US embassy cable - 05PARIS7792

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 007792 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, EFIN, CD, FR 
SUBJECT: FRANCE ON CHAD: DEBY'S THE MAIN MAN 
 
REF: 11/9 BALL-D'ELIA E-MAIL 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah B. Rosenblatt.  Reas 
ons 1.4b,d 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  For Michael Deslaimes, the French MFA Chad and 
Togo Desk Officer, Idriss Deby's Presidency is 
"indispensable" to the tenuous stability of a hodgepodge 
country in continual tribal ferment.  Deslaimes told Africa 
Watcher November 15 that Deby is the right choice -- the only 
option -- for the next election cycle in 2006.  Deslaimes 
labeled efforts to nurture alternative presidential 
candidates misguided.  Guidance request para 6.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) Deby offers the best chance for reform in Chad, 
according to Deslaimes, who singled out the importance of 
military reform.  Deby's plan to retire 15,000 troops and 
recruit 10,000 new troops in their stead was a roadmap for 
the "de-ethnicization" of the military.  In Deslaimes' view, 
the draft legal program to manage and allocate oil revenue 
was also groundbreaking, especially when seen in a regional 
context.  Gabon's Bongo, who would never consider anything 
similar, found the whole initiative a big laugh.  Although 
the plan would put more revenue into the state treasury, the 
principle of transparent allocations was remarkable, and went 
well beyond World Bank expectations, Deslaimes remarked.  The 
plan carried political risk as well, exacerbating the 
discontent of Zaghawa critics who are already losing out on 
revenue.  Deby's reform of family law was another touchy 
matter, chiefly because it revises Islamic-related 
inheritance customs.  Deslaimes went so far as to describe 
Deby as "the guarantor" of "laicite" (secularism) in Chad, 
preventing Islamization and religious-based conflict. 
 
3.  (C) Deby's reform efforts deserve credit and require 
international assistance, Deslaimes averred.  France already 
provides an adviser to the Finance Ministry and would soon 
dispatch two additional advisers to assist with budgetary 
administration.  Deslaimes asked that the USG consider taking 
similar actions.  He recommended a coordinated international 
effort to provide, detail, second or otherwise contract 
technical advisers to the Government of Chad.  If the USG 
takes part, Deslaimes was confident France could secure 
German participation, and he expected Japan would likewise 
follow suit. 
 
4.  (C) Deslaimes was nonchalant in describing Deby's health. 
 He said Deby suffered from chronic over-indulgence in Chivaz 
Regal but also from a medical condition of the liver, "Cyst 
Hydriatique," common to the Zarghawa and derived from a germ 
found in mutton.  The combined effects were excruciating, 
Deslaimes imagined, and Deby needed some lifestyle 
correction.  While not dismissing health concerns out of 
hand, Deslaimes indicated a bullet was likely to prove more 
lethal. 
 
5.  (C) Deslaimes stated that France has a notional vision of 
how Chad would weather Deby's sudden departure from the 
political scene, whether due to assassination or illness. He 
declined to offer details, apart from suggesting any 
transition was unlikely to be strictly democratic and might 
parallel proceedings in Mauritania.  In any event, Deslaimes 
counseled that Deby's departure, voluntary or otherwise, was 
not a scenario to be encouraged.  In reference to possible 
alternative candidates, specifically from tribes in southern 
Chad, Deslaimes cautioned against viewing Chad along the 
lines of a Sudan caricature, e.g. as a North-South 
religious-based conflict where the West had instinctively 
rallied to southern Christian minorities.  That said, he 
noted the Arabic population in the North expected to take the 
presidency after Deby, as the next in line in a kind of 
informal rotation (that he attributed to historical accident.) 
 
6.  (C) Guidance Request:  Deslaimes asked for any 
information the USG could share about political activities by 
Ahmat Soubiane Hassaballah, the former Chadian ambassador to 
the U.S. whose tenure was cut short once he urged Deby to 
relinquish office at the end of a second presidential term. 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
Hofmann