US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1971

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001971 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  POLLING PEACEFUL; TIGER INTIMIDATION 
KEEPS NUMBERS DOWN IN NORTH AND EAST 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1965 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (SBU)  As of mid-day on November 17, voting in the 
presidential election was proceeding peacefully in the 
central and southern parts of the country.  Virtually no 
voters had crossed from territory controlled by the 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the north and east 
to cast their ballots, however, and turn-out among voters in 
Government-controlled areas bordering Tiger territory was 
reportedly sparse as well.  In the turbulent eastern district 
of Batticaloa suspected LTTE cadres had thrown grenades at 
empty polling stations the night of November 16, but no 
injuries were reported.  Secretary of Public Security, Law 
and Order Tilak Ranaviraja told the Ambassador after polls 
closed at 4:00 p.m. local time that there would be no curfew 
tonight.  The low-to-no turnout reported among Tamil voters 
in the north and east is expected will hurt severely the 
prospects of opposition United National Party (UNP) candidate 
Ranil Wickremesinghe.  End summary. 
 
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ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN, CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN FRONTS 
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2.  (SBU) On November 17, informal Embassy election 
monitoring teams deployed in various districts in western, 
central and southern regions of the country reported that 
polling in the presidential election appeared to be 
proceeding in a largely peaceful manner.  Embassy teams 
reported no evidence of illegal campaigning/canvassing in the 
vicinity of polling stations in these areas, although one 
team in the southeastern district of Moneragala was told by 
police of reports that some upcountry or "hill" Tamil voters 
had been assaulted by pro-Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) 
"thugs."  In the central district of Matale, on the other 
hand, long lines of voters, some of them with small children 
in tow, began queuing early in the morning to cast their 
ballot.  Turnout was also reportedly strong in Colombo and 
its environs.  Local election monitors at some polling 
stations in the north-central district of Anuradhapura 
reported almost an 80 percent turnout rate, while our Embassy 
team in the southern district of Galle reported a 75 percent 
turnout rate.  A seasoned political organizer in the 
battleground southwestern district of Kalutara, where voting 
lines were similarly long, told our team there that this 
election was the most closely contested race he had 
participated in in nearly two decades.  We have received no 
reports of a curfew being imposed,  Secretary of Public 
Security, Law and Order Tilak Ranaviraja told the Ambassador 
after polls closed at 4:00 p.m. local time that there would 
be no curfew tonight. 
 
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NO-SHOWS IN THE NORTH 
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3.  (SBU)  As feared (Reftel), the Liberation Tigers of Tamil 
Eelam (LTTE)-sponsored day of mourning reduced turnout among 
voters in LTTE-controlled areas to a mere dribble, and 
depressed voting levels among Tamils in government-controlled 
territory bordering these areas as well.  After the polls had 
been open for two hours at the checkpoint at Omanthai in the 
northern district of Vavuniya, not a single person had 
crossed over to vote, International Committee for the Red 
Cross (ICRC) personnel who staff the "no-man's land" between 
the two territories told our Embassy monitoring team 
(7,000-10,000 individuals make the crossing for various 
purposes on an average day).  Our team reported that 
approximately 20 buses provided by the government to ferry 
voters to cluster polling stations were sitting idle, while 
scores of election officials and monitors were milling about, 
waiting for something to do.  When our team returned to the 
checkpoint at 2:00 p.m. local time, local poll monitors 
reported that only 50 out of 128,000 registered voters had 
showed up, most of whom are believed to have previously 
resettled on the government-controlled side.  At a polling 
station midway between Mannar and Vavuniya no one from 
LTTE-controlled territory had crossed over to vote as of 
about 11:00 a.m., according to local poll monitors, but they 
had heard of a bus with six voters crossing over to another 
polling station elsewhere in Mannar.  Turnout in 
government-controlled territory in Mannar was also reportedly 
light, with reports of voters complaining of difficulty in 
obtaining transportation to the polling stations. 
 
4.  (SBU)  Voters were similarly scarce in the northern 
district of Jaffna.  At one polling station visited by our 
Embassy team there, a total of 10 voters had turned up as of 
noon.  Across the street from another polling station, our 
team observed a sign in Tamil exhorting the local population 
not to "compromise Eelam" by voting.  Local businesses in 
Jaffna town were largely shuttered on election day, in 
observance of the day of "mourning."  (In contrast, most 
businesses in Mannar town were open, although vehicular 
traffic was reportedly light.)  Local police told our team in 
Jaffna of reports of LTTE cadres visiting voters door-to-door 
the previous evening, warning them not to vote.  Local 
election monitors complained that suspected LTTE cadres were 
conducting surveillance of polling stations to intimidate 
voters.  If so, their campaign to discourage voting seemed to 
be working.  The head EU monitor in Jaffna estimated voter 
turnout in the district at 6 percent--including from the 
government-controlled areas.  The Government Agent put it 
even lower--at a mere 1.5 percent. 
 
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IN THE EAST, MUSLIMS VOTE; 
TAMILS GIVE IT A MISS 
--------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU)  The perennially turbulent eastern district of 
Batticaloa saw several empty polling stations attacked by 
grenades by suspected LTTE the night before elections. 
Violence on the day of the election itself, however, was 
limited (at least for Batticaloa); one bomb blast occurred 
mid-morning at a vote counting center in Batticaloa town, 
injuring one policeman.  Turnout among Muslim voters was 
good, although there were reports of fisticuffs between 
supporters of rival politicians in at least one location, but 
turnout among Tamil voters was reportedly only about 2 
percent at mid-day, according to Deputy Inspector General 
(DIG) of Police Rohan Abeywardena, and there were no reports 
of voters crossing over from the LTTE-controlled area.  Our 
Embassy team in the ethnically diverse eastern district of 
Trincomalee reported that turnout there was higher, including 
among Tamil voters, with the overall rate estimated at about 
60 percent by mid-day. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (SBU) We do not expect a winner to be announced until 
about mid-day November 18 (assuming the Election Commissioner 
does not call for re-polling in any area), and the outcome of 
voting in the south and central region, according to everyone 
we have talked to, remains too close to call.  (Note: 
According to constitutional lawyer Rohan Edirisinghe, the 
apparent LTTE interference in certain areas in the north and 
the east will not be enough for the Election Commissioner to 
declare the polls invalid since his mandate does not cover 
Tiger activities.  End note.)  Apart from the LTTE-mandated 
boycott in the north and east, the comparative lack of 
reports we have received so far of electoral 
violence/fraud/intimidation/tampering could make this one of 
freest and fairest elections seen in Sri Lanka in a long 
time.  As noted reftel, however, the low-to-no turnout from 
LTTE-controlled territories will benefit Sri Lanka Freedom 
Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse and severely hurt 
the prospects of Ranil Wickremesinghe, the pro-peace process 
opposition United National Party (UNP) candidate.  A source 
in Rajapakse's campaign contacted poloff just before polls 
closed to report the SLFP'ers were feeling very "confident"; 
a UNP MP the Ambassador had talked with a few hours before 
sounded more restrained--but not disconsolate. 
LUNSTEAD