US embassy cable - 05CAIRO8663

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 008663 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EG, Parliamentary Elections, Elections 
SUBJECT: EGYPT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS INDICATE FLAT NDP 
PERFORMANCE, SIGNIFICANT MB GAINS 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 8615 
     B. CAIRO 8602 
     C. CAIRO 8556 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Though official results are not yet out, 
much "unofficial" data on results of the first round of 
People's Assembly elections is in circulation as of late 
afternoon, November 16.  The unofficial results show a flat 
performance by the ruling NDP, complemented by a relatively 
strong performance by "independent" NDP candidates. 
Nominally independent candidates affiliated with the Muslim 
Brotherhood appear to have already doubled the MB's current 
representation in parliament, in only the first of three 
rounds of elections.  Reform-minded contacts we reached this 
afternoon were dismayed by the results, which they argued 
underlined the weakness of the NDP's "reform camp" and the 
impotence of the secular opposition, paving the way for the 
rise of an "illiberal" Islamist trend.  We recommend any 
public comment on the elections remain brief and factual. 
End summary. 
 
2. (SBU) As of late afternoon on November 16, we are still 
awaiting official announcement of results from the November 
15 runoffs for People's Assembly seats in 62 constituencies 
in the provinces of Cairo, Giza, Manoufiya, Minya, Beni Suef, 
Assiyut, and Marsa Matrouh. 
 
3. (SBU) Justice Minister Aboul Leil, Chairman of the 
Parliamentary Elections Commission, was reportedly scheduled 
to have a press conference late on November 16, but the time 
has not yet been announced. 
 
4. (SBU) However, large amounts of data on election results, 
generally described as "semi-official" in independent and 
opposition media is circulating in Cairo.  The picture we 
have put together, based on claims and reports from various 
sources indicates the following: 
 
(Out of 164 seats at stake) 
 
Official NDP Candidates       64 
Independent NDP Candidates          62 
Muslim Brotherhood Candidates 34 
Wafd, Taggamu', misc.                6 
 
(Note: We emphasize again that these figures are estimates, 
do not add up perfectly, and do not have official status. 
End note.) 
 
5. (C) Assuming the figures, or the general proportions, hold 
up in the official results, we note: 
 
-- Official NDP candidates will have won about 41 percent of 
the vote, hardly better than the 38 percent it secured in 
2000 - surely a disappointment to those who have been working 
to overhaul the party and its image since that time.  Most 
observers expect, however, that as in 2000, most if not all 
of the "independent" candidates linked to the NDP will return 
to the party to join the majority bloc. 
 
-- The MB will have more than doubled its presence in the 
People's Assembly (the MB held 16 seats in the outgoing 
Assembly) in only the first of three rounds. 
 
-- Secular opposition parties Wafd and Taggamu' fared 
miserably, scoring only two seats each.  Their participation 
in the seven party "National Front for Change" appeared to 
benefit them not at all.  In the outgoing parliament, Wafd 
and Taggamu' had five and six seats each. 
 
---------------------- 
Key Winners and Losers 
---------------------- 
 
6. (C) Among the prominent losers in yesterday's runoffs was 
Hossam Badrawi, a long-time protege of Gamal Mubarak, 
chairman of the education committee in the outgoing 
parliament, and a former leading member of the NDP's "reform 
camp." 
 
-- A conspicuous victor is Mostafa Bakry, publisher of the 
independent tabloid Al-Osboa.  Through his editorials and his 
paper's "investigative pieces" covering "American Zionist 
conspiracies" to divide, conquer, and even wage genocide in 
the Muslim world, Bakry has long sought to distinguish 
himself as Egypt's leading anti-American demagogue. 
 
-- Another conspicuous winner is Ragab Helal Hameida, the 
slippery Islamist kebab-vendor-cum-politician who joined Musa 
Musa's insurrection against Ayman Nour in the Ghad Party. 
Though Hameida was at least until recently a member of Musa 
Musa's breakaway "Ghad Party," he apparently ran as an 
independent. 
 
----------------- 
Initial Reactions 
----------------- 
 
7. (C) Ossama Al-Ghazali Harb, editor of the International 
Politics Journal at Al-Ahram Center, characterized the 
results so far as a "failure for the NDP's New Guard," 
referring principally to the absence of younger, 
reform-minded figures on the roster of official NDP 
candidates.  According to Negad El-Borai, a civil society 
activist and lawyer, the loss by Hossam Badrawi to 
NDP-dissident Moustafa Hisham Khalil in Qasr Al-Nil district 
is "symbolic of internal NDP divides," and of the fact that 
the NDP Old Guard remains the party's only effective way to 
achieve electoral success. 
 
8. (C) Hisham Kassem, publisher of Al-Masry Al-Youm, observed 
that the first round results suggest that "our strong ruling 
party is not so strong after all."  Kassem said that 
NDP-independent Hisham Moustafa Khalil, who prevailed over 
NDPer Hossam Badrawi, had "bought his way to power, every 
step of the way." 
 
9. (C) Asked to explain why the MB independents appear to 
have done so well, our contacts offered several points: 
 
--The relative neutrality of the security services, compared 
to 1995 and 2000 when they arrested MB candidates and blocked 
prospective MB voters from the polls, created an atmosphere 
where MB campaigns stood a higher chance of success.  The 
fact that the MB cadres are organized, motivated, and 
perceived as uncorrupt also contributed to their successes. 
 
--Moreover, the MB took advantage of the increased 
transparency that has so far characterized the 2005 polls of 
voting to position their own "monitors" and other activists 
at the polls which made it impossible for them to be 
displaced without blatant fraud or intimidation. 
 
--The "foolish" effort by some NDP candidates to rally voters 
using an appeal to Islam played into the MB's hands since the 
NDP's Islamist bona fides are suspect to many voters. 
 
10. (C) Borai opined that the GOE now faces a problem largely 
of its own making:  by putting "liberals" like Ayman Nour 
under "hard pressure" they had, again, left the Islamists as 
the most attractive force for Egyptians who are opposed to 
the ruling party.  Instead of bona fide reformist liberals in 
the new Parliament, said Kassem, the leading players will be 
demagogues like Moustafa Bakry (publisher of scandal-sheet 
"Osboa") and Ragab Hillal Hameida, of the pseudo-Ghad party, 
widely reputed as a con-man, thought to have been supported 
by elements in the GOE who were looking to discredit Ayman 
Nour. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
11. (C) This is an initial and preliminary reading of the 
first of three rounds of People's Assembly elections.  It 
will be critical to see if the Parliamentary Elections 
Commission confirms the MB wins when it announces the 
official results.  Despite the tremendous efforts of Gamal 
Mubarak, his circle of advisors and operatives, and even the 
President himself, to overhaul the NDP's image and present 
itself to voters as a newly reform-minded party with a vision 
for the future, the flat performance of the party's official 
candidates indicates that it has failed its first electoral 
test.  End comment. 
 
------------------- 
Suggested Press Guidance 
------------------------ 
 
12. (C) Given that results are not yet official, and given 
that we are only completing the first of three rounds of 
elections, we recommend any public comment on the process 
remain as concise and factual as possible, possibly along the 
following lines: 
 
 
-- Early indications are that the ruling National Democratic 
Party, and independents related to the NDP, have led the 
polling so far; 
 
-- We also understand independent candidates tied to the 
Muslim Brotherhood are making a significant showing; 
 
-- Security forces at the polls have generally conducted 
themselves professionally and impartially; 
-- Domestic civil society groups, who were accredited to 
monitor the polls for the first time, have registered some 
concerns about the process and have reported their intention 
to file them with the Egyptian authorities; 
 
-- This is just the first of three stages of elections.  The 
next two phases are scheduled for November 20 and  December 
1, each with likely runoff stages. 
 
 
RICCIARDONE