US embassy cable - 05ROME3787

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 003787 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR TOWNSEND; DEPT FOR S/CT, EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015 
TAGS: KOLY, PTER, PREL, IT 
SUBJECT: SCENSETTER FOR NSC TOWNSEND'S VISIT TO ROME 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Anna Borg, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  Your visit to Rome comes at an opportune 
time to press the Italians for increased detail and 
transparency about their security plans for the 2006 Winter 
Olympic Games in Turin.  The Italian Ministry of Interior, 
which has been tasked with coordinating security for the 
Games, remains extremely sensitive about its ability to 
accomplish its goals without U.S. assistance.  You should 
stress with the Italians that this request for transparency 
does not indicate a lack of confidence in their ability, but 
that their continued unwillingness to share details is 
undermining a previously well-earned reputation in Washington 
for cooperation on counterterrorism  You should also thank 
the Italians for their continued cooperation on combating 
terrorist financing and discuss ways to enhance that 
cooperation.  End summary. 
 
Political Scene 
--------------- 
 
2.  (C)  National elections are tentatively scheduled for 
April 9.  PM Silvio Berlusconi's center-right coalition is 
down in the polls, undermined by internal leadership spats 
and continued economic stagnation.  The center-left also is 
plagued by internal disputes which, if it wins, will make 
effective governance difficult, but former European 
Commission President Romano Prodi recently won a triumphant 
electoral victory in the primaries.  Pending electoral law 
changes may slightly increase the odds for the center-right, 
and it is too early to deal Berlusconi out.  However, most 
political observers predict Prodi's center-left coalition 
will win in April. 
 
3.  (U)  Italy is our strongest ally in continental Europe. 
It is the third largest contributor of troops to MFN-I and 
funds reconstruction and justice projects in Iraq, leads 
ISAF, a PRT and a justice initiative in Afghanistan, just 
took over KFOR command in Kosovo, pledged $3 million to the 
UN Fund for Democracy, indicated it will fund the new 
Foundation for the Future for Middle East democracy 
initiatives, co-hosts Democracy Assistance Dialogue 
initiatives with Turkey and Yemen, and provided earthquake 
and hurricane relief for Pakistan and New Orleans. 
 
4.  (C)  The center-right has already accused Prodi of 
encouraging terrorist attacks on Italy through reckless calls 
for rapid withdrawal of Italy's troops from Iraq.  However, 
Italian public opinion remains overwhelmingly opposed to the 
war in Iraq and Berlusconi will be under increasing pressure 
to make public statements about plans to withdraw troops. 
Despite campaign rhetoric, the center-left has assured us it 
will coordinate any troop withdrawals with us and with the 
Iraqi government.  The center-right also believes it has an 
edge in using concern about terrorist attacks and growing 
unease about illegal (especially Muslim) immigration as 
campaign issues. 
 
5.  (C)  High public debt, a large deficit, rising social 
welfare costs and a stagnant economy are limiting 
Berlusconi's ability to maneuver in the face of growing 
domestic economic discontent.  Pocketbook issues will drive 
the campaign and be Berlusconi's biggest challenge, although 
Prodi has yet to offer any credible alternative economic 
policy.  The draft budget now being debated by the Italian 
Parliament may include painful cuts in many sectors.  This 
includes potentially dramatic (to about .85% of GDP) cuts in 
the defense budget and a 20% reduction in the overseas 
deployment budget that could undermine Italy's ability to 
sustain its overseas commitments. 
 
Turin Olympics 
-------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Following the London bombings, the GOI approved a 
stronger anti-terrorism law and began a crackdown of arrests 
and deportations of illegal immigrants and suspected 
terrorists.  However, Italy continues to be targeted in 
fundamentalist websites, and many Italian officials expect 
Italy will be attacked in the near future.  They are worried 
specifically about a potential attack during either the 
February Turin Olympics or the spring elections. 
 
7.  (S)  There have been no direct threats against Americans 
at the Games; however, anarchist groups remain active and 
there are Islamic extremist cells capable of becoming 
operational in Italy.  We, along with the British, the Dutch 
and the Canadians, are increasingly concerned that we have 
insufficient detail about Italian plans to prevent or react 
to incidents during the Games, either in Turin or in Italy at 
large.  The Italian Ministry of Interior, which has been 
tasked with coordinating security for the Games, remains 
extremely sensitive about its ability to accomplish its goals 
without U.S. assistance.  To adequately plan for any 
shortfalls in Italian operations, however, we need to first 
review those plans.  You will be meeting with Interior 
Minister Pisanu, Chief of Police DeGennaro and MOI Chief of 
Public Order (including Olympics) Tagliente.  With them, you 
should reiterate our request to see their detailed 
operational security plan for the Games.  We recommend that 
you stress that this request for transparency does not 
indicate a lack of confidence in their ability, but that 
their unwillingness to share details is undermining a 
previously well-earned reputation in Washington for 
cooperation on counterrorism. 
 
8.  (S)  Mission Italy has established a USG Olympics Office 
in Turin, which will include a 24/7 Joint Operations Center 
and a Threat Information Center to coordinate security 
liaison for unarmed DSS, FBI and USEUCOM security personnel 
with Italian law enforcement officials, coordinate with the 
USSS support for VIP visits, and provide Washington with 
integrated interagency sitreps during the Games.  The Turin 
Office will also coordinate logistical support for 
approximately 260 USG TDY personnel working both the Olympic 
Games and the Para-Olympic Games, provide American citizens 
services and manage press/public diplomacy for the USG 
presence at the Games.  Embassy Rome has established the 
Galileo Center, an interagency intelligence unit, to collect 
threat information and disseminate it in a format releasable 
to Italian law enforcement authorities.  With the support of 
DOS S/CT and FSI, Mission Italy will conduct two crisis 
management exercises in December, one in Turin focused on 
Olympic scenarios, and one in Rome focused on the possibility 
of attacks during Games elsewhere in Italy. 
 
Terrorist Finance/Asset Freeze for WMD Proliferators 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
9.  (C)  Italy is second only to the U.S. in the number of 
names it has contributed to the UNSC 1267 Committee for asset 
freeze. (Comment:  Italy has submitted over a third of all 
the names on the 1267 Committee list of individuals.)  We can 
significantly strengthen our ability to work effectively with 
Italy on terrorism finance and money laundering through 
increased policy-level dialogue.  Specific issues of interest 
would include:  (1) Italy's plan to submit a bill to 
Parliament which would specifically authorize freezing 
non-financial TF assets; (2) obtaining Italian support to 
help build an international mechanism to block property of 
WMD proliferators and their supporters; and (3) continue to 
refine our cooperation on sharing and evaluating our 
prospective TT names to the UNSC for asset freeze. 
 
SPOGLI