for India to suggest similar status for the US.  "If the US 
wants a closer association with SAARC anytime in the next ten 
years," he observed, "you should tell us now."  He requested 
feedback before the April 2006 Special Session of the 
Standing Committee of Foreign Secretaries, when the leaders 
will likely agree on a mechanism for Chinese and Japanese 
Observer status. 
 
4.  (C) Kapur indicated that India looked forward to 
Afghanistan's membership in SAARC and confirmed rumors that 
Nepal attempted to block the invitation, he assured, at 
Pakistan's request.  He commented the SAARC Chair would 
establish initial contact with Afghanistan and the process 
would proceed in accordance with the regulations laid out at 
the 1988 SAARC proceedings on new membership.  Kapur 
predicted that Afghanistan would accede to SAFTA, but was 
unsure how long it would take.  If "all goes smoothly," the 
Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs will be invited to the 
Council of Ministers mid-term meeting in 2006.  Otherwise, 
Afghanistan would begin membership at the 2007 SAARC Summit 
in New Delhi.  Kapur described Nepal's efforts to link 
inviting Afghanistan as a member to granting the Chinese 
observer status, but declined to comment on whether this was 
in support of Pakistan's agenda.  Since SAARC does not have 
any rules on admitting observers, the group decided to invite 
Afghanistan as a member at the Summit and formulate new 
guidelines for admitting observers at the Foreign 
Secretaries' meeting in April. 
 
SIPDIS 
Summit went "Better than Expected" 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (U) Kapur was upbeat about the results of the 
twice-rescheduled summit and prospects for January 2006 SAFTA 
implementation.  In addition to broadening membership, he 
listed SAARC's shift away from collecting information in 
favor of proposing specific projects as one of the Summit's 
biggest accomplishments.  After twenty years of "feasibility 
studies to look at proposals," he lauded the November 
meetings as the "first Summit creating specific projects." 
Kapur also emphasized the Summit Declaration agreement to 
"undertake trade facilitation measures, including transit 
among SAARC countries," a proposal that is also part of the 
SAFTA agreement.  He predicted that once Afghanistan becomes 
a member of SAARC, Pakistan will be obligated to allow 
transit of Indian goods heading to Afghanistan across its 
territory.  SAFTA, when implemented, will also enable transit 
of Bangladeshi goods across India to Nepal and Indian goods 
across Bangladeshi territory from West Bengal to Tripura. 
 
PM Singh's SAARC Vision 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Kapur commented on the positive reaction at the 
Summit to PM Singh's plenary speech, and was hopeful that his 
proposal for an Open Skies Agreement within the SAARC zone 
would be acceptable to all sides.  Each of the PM's 
proposals, including a South Asian University, a Regional 
Food Bank, and a South Asian Energy Dialogue had received 
widespread applause, he noted.  Highlighting a SAARC open 
skies agreement as "an important pronouncement," he predicted 
that it would take some time to "pick up steam."  India had 
not heard of any "expressions of resistance" or seen any 
negative attitudes in the press in other SAARC countries.  He 
expected that the Secretariat leadership will help 
consolidate the proposals and pass them along to Foreign 
Ministries, which will then disperse them to the relevant 
ministries for action. 
 
Comment: Opportunity Knocks 
--------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) If we want a closer association with SAARC, now is 
the time to move.  This is the first we have heard of any GOI 
interest in US involvement, but it reflects the dynamics of 
the current balancing act among South Asian powers.  In 
return for Afghanistan's membership, Pakistan wanted Chinese 
involvement.  Since India was not able to block this 
proposal, and since China has agreed to India's full 
participation at the East Asian Summit, New Delhi went along 
with Chinese and Japanese observer status.  This invitation 
may be India's attempt to devalue China's observer status, 
but it is nonetheless a welcome opportunity for the US to 
support South Asian Integration.  It also reflects India's 
growing trust in its strategic partnership with the US.  We 
should grab this offer with both hands. 
 
8.  (C) ACTION REQUEST:  We request an instruction from 
Washington conveying US appreciation for supporting our SAARC 
observer status. 
 
9.  (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) 
BLAKE