US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK7116

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007116 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand, China, BURMA 
SUBJECT: DAS ERIC JOHN'S MEETING WITH FORMER FOREIGN 
MINISTER SURIN PITSUWAN 
 
REF: A. A: BANGKOK 002255 
     B. B: BANGKOK 002261 
     C. C: BANGKOK 006855 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce.  Reason 1.4 (a and d) 
 
 1. (C) Summary.  In his meeting with EAP DAS Eric John and 
Ambassador Boyce, former Democrat Party Foreign Minister 
Surin Pitsuwan, a native of and Muslim MP from the South, 
reiterated his well-known pessimism on the situation in that 
region, but in newly negative terms.  Surin also presented 
some new, albeit vague ideas on Burma policy, outlined his 
frustrations with Prime Minister Thaksin's administration, 
gave a brief snapshot of relations with China, and talked 
about opposition party problems.  End Summary. 
 
A PESSIMIST ON (AND NATIVE OF) THE SOUTH GROWS GLOOMIER 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2. (C) EAP DAS Eric John and the Ambassador met with Democrat 
Party (DP) MP and former Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan on 
November 9 at DP headquarters.  Surin, a native of the 
southern province Nakhorn Si Thammarat, is a regular mission 
interlocutor on the situation in the South (refs A,B).  Long 
critical of the RTG's failings in handling the South, he is 
becoming even more pessimistic.  "I think the South is being 
mishandled very badly...it's frightening." According to 
Surin, some police and military officials he has talked to 
are open about their unwillingness to face an increasingly 
hostile situation.  As a result, more and more security 
personnel are holing up in their barracks.  Some police have 
even told Surin that the violence in the three southernmost 
provinces "cannot be solved."  The King himself, is "very 
concerned" about the South, according to Surin, who warns 
that the level of violence and deepening distrust between the 
Muslim and Buddhist communities is irreparable.  "It's gone 
too far...even if we (the DP) get back into power, (I'm) not 
sure we can solve it." 
 
DOWNBEAT ON BURMA, BUT SOME NEW, VAGUE IDEAS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C)   Surin agreed that the state of affairs in Burma was 
deplorable and criticized the Thaksin administration's policy 
of engagement.  Surin explained that under the Chuan 
government of the 1990's (when he was foreign minister) Thai 
policy was much more confrontational with the military 
regime.  This approach facilitated international discussion 
of and pressure on the junta in Rangoon.  Since coming into 
office in 2001, Thaksin has focused on trade, tourism and 
exploiting Burmese national resources.  In effect, he has 
"bilateralized" the Burma issue.  Thailand's newfound 
engagement with the regime protects it from international 
pressure, with Bangkok as the buffer.  According to Surin, 
Thai policy towards Burma also suffers from the "CEO-style" 
of the current Prime Minister.  Every decision has to be 
cleared by him, his family and inner circle, and invariably 
someone in that group is likely to have business interests 
that preclude new, tougher policy approaches. 
 
4. (C) Surin also echoed the concern among some NGOs that 
neither engagement nor isolationism has had much impact on 
the regime in Rangoon.  That said, Surin has an idea for a 
"vision" project funded by private NGOs designed to 
facilitate democratic change in Burma.  By presenting to the 
Burmese people a comprehensive vision of what their country 
would look like in twenty years if democracy and national 
reconciliation took root, Surin hopes to inspire a "people 
power" movement to bring down the military junta.  When 
pressed, Surin admitted that the details of this plan had not 
been worked out yet. 
 
THAI TIES TO CHINA 
------------------ 
 
5. (C) Surin expressed concern that, while relations with 
Beijing are "very close, very intimate," Thaksin's overriding 
focus on economic issues may be perceived as a willingness to 
do Beijing's bidding on other fronts. According to Surin, 
this has led the Chinese to think "we can do anything with 
the Thai." 
 
OPPOSITION POLITICS 
------------------- 
 
6. (C) Commenting on the recent by-elections (ref C) where 
the opposition picked up three new seats, Surin believes that 
the Thai people are waking up to the need for a larger and 
more active opposition party role in politics. For the 
Democrat Party (DP), whose stronghold is in the South, the 
recent violence puts them in a difficult position.  Southern 
voters see the DP as not doing enough to protect their rights 
from the heavy-handed security forces, while voters in other 
parts of the country believe that the DP isn't doing enough 
to help crack down on insurgents. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
7. (C) While hardly a non-partisan figure, Surin is less 
reflexively anti-Thaksin than some other opposition elders. 
Surin's portrayal of the situation in the South tends to be 
more grim perhaps than other "neutral" observers. 
Nonetheless, Surin's views have special credence given his 
academic background, broad experience, and extensive network 
of contacts.  His pessismism about the current landscape in 
the South--that the violence may be intractable and is 
destined to get worse--unfortunately is shared by many. 
 
8. (U) DAS John cleared this message. 
BOYCE