US embassy cable - 05LAGOS1757

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001757 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, NI 
SUBJECT: CONTINUED INFIGHTING PLAGUES OPPOSITION PARTY 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reason 1.4 (D) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Summary:  In a late October twist in its ongoing 
leadership struggle, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) expelled 
faction leader Senator Mojisoluwa Akinfenwa for anti-party 
activities.  Akinfenwa responded with his own allegations 
that leadership rival Chief Bisi Akande had authored the 
expulsion, and that his removal was the subplot of a larger 
caper engineered by Lagos State Governor Tinubu to hijack the 
AD to his own ends in 2007.  The AD has been in tumult since 
its setbacks in the 2003 election.  The antagonists in this 
struggle have taken their competing claims to court in hopes 
of winning by legal edict what they could not resolve by 
political means.  End summary. 
 
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FACTION LEADER'S EXPULSION ELICITS COUNTER-CHARGES 
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2.  (U) The AD, the Yoruba-based opposition party, suffered 
another eruption in its ongoing leadership crisis with the 
expulsion of faction leader Akinfenwa.  AD vice chairman for 
the south-west, Alhaji Olatunji Hamzat, stated the Senator 
was expelled for "anti-party activities."  This term has 
quickly become a euphemism employed by the leadership of a 
party to get rid of internal opposition, particularly one's 
leadership rivals.  In that such rivalries in Nigeria's 
parties are more common than a cold, this term is quickly 
becoming hackneyed and meaningless.  For his part, Akinfenwa 
responded with hyperbole, dismissing the allegations as "an 
exercise in futility and the hugest joke of the century," and 
condemned the action as a violation of due process. 
 
3.  (C) Akinfenwa's rebuttal continued with charges that the 
current AD leadership crisis has been orchestrated by Lagos 
State Governor Tinubu.  Akinfenwa alleged that Tinubu had 
ignited the infighting as part of a plan to hijack the AD and 
steer it toward helping to form a new party in support of 
Vice President Atiku's 2007 presidential aspirations. 
(Comment:  Although made bitter by his sour grapes position 
of being on the losing side of this leadership tiff, 
Akinfenwa's observation is not devoid of credence.  For 
months, Tinubu has been huddling with different groups of 
political associates bruiting the idea of forming a new party 
with Atiku.  On November 9, a group of pro-Atiku PDP 
outcasts, including former PDP national chairman Audu Ogbeh, 
met to discuss just that - establishing a new party:  the 
Movement for the Defence of Democracy (MDD).  End Comment.) 
 
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BACKGROUND 
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4.  (C) Harkening to the political legacy of Yoruba political 
icon Obafemi Awolowo, AD showed itself be the mainstream 
southwest party during the 1999 elections by winning 
virtually all the elective positions in Ondo, Lagos, Ekiti, 
Ogun, Oyo and Osun states.  AD fortunes nosedived in 2003 
when it lost all but one of the states it controlled, with 
only Tinubu retaining the Lagos State governorship.  The 
internecine fingerpointing began once the reality of the 
debacle had registered.  The internal dispute has not let up, 
eventually leading to two separate national conventions held 
simultaneously on December 16, 2003 in Lagos and Abuja.  The 
Abuja convention elected Senator Mojisola Akinfenwa as its 
national chairman while the Lagos gathering selected former 
Osun State Governor Bisi Akande. 
 
5.  (U) The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) 
directed the party to conduct another national convention in 
order to recognize one of the two factions as head, or find 
another amicable solution.  Another national convention, 
attended by a majority of the AD's leaders, was held in Lagos 
on September 26, 2004.  INEC officials observed the event, 
tagged the Unity Convention, but the Akinfenwa faction 
boycotted it.  They protested Tinubu had unfairly stacked the 
roster of attendees with his yes men, thus making the 
decision taken at the convention a foregone conclusion 
unrepresentative of the true rank and file of the party. 
Akande was elected as the new chairman.  Following the 
convention, INEC formally recognized Akande's chairmanship. 
Of course, the saga did not end there. 
 
6. (C) A dissatisfied Akinfenwa took the new AD executive 
committee and INEC to court challenging the legality of the 
2004 Unity Convention.  In an interim decree, the court held 
that the two factions should maintain the status quo until a 
final ruling is made.  Following the court,s directive, INEC 
withdrew the earlier recognition given to the Akande group 
and said it would not recognize any of the factions pending 
the final adjudication of the case.  (Comment:  These AD 
insiders may not be the only ones dabbling with the script. 
President Obasanjo, who considers himself the senior Yoruba 
political figure, sees Governor Tinubu as a potential usurper 
of this role.  He thus wants to trip Tinubu at every 
available opportunity.  President Obasanjo evidently wrote 
INEC criticizing the prior decision to recognize the Akande 
faction as the national leadership.  To keep Tinubu from 
taking the political offensive in the southwest, Obasanjo, at 
the very least, would like to enervate the AD by keeping it 
roiled in a leadership squabble.  End comment.) 
 
7.  (C) INEC's backtrack was met by accusations from the 
AD-affiliated Afenifere, the most influential Yoruba 
socio-political group, that INEC was the agent of a scheme 
prepared by the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) to 
weaken the AD.  Yinka Odumakin,  Afenifere,s Publicity 
Secretary, told PolSpec the PDP wants to destroy AD so PDP 
 
SIPDIS 
could retain the southwestern  states it "dubiously hijacked" 
in 2003.  However, a PDP spokesperson told journalists in 
Abuja the PDP had no hand in AD,s predicament, advised the 
AD to look inward for solutions and stop blaming others for 
its problems. 
 
8.  (U) Afenifere is very concerned about the AD's prospects 
if the party rift is not mended.  Chief Olasupo Shonibare, 
deputy AD leader in Lagos but more an ally of Akinfenwa, said 
the factions must come together to challenge the PDP, and 
calls upon the faction led by Akande and Tinubu for 
suggestions of how to resolve the impasse.  Afenifere is 
determined to have a forum to promote Yoruba political 
interests.  If the AD split is not repaired soon Afenifere 
may likely try to fashion another party. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C)  The confusion and turbulence that engulf the AD 
leadership is part and parcel of Nigerian politics, and 
Yoruba politics has always been among the fractious.  Given 
the PDP's near stranglehold on the southwest, the throes and 
tics exhibited by the AD may well be the signs of a once 
healthy political organism now nearing the frontiers of its 
extinction.  In part, this is a result of self-destructive 
infighting; but the AD would not have gotten into such woeful 
shape without getting a little timely help from its enemies. 
Most likely, the infighting will continue, unity will remain 
elusive and the AD will stagger into 2006 and perhaps into 
2007 a divided if not soon-to-be broken house.  The prospect 
for the AD to recapture the Southwest come 2007 is dim and 
may be getting dimmer.  End comment. 
BROWNE