US embassy cable - 05COLOMBO1965

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001965 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, CE, Elections 
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA:  BOTH SIDES CONFIDENT, CALCULATING WIN 
ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION EVE 
 
REF: COLOMBO 1943 
 
Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD.  REASON:  1.4 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  One day before the presidential election campaign 
insiders for both major candidates remained confident of 
claiming a decisive, if narrow, victory. Strategists for Sri 
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse seem 
sure that their contender will clinch a significant slice of 
the Muslim vote in the east, while planners for United 
National Party (UNP) candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe are 
counting on a swing vote in the south to put their man over 
the top.  As of mid-day on November 16, there had been no 
reports of major disturbances.  The local press on November 
16 carried a report about a Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam 
get-out-the-vote effort that appears to be spurious.  End 
summary. 
 
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UNP SAYS SOUTH SWINGING THEIR WAY 
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2. (SBU) With a moratorium on campaigning in effect since 
November 15, the streets of Colombo were largely calm (if not 
necessarily clear of now-illegal partisan banners and 
posters), and as of mid-day on the eve of the November 17 
presidential election, there had no reports of major 
disturbances or electoral violence anywhere in the country. 
 Voter turnout in most areas of the country, with the notable 
exception of areas controlled or influenced by the Liberation 
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the north and east, is 
expected to be high. 
 
3.  (C)  Campaign strategists for United National Party (UNP) 
candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe appeared undaunted by the LTTE 
decision not to encourage voters in Tiger territory to cast 
their ballots (Reftel).  On November 16 UNP MP and 
Wickremesinghe confidant Milinda Moragoda told the Ambassador 
and DCM that his party remains confident that its candidate 
can still pull off a victory, even without the 300,000 or so 
Tamil votes from uncleared areas.  UNP insider Dinesh 
Weerakkody told econ chief the same day that while his party 
was initially concerned about the LTTE position, the thinking 
now is that the Tigers' cold shoulder will actually help 
Wickremesinghe's chances in the south.  Weerakkody reported 
that two recent sets of UNP-sponsored polls both showed 
(perhaps not surprisingly) Wickremesinghe winning, with the 
more credible giving the UNP candidate a two percent edge, 
based on a favorable swing vote in the south.  Weerakkody 
added that the party is expecting the election to be largely 
peaceful, and credited outgoing President Chandrika 
Kumaratunga for helping ensure free and fair polls and the 
police with playing a positive role. 
 
 
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SLFP:  EDGE IN THE EAST 
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4.  (C) SLFP campaign planner Kanchana Ratwatte sounded 
similarly upbeat in a November 16 conversation with poloff. 
Like his UNP counterpart, Ratwatte also predicted a narrow 
margin of victory for his candidate--approximately 52-53 
percent, according to the party's most recent 
calculations--especially now that the UNP could no longer 
count on the vote in LTTE-controlled areas.  He discounted a 
November 16 banner headline in a pro-Wickremesinghe newspaper 
claiming that the LTTE had reversed its stand as UNP 
disinformation.  Turn-out to SLFP rallies by Muslim voters in 
the east had increased, Ratwatte claimed, and the party 
remains confident of capturing a large slice of the Sri Lanka 
Muslim Congress vote bank there. 
 
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LTTE:  NO GET-OUT-THE-VOTE 
EFFORT 
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5.  (C)  The November 16 editions of the pro-UNP 
English-language Daily Mirror and its Sinhalese-language 
sister paper Lankadeepa ran front-page articles, citing 
unsourced "reports," claiming that the LTTE, in an apparent 
about-face from a November 10 decision not to encourage 
voting (Reftel), had told Tamil National Alliance (TNA) MPs 
"to make arrangements to transport voters from uncleared 
areas to cluster polling booths located in government areas 
tomorrow to vote" and that LTTE propaganda vehicles had 
called on "the people of the northeast to cast their vote at 
tomorrow's election."  Lest any reader assume the LTTE might 
be telling people to vote for the UNP candidate, however, 
"none of the announcements carried messages about who to vote 
for," the report stated.  Three TNA MPs staunchly denied the 
report to us, however, maintaining that the LTTE had 
instructed that November 17 be observed as a day of mourning 
in Tamil areas and that people not show up for work.  The 
LTTE is "not happy" about the stand taken by either candidate 
on the peace process, TNA MP Mavai Senathirajah told us. 
(See Septel IIR from DAO about another press report of 
campaign machinations.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) Both campaigns sound genuinely confident of 
certain--if narrow--victory, an indication of just how tight 
this race promises to be.  While the LTTE position is 
discouraging, the absence of election-related violence so far 
is a positive sign that we obviously hope holds true on 
election day.  We will be watching the situation closely, 
assisted by informal Embassy monitoring teams in eight 
different districts, which will be observing the election 
process on November 17 and reporting their findings to us 
throughout the day. 
 
LUNSTEAD