US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV6532

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 006532 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, IS, ELECTIONS 2006, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: SHARON, PERETZ TENTATIVELY AGREE ON EARLY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 6460 
     B. TEL AVIV 6247 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reason 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Labor Party Chairman Amir Peretz and Prime Minister 
Sharon tentatively agreed November 17 to call for national 
elections sometime between the end of February and the end of 
March, with both seeking to capitalize on their current 
political strength in the polls and move forward with their 
parties' political agendas.  Labor's final position depends 
on a scheduled November 20 Central Committee vote on whether 
to leave the coalition.  Peretz had earlier warned that 
unless Sharon agreed to a date for early elections, Labor 
would quit the coalition, leaving Sharon with a 45-MK 
minority government and vulnerable to no-confidence motions. 
In preparation for making good on his threat, Peretz 
collected on November 14 resignation letters from all Labor 
Party ministers.  In an interview with the daily Yedioth 
Ahronoth, Sharon acknowledged that Peretz's threat to leave 
the coalition has spurred him to the conclusion that early 
elections are best. 
 
2.  (C) Peretz's announcement, immediately after winning the 
Labor chairmanship November 9, that he intends for Labor to 
leave the coalition, mobilized the entire political spectrum 
to strategize over early elections.  Some Knesset factions 
called emergency meetings and some are discussing party 
lists.  Several opposition parties immediately proposed bills 
to dissolve the Knesset, but Peretz convinced the bills' 
sponsors to postpone a preliminary vote until November 21, 
after his meeting with Sharon.  Sharon, meanwhile, is meeting 
with other party leaders and has not announced officially 
that early elections will occur.  During a Likud faction 
meeting November 16, Sharon also refrained from addressing 
whether he will remain in the Likud Party or form a new, 
centrist party.  The prospect of Sharon's departure continues 
to rattle his Likud colleagues, who recognize that Sharon is 
a far stronger candidate against any contender -- and 
especially left-leaner Peretz -- than is Likud leadership 
contender Bibi Netanyahu.  A poll released November 16 shows 
that Sharon commands a clear lead of 19 points over 
Netanyahu, despite breaking news November 15 that Sharon's 
elder son, Omri, a Likud MK, was to plead guilty -- as he did 
the next day -- to criminal charges for illegally financing 
his father's 1999 Likud leadership campaign. 
 
3.  (C) Sharon has so far left unclear whether he is leaving 
the coalition door slightly ajar to other parties on the 
chance that a new coalition could govern until regularly 
scheduled elections in November 2006.  Sharon's current 
strength, both popularly and within his own party, argue for 
accepting early elections that all indicators show will 
return Sharon to the premiership for another four-year term. 
Knesset sources likewise believe that it would be 
disadvantageous for Shinui and Shas, the next largest parties 
after Likud and Labor, to join the coalition in the year 
leading up to elections.  On November 15, Peretz elicited a 
commitment from Shinui Party leader Tommy Lapid that Shinui 
would support early elections and not join Sharon's coalition 
when Labor bolts.  Shinui MK Chemi Doron predicted to Poloff 
November 15 that Sharon may even decide to jump the gun and 
ask President Katsav to dissolve the Knesset before either 
Labor leaves the coalition or the Knesset votes, possibly on 
November 21, to dissolve itself.  If Katsav approves Sharon's 
request, and barring the slim possibility that another MK 
could seek to form a new government, elections would take 
place in about three months (ref B).  Doron noted that Sharon 
used this course of action in November 2003, when he 
compelled early elections some two years ahead of schedule. 
 
 
 
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