US embassy cable - 05ANKARA6768

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006768 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 
TAGS: PREL, GG, ZJ, RS, TU 
SUBJECT: ENGAGING TURKEY ON ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b and d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Senior Advisor for Eurasia Steven Mann discussed the 
conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia during November 8-9 
meetings at the Turkish Foreign Ministry.  He encouraged 
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul to declare Turkey's support for 
Georgia's diplomatic initiative for South Ossetia.  In a 
follow up meeting, MFA DG Halil Akinci expressed misgivings 
about the Georgian plan but agreed it could be a start. 
Akinci described Turkish worries about Russia's creeping 
annexation of Abkhazia and complained that the Georgians are 
impeding Turkish ties to Abkhazia and blocking direct Turkish 
sea-borne trade with the region.  Mann informed him of an 
agreement reached among the "western" Friends to call a 
meeting of the Friends of the Secretary General for Georgia 
in New York to discuss the way ahead.  End Summary. 
 
Georgian Plan a Start 
--------------------- 
 
2,  (C)  In a November 8 discussion with FM Abdullah Gul on 
Eurasian conflicts, Ambassador Mann said the U.S. strongly 
supports Georgia's newly disclosed initiative for South 
Ossetia and urged Turkey to declare its support as well. 
Mann noted we are pressing Russia to cooperate with us on 
Georgia's initiative.  Gul said the Georgian Prime Minister 
had visited Ankara recently and Turkey was counseling the 
Georgians not to provoke Russia. 
 
3.  (C)  In follow up discussions on November 9, MFA Director 
General Halil Akinci described the Georgian plan as "OK, but 
with fatal flaws."  He asserted that the creation of a Free 
Trade Zone will legalize contraband, the establishment of a 
Georgian passport agency in South Ossetia in 2006 will never 
be accepted by the Ossetians, and the Joint Commission on the 
Crimes of 1991-92 will not work since practically everyone on 
each side is somehow implicated in crimes during the 
conflict.  The timing of the events foreseen in the plan is 
also flawed, he stated.  Still, he said, "we should support 
any step that helps."  He predicted Russian agreement with 
the Georgian plan since the Russians know it will fail.  Mann 
pushed back, saying that while much of the Georgian plan is 
aspirational, Georgia is now on the right path and needs 
encouragement.  Akinci admitted the plan could be a start if 
pressure could be maintained on the Georgians, who have a 
large credibility problem in Turkey. 
 
Abkhazia:  Georgians Blocking Turks 
----------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Turning to Abkhazia, Akinci detailed Turkish 
contacts with the Abkhazian diaspora and attempts to set up a 
meeting on confidence building, with the idea of seeing where 
the daily lives of the Abkhaz people could be improved.  The 
speaker of the Abkhaz "parliament" recently visited Turkey 
and "not all Abkhazians are in love with Russia," Akinci 
asserted.  However, the Georgians are hampering Turkish 
efforts to be a helpful counter to Russian influence.  The 
Georgian embargo is only directed at Turkey, not Russia; a 
Turkish cargo vessel was intercepted off the coast of 
Abkhazia in July.  This serves to strengthen Abkhazian 
dependence on Russia, contrary to Georgia's interest, 
according to Akinci. 
 
5.  (C)  Mann agreed that, of all the frozen conflicts, 
Abkhazia seems the most difficult.  Russia does not appear 
serious about reaching a settlement and is getting a "free 
ride" in the UN Friends of the Secretary General for Georgia. 
 Mann said the western Friends had agreed the day before in 
Berlin that the German coordinator of the Friends would ask 
U/SYG Guehenno to invite the Friends (without the Georgians 
and Abkhazians) to come to New York to discuss prospects for 
a settlement.  In that meeting, Mann said, the U.S. will be 
clear and forceful about the desire of four of the Friends to 
reach an equitable agreement, in contrast with the Russian 
stance.  The Abkhazians do not want Russian dominance but 
have little room for maneuver.  Meanwhile, "creeping 
annexation" is occurring, with 90 percent of Abkhazians now 
possessing a Russian passport and increasing Russian 
penetration of the economy. Mann said we need to push Russia 
and the Abkhazians to take small steps, including more 
cross-border trade. 
 
6.  (C)  Akinci agreed, saying the Abkhazians would like 
closer ties with Turkey, including unimpeded trade relations. 
 Akinci stressed the need for confidence-building measures 
that would have immediate results, especially in the free 
movement of goods.  The Georgians deny any embargo, but even 
humanitarian aid must go through Po'ti at the cost of delays 
and bribes.  This is causing Abkhazians to gradually leave 
the area while the rest fall under Russian dominance, Akinci 
asserted.  The Georgians claim they do not want this, yet do 
not behave accordingly out of fear of Russian retaliation, 
Akinci opined.  Akinci asserted there is off-shore petroleum 
in the Black Sea near the Georgia-Russian border and urged 
Mann to get the Russian geological surveys of the area.  The 
Russians will need to be convinced they will enjoy special 
privileges in Abkhazia and will share in the region's oil 
wealth.  Even without oil, however, Abkhazia is a rich asset 
for Russia and we could not expect Russia to give it up 
without a fight.  Meanwhile, closer ties with Turkey would 
give the Abkhazians an alternative to Russia's looming 
presence. 
 
7.  (C)  Mann responded that we need a recalculation of the 
negotiations, with the goal to prevent Russia's "creeping 
annexation" of Abkhazia and concluded the way ahead will be 
clearer following the upcoming meeting of the Friends in New 
York. Akinci complained that Turkey is not informed about 
what UN SRSYG Heidi Tagliavini is doing.  Avni Karslioglu, 
who will soon replace Akinci at the MFA as Akinci moves into 
his next assignment as Turkish ambassador in New Delhi, said 
that with the Abkhaz themselves being harassed in Abkhazia, 
the Georgians should understand it is in their interest to 
cooperate with Turkey, but they are emboldened by their 
recent weapons acquisitions and are "sticking to their old 
tactics and their oriental thinking."  "Peasant thinking," 
added Akinci. 
 
8.  (U)  Ambassador Mann cleared this cable. 
MCELDOWNEY