US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI4599

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 004599 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SCENE SETTER: TAICHUNG CITY AND 
TAICHUNG COUNTY, KMT AHEAD BUT STILL CAUTIOUS 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1.  (U) Summary:  Kuomintang (KMT) candidates for Taichung 
City Mayor and Taichung County Magistrate, both incumbents, 
are comfortably ahead of their challengers according to 
published public opinion polls.  In Taichung City, the 
campaign atmosphere is muted with little visible election 
competition due to the large lead enjoyed by popular Mayor 
Jason Hu.  In Taichung County, however, the DPP is energized 
and hopeful that its anti-gambling platform will be able to 
unseat incumbent KMT Magistrate Huang Chung-sheng.  Due to 
the large number of undecided voters, the unreliability of 
public opinion polls, and the possibility of "last minute 
surprises," both parties are cautious about predicting a 
winner in Taichung County.  End Summary. 
 
Taichung City:  KMT Cautiously Confident 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) KMT Taichung City Chairman Mu Kui-hsin told AIT that 
55 percent of Taichung City voters support the Pan-Blue camp 
and 45 percent support the Pan-Green camp.  More 
specifically, Mu estimated that 35 percent of voters are 
strongly committed to the Blue coalition and 30 percent to 
the Green, while 30 percent are undecided and will vote 
according to the personal qualities of the candidates. 
Although incumbent Mayor Jason Hu is leading by a wide margin 
in all public opinion polls, Mu continued, Taiwan's polls are 
historically unreliable because voters are reluctant to 
reveal their true candidate preferences and because sample 
sizes are too small to be truly reliable.  Noting that KMT 
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's two earlier visits had a positive 
impact on Mayor Hu's re-election campaign, Mu told AIT that 
Ma plans to return at least two more times before election 
day, December 3. 
 
3.  (C) Chairman Mu told AIT that he expects the gap between 
Mayor Hu and DPP candidate Lin Chia-lung to narrow as 
election day nears and that he expects the final vote to be 
much closer.  The People's First Party (PFP) refused to 
cooperate on a common Pan-Blue candidate, Mu explained, in 
hopes of leveraging KMT support for PFP candidates competing 
in other districts.  PFP candidate Shen Chih-hui is stuck in 
the race now because, Mu surmised, were she to drop out at 
this late date her supporters would think she had made a 
"secret deal" with the KMT.  Mu insisted that, contrary to 
rumors, Mayor Hu is in good health (Note: Hu suffered a 
relatively minor stroke three years ago; he went on a 
television talk show last night, November 15, to demonstrate 
to voters how robust his health is now. End note.)  While 
continuing to stress Hu's  achievements as Mayor 
(construction of highways and stadiums), Chairman Mu noted 
cryptically that the party is also planning a few "special 
activities" during the final week of the campaign. 
 
4.  (C) DPP Taichung City Chairman Chen Ta-chun told AIT that 
according to DPP internal polls, DPP candidate Lin 
Chia-lung's voter support has risen to 22 percent while Mayor 
Hu's support has slipped to 40 percent.  Chen acknowleged 
that DPP suport in Taichung is declining, but insisted the 
party still has a chance to win since outside polls always 
underestimate DPP support.  Chen told AIT that the DPP will 
continue to focus on Hu's "problems" in hopes of gaining 
votes.  The DPP has attacked Mayor Hu for inflating his 
number of years in civil service, largely by including his 
years working for the then-ruling KMT, after he retired from 
the central government to run for Taichung Mayor in 2001; 
there are also sleaze rumors being circulated by unnamed 
sources that Mayor Hu is a homosexual.  In an odd note, 
Chairman Chen, acknowledging his own aspirations to run for 
Taichung Mayor, criticized DPP candidate Lin Chia-Lung as an 
"outsider". 
 
5.  (C) Tunghai University (Taichung) Political Scientist 
Wang Yeh-li separately assessed to AIT that DPP accusations 
against Mayor Hu will have minimal effect on the Taichung 
City race.  Professor Wang explained that voters in Taichung 
City come from all parts of Taiwan and have limited party 
identification, which makes election predictions especially 
difficult.  Professor Wang told AIT that DPP candidate Lin 
Chia-lung's greatest liability is his lack of personal ties 
to Taichung City, because many Taichung voters are 
uncomfortable with the DPP nominating an outsider.  The real 
reason the DPP nominated non-residents to run in Taichung 
City and County races, as well as in Taipei County, Wang 
explained, was to cultivate a younger generation of leaders 
for the future. 
 
Taichung County:  KMT Still Cautious, DPP Energized 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
6.  (C) Lin Chao-tang, a Section Chief in the KMT party 
headquarters in Fengyuan, told AIT that although KMT 
incumbent Magistrate Huang Chung-sheng continues to lead in 
public opinion polls, poll samples were too small -- around 
1,000 out of over 1 million voters -- to be reliable.  With 
KMT membership only about 40,000 county-wide, Lin said, most 
voters will end up voting for the candidates they know best, 
regardless of party affiliation.  While 60 percent of 
Taichung County voters traditionally vote KMT and Magistrate 
Huang brings a strong record as magistrate to the race, the 
KMT remains cautious and uncertain.  Although local factions 
no longer exert as much influence in elections as they did in 
the past, they are still influential in rural areas, which 
will befit KMT candidate Huang with his superior relations 
with the factions.  Lin predicted that the voter turnout 
would increase from 60 percent in earlier elections to 70 
percent, for which he credited the new "three-in-one" 
election format. 
 
7.  (C) DPP Taichung County Director Chang Wen-huai told AIT 
that the DPP out-polled the KMT in the 2004 presidential 
election despite the fact that the KMT support base 
outnumbers the DPP 55-45 percent.  Explaining that internal 
DPP polls show rising support for DPP magistrate candidate 
Chiu Tai-san, Chang insisted the election is much closer than 
commonly believed and will probably be decided by 
30,000-50,000 votes.  Candidate Chiu's campaign manager Li 
Chin-hsiang separately told AIT that the influence of local 
factions is on the decline, especially among younger voters, 
while the percentage of undecided voters is increasing. 
Since the latter are more independent in their voting, the 
DPP will campaign for their support by emphasizing Chiu's 
qualifications.  It will press the DPP's anti-gambling 
platform in order to capitalize on DPP candidate Chiu 
Tai-san's accusations that KMT incumbent Magistrate Huang 
illegally approved licenses for video arcades.  (Note: KMT 
Taichung County Magistrate Huang has issued a six-point 
statement refuting these allegations. End note)  Explaining 
that the DPP considers Taichung County to be a battleground 
race and a potential win, Wang and Li told AIT they are 
confident Chiu's popularity will continue rising and will 
catch his opponent by election day. 
Paal