US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8741

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008741 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, KNNP, MNUC, IN, IR, India_Iran 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS PUSHES THE LEFT TO MOVE TOWARD COMPROMISE 
ON THE IRAN/IAEA ISSUE 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 8711 
     B. NEW DELHI 8681 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (U) On November 15, Communist leaders from the CPI(M) and 
CPI demanded that the GOI reverse its position and vote with 
Iran at the November 24 IAEA meeting or "face the 
consequences," but left the door open for face-saving 
"consultations," (ref A).  On November 16, the GOI took 
advantage of the opportunity and indicated its interest in 
reducing confrontation with the Left on the issue.  Congress 
President Sonia Gandhi met with CPI(M) politburo member 
Sitaram Yechury to arrange for a Congress/Left Front 
"coordination meeting" prior to the IAEA meeting to chalk out 
a common position, with November 22 the most likely date. 
Yechury confirmed to the "Indian Express" that the Communists 
were interested in an "out of court settlement."  Prime 
Minister Manmohan Singh also called his Sikh counterpart and 
veteran Communist leader Harkishan Singh Surjeet, whose 
daughter enjoyed an expensive bourgeois wedding on November 
16, purportedly to prevent a Congress/Left clash when 
Parliament reconvenes on November 23.  In an apparent sign 
that the Communists were reciprocating the Congress gestures, 
CPI(M) Parliamentary leaders provided a notice to the speaker 
on November 16 requesting only a short discussion of the 
Iran/IAEA issue when Parliament reconvenes.  The Left had the 
option of requesting a full floor debate followed by a vote, 
but backed down. 
 
2.  (U) While not revealing how the GOI would vote, the 
government moved to present a moderate and conciliatory tone. 
 Saying, "I will not go into a hypothetical situation, let us 
see whether there is going to be a vote or not," Foreign 
Secretary Saran maintained that India's "stance will be 
 
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determined by what are the contents of the resolution," while 
emphasizing that it "will be in accordance with the national 
interest."  GOI Parliamentary Affairs Minister Priya Ranjan 
Dasmunshi also backtracked from earlier confrontational 
statements condemning the Left for its "pressure tactics" and 
struck a conciliatory tone, emphasizing that the UPA would 
"not disappoint" any of its allies if the Iran issue came to 
a vote. 
 
3.  (U) The BJP has not been able to formulate a position on 
the IAEA vote, allowing the LF to play the role of the 
opposition on this issue.  In order to clear up the 
confusion, the BJP leadership plans to meet November 17 and 
determine its stance.  Early indications are that the BJP 
will also be critical, as BJP leader Vijay Kumar Malhotra 
took the UPA to task for not taking all political parties 
into confidence before the September 24 IAEA vote. 
 
4.  (C) In a November 17 conversation with PolCouns, PMO 
Media Adviser Sanjaya Baru expressed great anxiety about the 
prospect of an Iran vote at the IAEA, and underlined his hope 
that this might be avoided.  He remarked that "for the next 
four months India's politics will be about Kerala and West 
Bengal," and insisted that the Left parties have chosen to 
use foreign policy as a wedge issue to attack Congress in 
those states.  He acknowledged PolCoun's point that Iran is 
making the PM's job easier by behaving unreasonably vis-a-vis 
the EU-3.  Nonetheless, he warned, with the Left parties 
appealing to the Congress base in West Bengal and Kerala, the 
GOI will have to weigh the political consequences of another 
IAEA vote. 
 
Comment - Ambiguity for Now 
--------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) The Congress effort at reconciliation with the LF 
comes as no surprise.  Stung by the intense criticism 
engendered by the IAEA vote, Congress has no interest in 
further confrontation.  The Communists are interested in 
scoring easy political points, but not in a 
Communist/Congress battle on the floor of Parliament that 
would endanger UPA stability and benefit the BJP.  While both 
groups may be ready to step back from the brink, the issue 
could become explosive should the GOI again feel compelled to 
back an IAEA resolution that the LF deems to be too harsh on 
Iran and too conciliatory towards the US.  This would be 
especially true if the GOI takes such a move without first 
consulting the LF and its UPA allies.  Nothing would please 
the UPA more than if the US, EU, and others avoided a vote on 
November 24. 
BLAKE