US embassy cable - 05MUMBAI2199

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUMBAI 002199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: SHIV SENA FACES STIFF CHALLENGE IN NOVEMBER 19 BY-ELECTION 
 
REF: MUMBAI 1528 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (SBU) Maharashtra state parliament by-elections scheduled 
for November 19 may represent a defining moment for Bal 
Thackeray's Marathi-based Hindu nationalist Shiv Sena movement. 
In the Malvan district of southwestern Maharashtra, erstwhile 
Shiv Sena leader Narayan Rane is standing for re-election as the 
Congress Party candidate against a Shiv Sena nominee after 
Rane's acrimonious departure from Shiv Sena last summer.  Rane's 
exit from Shiv Sena and his subsequent alliance with Congress 
and elevation to Revenue Minister in the state government's 
ruling coalition signifies the worst political crisis for Shiv 
Sena since its founding (reftel).  The outcome of the November 
19 vote could give Shiv Sena an opportunity to re-organize and 
re-establish its position in local politics, or it may stand as 
the beginning of an inexorable slide from power for the 
organization and its founding family, the Thackerays.  End 
Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
------- 
Former Shiv Sena Chief Minister Seeks Election With Congress 
Party 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
------- 
 
2.  (SBU) Following his bitter break with Shiv Sena ("Army of 
Shiva") founder Bal Thackeray last July over the role of 
Thackeray's son, Uddhav, in the party leadership, former Shiv 
Sena power broker Narayan Rane has joined forces with the 
Congress Party in one of the most dramatic moves in Maharashtra 
politics in recent years (reftel).  Rane, a former Maharashtra 
chief minister, resigned his position as Speaker of the 
Opposition and his seat in the Maharashtra legislative assembly 
after the fallout with Thackeray and his son.  Following 
negotiations with both the National Congress Party (NCP) and 
Congress, Rane subsequently joined the latter and was 
immediately given the cabinet-level position of Revenue Minister 
in Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh's cabinet.  Rane is now 
seeking re-election to his own long-held state parliament seat 
based in the Malvan district in the western coastal Konkan 
region of Maharashtra as the Congress Party's candidate. 
 
3.  (SBU) The Malvan district by-election is a hard-fought 
affair, with Shiv Sena pulling out all stops to defeat their 
former colleague.  Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena executive 
president, accompanied by a team of Shiv Sena all-stars, 
including former chief minister Manohar Joshi, his cousin Raj 
Thackeray, and Ramadas Kadam, legislative assembly opposition 
leader, are campaigning in Malvan.  An ageing Bal Thackeray was 
also expected to address Malvan campaign meetings.  For its 
part, however, Congress has limited its active involvement in 
the local campaign - no party leaders have campaigned in Malvan 
district, for instance.  Not all of its senior leadership seems 
ready to accept their longtime foil Rane with open arms as a new 
rival for influence within Congress.  Congress's ruling 
coalition partner, the NCP, while not fielding a candidate of 
its own, has offered only a tepid endorsement and "moral" 
support for Rane, according to local media reports. 
 
4.  (SBU) Rane, however, has long cultivated ties in the Malvan 
constituency, and his supporters are working hard to get out his 
core voters, many of whom appear ready to vote the man, rather 
than the party.  He is well-known in the district's villages and 
has pulled in the strong support of many long-time Konkan Shiv 
Sena supporters.  His long history of providing patronage also 
provides him with a well of owed favors and well-wishers to draw 
on locally. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
Conventional Wisdom: Expect A Rane Win, But Nothing Is Certain 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The local conventional wisdom among political pundits 
holds that Rane will win in his home constituency.  Mumbai 
Mirror News Editor Vaibhav Purandare, who has written 
extensively on Shiv Sena, told Poloff that he expects Rane to 
win easily.  Rane's ties to the local community, the loyalty of 
his supporters, and resentment among some long-time party 
members over perceived mistreatment by the Thackerays bodes well 
for him.  Parshuram Uparkar, Shiv Sena's candidate, is not 
considered a strong campaigner.  Rane, however, does face 
considerable obstacles and some in the media, such as 
Maharashtra Times editor Bharat Raut, suspect this election 
might be closer than expected.  According to Raut, many among 
the Malvan district's educated socio-economic elite have long 
resented Rane's high-handed, brash political style and might see 
this as an opportunity to be rid of him.  The Congress Party 
candidate has only won once previously in the Malvan district. 
According to Raut, the local district, which has seen recent 
growth among the Maratha community (Shiv Sena's traditional 
power base), might be hesitant to support the Congress Party, 
even with Rane as the party's local flag bearer. 
 
------------------------------ 
The Stakes High For Both Sides 
------------------------------ 
 
6.  (SBU) The stakes are high for both Rane and Shiv Sena.  For 
Rane, a loss means the end of his political career.  Congress 
and the NCP have signaled that this by-election battle is 
primarily a fight between Rane and Shiv Sena and blame for a 
loss will be Rane's alone.  A win, however, would rejuvenate 
Rane's stalled legislative career and could offer him the chance 
to stake a claim for the regional Congress leadership within a 
year or two. 
 
7.  (SBU) For Shiv Sena, this election may represent a defining 
moment in its struggle for continued relevancy in Maharashtra 
politics.  Rane's continued popularity appears to have caught 
the Thackerays and Shiv Sena leadership by surprise.  Unlike 
past leadership defectors, Rane has continued to draw media 
attention months after his break from the party and appeared to 
have committed supporters still within Shiv Sena's lower ranks. 
The resignation of three of Rane's Shiv Sena supporters on 
November 4 further embarrassed the organization's leadership. 
Rane claimed that at least a dozen more Shiv Sena state 
legislators were ready to bolt for the Congress Party.  Should 
Rane win, Shiv Sena may face a rush of defections immediately 
following the election, threatening its position as leader of 
the opposition in the short term, and its existence as an 
organized political force over the long term.  A win, however, 
would allow Shiv Sena to reclaim one of its strongholds 
(although one built by Rane) in the Konkan and would give it 
breathing room to reorganize in advance of next year's district 
contests and the 2007 Mumbai municipal elections.  Raut termed 
the election a real "acid test" for the long term viability of 
the party and the Thackeray family's hold on the leadership. 
 
8.  (SBU) The other major local political parties also have dogs 
in this fight.  Should Rane win and produce the defectors he 
claims to hold in waiting, the BJP would gain the upper hand 
over Shiv Sena as the most important local legislative 
opposition party (Shiv Sena currently has 59 seats in the state 
assembly, while its ally BJP has 54).  Should additional 
defectors win later by-elections with Congress, the NCP-Congress 
Party ruling coalition balance of power would shift in favor of 
Congress (NCP has 71 seats verses 68 for Congress). 
Furthermore, a weakened Shiv Sena might signal the decline of 
Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) as a regional and national 
political force. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Whatever happens in the by-election, it is clear that 
the result will produce repercussions far beyond the Malvan 
district and the Maharashtra legislative assembly.  A clear Rane 
victory and further defections from the Shiv Sena could well 
accelerate the demise of a regional party that has put its mark 
on Maharashtra politics for the past four decades.  Post will 
follow-up septel on the challenges facing Shiv Sena as it faces 
both a leadership succession and changing electoral demographics 
in Maharashtra.  End comment. 
OWEN