US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4602

C O N F I D E N T I A L TAIPEI 004602 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W, INR/EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2020 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: IS IT VOTE-BUYING OR VOTE-SELLING IN CHIAYI COUNTY? 
 
REF: TAIPEI 4356 
 
Classified By: AIT DIRECTOR DOUGLAS PAAL, REASON(S): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
 1. (C) EVEN KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU WAS TAKEN BY SURPRISE 
ON NOVEMBER 12, WHEN 10,000 KMT SUPPORTERS ARRIVED TO HELP 
HIM INAUGURATE THE CHIAYI COUNTY KMT MAGISTERIAL CANDIDATE'S 
OFFICE. TO DATE, THIS IS THE LARGEST NUMBER OF PEOPLE TO COME 
OUT FOR ANY KMT ELECTION RALLY DURING THE 3 IN 1 ELECTIONS. 
THE ELECTION OF THE DPP CANDIDATE IN CHIAYI COUNTY IS 
CONSIDERED GENERALLY TO BE A DONE DEAL, AND NO ONE ASSUMED 
THE DPP HAD EVEN MUCH REASON TO RUN A DYNAMIC CAMPAIGN 
(REFTEL).  IN FACT, THE RELUCTANTLY DRAFTED KMT CANDIDATE 
CHEN MING-CHEN HAD NO ILLUSIONS HE COULD WIN THIS RACE. 
POLITICAL OBSERVERS CONTEND THAT EVEN THIS SHOWING OF KMT 
SUPPORT DOESN'T REALLY INDICATE THE "MA EFFECT" CAN TURN A 
LOSER INTO A WINNER. 
 
2.  (C)  LONG-TIME AIT/K CONTACT, HO CHIA-JUNG, A COLORFUL 
(FORMER KMT, SWITCHED TO DPP, AND THEN JUMPED TO TSU) FORMER 
DPP 2001 MAGISTERIAL CANDIDATE IN CHIAYI COUNTY EXPLAINED TO 
AIT/K THAT THE SUDDEN AND UNEXPECTED APPEARANCE OF 10,000 KMT 
SUPPORTERS COMING OUT TO GREET CHAIRMAN MA CANNOT BE 
EXPLAINED BY MA'S SO-CALLED CHARISMA.  IN FACT, HO SUSPECTS, 
MA HAD NO EXPECTATIONS THAT HIS PRO FORMA CAMPAIGN VISIT TO 
DEEP-GREEN CHIAYI COUNTY COULD EVER DRAW A CROWD OF THIS 
SIZE.  HO COMMENTED THAT PEOPLE SHOULD REALIZE THE REAL 
SURPRISE IN CHIAYI COUNTY WAS THAT THESE TEN THOUSAND KMT 
SUPPORTERS DID NOT REALLY COME TO HEAR MA TELL THEM ANYTHING, 
RATHER THEY CAME OUT TO DELIVER AN UNSPOKEN MESSAGE TO THE 
CHAIRMAN: THEIR VOTES ARE FOR SALE. 
 
3.  (C)  IN CHIAYI COUNTY FACTIONS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN STRONGER 
THAN PARTIES.  THE KMT FACTION THERE, IN FACT, STRONGLY 
SUPPORTED WANG JYN-PING DURING THE KMT CHAIRMANSHIP ELECTION, 
EXPLAINED HO CHIA-JUNG.  HOWEVER, ONCE MA YING-JEOU WAS 
ELECTED TO THAT POSITION, THE CHIAYI COUNTY KMT FACTION FOUND 
THEMSELVES IN A PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT POSITION.  UNFAMILIAR 
WITH MA, BUT KNOWING HOW PRISTINE THE NEW CHAIRMAN'S IMAGE 
WAS, THE FACTION LEADERS INVITED MA TO COME DOWN TO CHIAYI 
TWICE.  HO SAID HE HEARD FROM SOME IN ATTENDANCE THAT THE 
MEETINGS WERE PAINFUL.  THE CHIAYI COUNTY KMT FACTION NEEDS 
MONEY AND RESOURCES FROM THE KMT CENTRAL OFFICE TO CARRY OUT 
ITS WORK IN THE COUNTY, BUT APPARENTLY MA NEVER OFFERED 
RESOURCES AND THE FACTION LEADERS FELT IT WAS TOO AWKWARD TO 
ASK SOMEONE LIKE MA FOR HELP WHEN THEY THEMSELVES HAD NOT 
BACKED HIM FOR THE CHAIRMANSHIP.  THOSE TWO MEETINGS, SAID 
HO, RESULTED IN NO AGREEMENTS OR ARRANGEMENTS.  THE CENTRAL 
KMT AND THE LOCAL FACTION COULDN'T EVEN COMPROMISE ON A 
MAGISTERIAL CANDIDATE, WHICH SAYS HO IS WHY NON-FACTION 
MEMBER CANDIDATE CHEN MING-CHEN WAS DRAFTED. 
 
4.  (C) HO CHIA-JUNG NOTED THAT THE KMT FACTION MOBILIZED 
THIS LARGE CROWD SPECIFICALLY TO GIVE CHAIRMAN MA A CLEAR 
VISUAL.  THEY WANTED HIM TO SEE THAT THEY HAVE VOTES TO 
DELIVER AND CHIPS WITH WHICH TO BARGAIN.  HO EXPLAINED THIS 
"SHOW" WAS PUT ON FOR MA TO LET HIM KNOW THAT TIME FOR A 
SERIOUS TALK WITH KMT FACTION LEADERS IN CHIAYI COUNTY IS 
RUNNING OUT.  IF AN AGREEMENT IS REACHED WITH CHAIRMAN MA 
OVER RESOURCES AND MONEY, SAYS HO, THE KMT FACTION LIKELY 
WILL DELIVER THE VOTES TO CANDIDATE CHEN IN CHIAYI COUNTY. 
 
(C)  COMMENT.  WINNING THE KMT CHAIRMANSHIP LEFT MA IN THE 
DIFFICULT POSITION OF HAVING TO FACE THE MULTITUDE OF WANG 
JYN-PING SUPPORTERS ACROSS THE ISLAND.  WHILE MANY WONDERED 
HOW THE BEHIND-THE-SCENES NEGOTIATING WAS GOING, THIS IS A 
DRAMATIC PUBLIC VIEW OF WANG JYN-PING SUPPORTERS OFFERING UP 
SUPPORT TO MA, ALBEIT FOR A SUPPOSED PRICE.  WHETHER THE KMT 
FACTION IN CHIAYI COUNTY WILL DELIVER VOTES OR NOT FOR THE 
KMT MAGISTERIAL CANDIDATE REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  HOWEVER, GIVEN 
THE GENERAL ASSUMPTION THAT THE KMT'S DRAFT PICK CANNOT WIN 
THE MAGISTERIAL SEAT IN DEEP GREEN CHIAYI COUNTY, ONE MUST 
WONDER IF THE GOODS WOULD BE WORTH THE PRICE CHAIRMAN MA 
MIGHT HAVE TO PAY. END COMMENT. 
Paal