US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI8711

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 008711 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, IN, IR, India_Iran 
SUBJECT: THE COMMUNISTS THREATEN THE UPA AGAIN OVER 
UPCOMING IAEA VOTE 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 8681 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (U) While addressing campaign meetings in Kerala on 
November 15 Communist Party of India (Marxist) General 
Secretary Prakash Karat and Communist Party of India (CPI) 
 
SIPDIS 
General Secretary AB Bardhan demanded that the GOI change its 
stance in the IAEA regarding Iran's nuclear program.  Both 
men asserted that their parties would not "stand aside" on 
this issue and would oppose any GOI vote to refer Iran's 
nuclear program to the UNSC, and called on Prime Minister 
Manmohan Singh to declare the GOI position before the 
November 24 IAEA meeting.  Stating that India voted against 
Iran on September 24 only because of US pressure, Karat and 
Bardhan demanded that the GOI "repent" and "correct its 
stand" or "face the consequences."  They confirmed that if 
the GOI again voted against Iran, the Communists and their 
regional party supporters would raise the issue in 
Parliament, but they refused to specify what else the Left 
was prepared to do.  They expressed willingness to meet the 
PM in his capacity as Foreign Minister to discuss the 
upcoming vote in hopes of arriving at a consensus. 
 
2.  (U) This further salvo came as Iran reportedly canceled 
the scheduled visit to Delhi (reftel) by Deputy Foreign 
Minister Mehdi Safari. 
 
Comment - The Left on a Roll 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The Communists have determined that the IAEA vote is 
a win-win issue for them, and seem determined to use it 
against the UPA.  While they are unwilling to bring down the 
government, the Left repeatedly reminds the UPA that it does 
not enjoy a parliamentary majority and rules only with the 
Left's acquiescence.  The Left Front (LF) is also crafting a 
loose coalition of regional parties willing to support it on 
the IAEA vote and other issues.  The intent is to so isolate 
Congress, that it will feel compelled to back down.  By 
bringing up the prospect of Left Front/Congress talks, the 
Communists are leaving the door open for Congress to take a 
face-saving way out of its dilemma.  Should Congress decide 
on that option, the LF will trumpet the UPA turnaround as a 
major achievement and a sign of their growing clout.  We keep 
urging the GOI to act again in their best national interest, 
just as it did in September on Iran at the IAEA Board of 
Governors Meeting.  We are confident at this point that our 
concerns are being heard and that the Prime Minister has not 
yet decided how India will vote, if it comes to that, on 
November 24. 
BLAKE